Stock market investments now or later and who?

Will Carter said:
I challenge you to start thinking about the market in a different way. Was it this news that caused this bounce or was it the fact that any firm or fund (the real market makers) that shorted some of this drop in the past few weeks all had converging profit targets on a 1:2 risk/reward ratio all at about the same point on the chart?
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It could have also been that the S&P500 did hit the 10% down level right after lunch, which may have triggered some buying.
 
Will Carter said:
You got this one right on the money though. We just trying to ride the coat tails of all the people you listed and their manipulations. That's the game.
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I think this is the key, tome.

I like to use a card analogy. A good poker player can absolutely tilt the odds in their favor by reading the players and knowing the odds and playing the odds. But even the best poker player will sometimes get beat by the idiot pushing in with pocket 2s catching 2 more on the reveal.

Charts, tips, history can give you some insight into market forces and human emotions and somewhat predict most likely happenings.
What drives me crazy, and I am not suggest @Will Carter is doing this, per se, but all too often stock bros will proclaim and confuse that the charts "caused" the action. The charts had no impact, they are just an indicator of what happened other similar times.

Back to the card analogy. Its a single deck game of black jack. Just because you can see (3) 2s in the discard...its less likely that the draw is a 2...but there is still a 2 floating in there somewhere...

Im a boring buy and hold investor in the market. It aint sexy, but Ill beat 98% of traders over the long haul. The 2% will either get lucky and get out forever, or they will end up billionaire ex-pats. There is no other option.
 
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Will Carter said:
I guess my point is this was a thread started about advice on when and what to invest in the stock market and anytime someone asks for or seeks out advice on this subject they're met with loud voices (media and salesman and individuals) telling them about the cherry they picked instead of actual advice. I'm just picking on you because you're the only one talking and the mutual fund salesman seems to have gone away.


Let's talk about these investments instead of random Tesla. What have been your recent moves and what's your plan here? Did you sell it all when you called the top back in February?


I challenge you to start thinking about the market in a different way. Was it this news that caused this bounce or was it the fact that any firm or fund (the real market makers) that shorted some of this drop in the past few weeks all had converging profit targets on a 1:2 risk/reward ratio all at about the same point on the chart?

Weekly chart sellers.
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Daily chart sellers

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You are definitely looking at the market through a different lens. I am interested in learning what you are doing, but a little scared after you stated how many hours you have spent to gain that knowledge, LOL.
 
Ron said:
... that the charts "caused" the action. The charts had no impact, they are just an indicator of what happened other similar times.
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Correct. The massive firms and funds made the charts look like they do. However, these big players will absolutely spend millions to make the chart print a good looking candle to entice others (retail...me) to buy/sell along with them. And on the other side they'll spend millions to print a good looking bar with the sole intention of reversing it after retail gets in and use their stop losses as liquidity to go the direction they want. You can see it happen daily on the smaller time frames.
drkelly said:
It could have also been that the S&P500 did hit the 10% down level right after lunch, which may have triggered some buying.
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10% down is a much more practical way of looking at it. Plenty of people using that logic to put more cash into the market.


Another thing on the large ETF's... It's easy to just think long... there's always cash on the sidelines waiting to buy in. It's what you're told do from and early working age. Save some to the side. Put it in your 401k. Buy some investments. So there's always a pile of cash waiting in the 401k fund managers accounts that need to buy in. Hopefully they're buying in a better times than the top, but it's sitting there needing to find a good spot to get in.

And ... if the SP500 goes to $0 and you lose all your money, we all got bigger problems than our retirement accounts...


EDIT: So here's my 'stock investing' tip: Don't. At least not individually. Unless you're willing to spend 1000 hours of your life learning and trusting a price action system, or studying balance sheets and news feeds. I think my first post in this thread describes what you should educate yourself on real quick with order entries. Buy some sp500 - SPY (or VOO or whatever your brokerage has) every time it drops 5% from the high. Then buy some more if it goes 10% from the high. Then sell some every time it raises 5% and 10% from the point at which you bought. Break your total position size up into thirds. Maybe 1/3 stays in all the time. The other 2 1/3's get bought and sold on those 5 and 10% moves.
 
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Dang trade war heating up over wine and whiskey, LOL.
 
The S&P500 broke below the 10% level that happened after lunch yesterday. I think there is more downside ahead.
 
And yeah, I pracitce what I'm preaching here daily...
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Ok last post unless somebody has any questions moving forward.

Beauty of a buy signal on the last hour of the SP500 futures market (ES1!) yesterday. I bought some to hold over night. Just sold my last contract as we approach the top of the trading range and out and done for the day.
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How did I make that decision? That's a trading range. The great signal was at the bottom of the trading range and there was a clear path to get 2:1 risk reward before we had to break through the top of the range. That's it. No wars. No president. No twitter post. No earnings announcements...
And by and large that's how people with way more money than us are playing the game too. And it applies to any time frame you want to play on. Just pick one.


At 10:00 there was some "bad" economic news:
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A gauge on how the general public feels about the economy. I bet alot of those people watching for that news hit the sell button when they saw the poor results. But all the firms (and me) sat there and bought up all their sell orders and we're moving higher.

And that's the way they do it...

If SPY (VOO, etc whatever all the same) closes above 564.32 in the next hour there's room above for a 4-5% gainer of a day.

Happy investing.
 
Good end to the week, hopefully everybody continues to calm down over the weekend.

(just a few stocks I follow in google finance)

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Tesla could be in for a BIG drop. Left wingers are going nuts because of Musk's involvement with DOGE. They are selling their cars, and protesting at dealerships. This could be a VERY interesting year for the company. I'm probably out on being a buyer. I'm going to have to watch it closely.
 
drkelly said:
Tesla could be in for a BIG drop. Left wingers are going nuts because of Musk's involvement with DOGE. They are selling their cars, and protesting at dealerships. This could be a VERY interesting year for the company. I'm probably out on being a buyer. I'm going to have to watch it closely.
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I know I said I was done. It’s just funny. I had Tesla on list from where I was looking at it last week. Around 12:00 today I thought to myself that Tesla could be a buy today. Didn’t know anything about the news.

So now that I know some news, Tesla is definitely a half position buy at the close today. Stop loss under 212.11. Holding to profit target 283.36.

If we can run all these short news players stop losses above 251.84 and close above that’s in for full position buy.

People who bought on Tuesday of last week already made 1:1 profits.

This is all bullshit. Cause I don’t even have an equities account to play with. But hey, it’s the internet…
 
Will Carter said:
I know I said I was done. It’s just funny. I had Tesla on list from where I was looking at it last week. Around 12:00 today I thought to myself that Tesla could be a buy today. Didn’t know anything about the news.

So now that I know some news, Tesla is definitely a half position buy at the close today. Stop loss under 212.11. Holding to profit target 283.36.

If we can run all these short news players stop losses above 251.84 and close above that’s in for full position buy.

People who bought on Tuesday of last week already made 1:1 profits.

This is all bullshit. Cause I don’t even have an equities account to play with. But hey, it’s the internet…
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You lost me with your last sentence.
 
drkelly said:
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You lost me with your last sentence.
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What? I’m just saying I’m not really taking this trade because I don’t have any means of taking it. I only have futures accounts so can’t trade stocks. The 401k is full in other stuff.

But I’ll call it as it goes. You see my first two calls for stop loss and profit target. We’re either losing .5% or we’re making 1% on this from our imaginary money fund.
 
Will Carter said:
What? I’m just saying I’m not really taking this trade because I don’t have any means of taking it. I only have futures accounts so can’t trade stocks. The 401k is full in other stuff.

But I’ll call it as it goes. You see my first two calls for stop loss and profit target. We’re either losing .5% or we’re making 1% on this from our imaginary money fund.
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Ahh, OK, I didn't realize that. I've never heard of futures only accounts, but I'm just a very simple investor with an E-trade account and a 401k. I don't understand a lot of what you post.
 
So say you're a feller that can afford to swing seven or eight figures on a politically sensitive stock. Probably no skin off your game to throw a few thousand to a couple of mouth breathers to go start some news worthy trouble that might influence the liquidity of your stock purchase.

Hello TSLA.

The buy signal was there before the news. They want to buy... alot... They created the negative news. The sheeps saw the news and said "Oh, I should sell." Easy liquidity to buy for the aforementioned feller. Because in order for the public to sell to somebody (either short or sell out of longs) there's gotta be a buyer. And that was he/she/me.

And that's how the game works whether you want to believe it or not. Somebody always knows more and has bigger pockets than you and the only thing you can absolutely trust and figure on is the chart.


Our TSLA stop loss can now be moved to 230.04. Today was a big bar so I'd probably not buy the close since we're so close to the 2:1 target. But through some figuring and measuring I'd be a buyer at around 262.00 to add on the rest of our position so we're swinging a full position size and trying to increase our imaginary fund 3% in the next couple weeks. If we hit our initial profit target (which can now be adjusted slightly to 284.56 because of a better buy signal last Thursday) in the extended trading hours we can change our game plan on the next portion of the buy.


So yeah, stocks are dumb, go buy some SPY.
 
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And there we go. We made our money in the pre-market and now we wait for further instruction from the chart.

To further illustrate the point of how the big players only care about risk:reward, check out the big bear bar (selling out of longs) as soon as we hit that 2:1 profit target at 284.56. Biggest selling bar in weeks on the hourly.

Happy trading.
 
Will Carter said:
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And there we go. We made our money in the pre-market and now we wait for further instruction from the chart.

To further illustrate the point of how the big players only care about risk:reward, check out the big bear bar (selling out of longs) as soon as we hit that 2:1 profit target at 284.56. Biggest selling bar in weeks on the hourly.

Happy trading.
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Good call. I didn't think it would pop up that much. It think it got as low as 222 on this recent dip.

1st quarter earnings will come out at the end of April. They will most likely not be good. I think TSLA is going to have a rough year. I won't be surprised if the stock goes below $150 or maybe even below $125 or $100 later this year.

The negative news surrounding TSLA isn't fake news. My sister lives in DC, and has a friend who is selling her Tesla at a $15k loss because she hates Trump and Musk. There are a lot of very irrational Democrats out there. Dumb.
 
benXJ said:
Musk doesn't need to pay people to make himself look bad…
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What? This isn’t Musk doing this.

drkelly said:
1st quarter earnings will come out at the end of April. They will most likely not be good. I think TSLA is going to have a rough year. I won't be surprised if the stock goes below $150 or maybe even below $125 or $100 later this year.
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Well then start shorting now cause it’s a higher price.

But you won’t. Cause you’re in the vast majority of the public who is only around for the dopamine hit on the 50/50 chance something does go your way you can say I told you so.

You know enough about the clouds to say it might rain, but nobody cares if it doesn’t

Same reason you won’t take actionable steps with your Voo or Qqq holdings. If it goes against you it’ll feel like you were wrong.

This is a very real thing in trading. People will lose life savings just to not hit the exit button on a trade and have to say “I was wrong”. As long as you’re holding there’s hope in the future that you won’t have to be wrong.


You should pursue being a financial advisor.
 
Will Carter said:
Same reason you won’t take actionable steps with your Voo or Qqq holdings. If it goes against you it’ll feel like you were wrong.

This is a very real thing in trading. People will lose life savings just to not hit the exit button on a trade and have to say “I was wrong”. As long as you’re holding there’s hope in the future that you won’t have to be wrong.
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This is why I have someone do it. I dont have the knowledge (not hard to solve) or the time (lot harder to solve) to watch it and make the right move at the right time. I'm also content with getting good returns consistently over a great return maybe.
 
"So say you're a feller that can afford to swing seven or eight figures on a politically sensitive stock. Probably no skin off your game to throw a few thousand to a couple of mouth breathers to go start some news worthy trouble that might influence the liquidity of your stock purchase."

Musk fits this description, many others do too
regardless, no need to pay anything to make Musk look bad
not to mention the thousands of Russian/Chinese bot farms flooding reddit with "elmo is an idiot" posts
 
drkelly said:
Get some help dude. You've got a real attitude problem.
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Oh. It’s not meant to be that way. You’re just the only one responding so I’m just using you as an example of the populace as to why people (yourself included) should challenge any public (news, interweb, medias) opinions on which way things are going to go.

From what you’ve told us your real stock market opinion is to buy and hold popular ETF’s. Not buy and sell individual stocks. And I agree with that opinion for the most part. Just buy at opportune times. Not just pile money in your 401k all willy nilly.

Save up. “The Asshole Fund” starts 2026.
 
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