Automotive bubble....has it burst?

shelby27604

shelby27604

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Location
Efland NC
I have been shopping for a used wrangler and a new tow pig for a couple of months now.....in the summer/fall it seemed like the used car market was keeping pace with the real estate market. You had minutes if something was well priced (or even over priced) to get it, before someone else snapped it up. Lately a lot of the vehicles I have been seeing seem to sit, listed with prices stalled and/or the occasional price cut. What is everyone else seeing? Are used car prices getting back to normal or is this a winter / post xmas slow down....and prices are going to go crazy in spring again?
 
I have an automatic search I setup when I was still hunting for a new Bronco, and a lot of the way overpriced ones I was seeing at first are now getting big cuts on the asking price, most now within a few thousand of MSRP, I think the new market at least is starting to settle back down, and barring more supply chain problems, I think that will cascade down to the used market.
 
zuke said:
I have an automatic search I setup when I was still hunting for a new Bronco, and a lot of the way overpriced ones I was seeing at first are now getting big cuts on the asking price, most now within a few thousand of MSRP, I think the new market at least is starting to settle back down, and barring more supply chain problems, I think that will cascade down to the used market.
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Was talking to a bobcat salesman. He said he can’t get new skid steers in due to a single chip back ordered for 2 months. So not so sure on that.
 
No hell on the fore sale section has a 2012 250 salvaged title with over 100,000 miles for like $32,000. Salvaged title, over 100,000 miles, $32000 not no but hell no
 
Couldn’t tell you about this very second, but When I bought my navigator 2 months ago, I had to buy it sight unseen. As the dealer told me, Navigators didn’t move much in price since they were higher priced to begin with. There were no rebates, but sticker didn’t move up or down. However, since Ford and Chevy comparables did sky rocket, it pulled the ‘lower level’ comps up to the higher level vehicles. I missed out on 3 navigators after being in touch with the dealer within minutes of ‘coming soon’ listings. I asked for pics, and by the time I got them (2-4hrs later) they had sold. I asked who had the time to be wandering Lincoln dealerships and buying these things. Dealer told me they had lists of people who made requests to ship to sight unseen. So a day or two later that’s what I did.

All that being said, I know there have been several (if not all) months over the last two years where production has outpaced purchases (from ford anyway). So I never really understood the shortage/panic buying to begin with. Which leads me to believe, people are running out of stimmy money (wait until tax time), or what’s on the lot just isn’t the ‘right’ thing, the sales demographic isn’t right for ‘that’ vehicle, the ‘right’ vehicles are outpacing purchases now, or some combo of all of them.
 
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No not yet,not on lo mile 7.3's anyway.
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I don;t think you will see it catch up until dealers are all stocked on new inventory. That said, have seen some more reasonable slightly used trucks listed, but still at least 5k over what i consider top dollar. Then again 90's trucks are listed for a premium. lol Id like a beater 12v 5spd, but not for these prices. But then again i like a deal.. lol and not paying 12k for a clapped out rust bucket.
 
83oldyoda4x4 said:
I don;t think you will see it catch up until dealers are all stocked on new inventory. That said, have seen some more reasonable used trucks listed, but still at least 5k over what i consider top dollar.
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It always amazes me how people throw out the "you cant afford it anyway" line when someone comments about the price.That must be the go to come back.
 
1-tonmudder said:
It always amazes me how people throw out the "you cant afford it anyway" line when someone comments about the price.That must be the go to come back.
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All i know is these used car dealers and some banks that are financing a120% of the vehicles value..... There are going to be a ton of people upside down when the market corrects.
 
I've been checking KBB value on my truck pretty regularly. It fluctuates by a couple thousand but has been in the same ballpark for at least 6 months, even though the truck is getting older (I'm not putting any miles on it though).

Everything that I'm looking at to purchase that is anywhere close to a good deal goes quick, but I have noticed some of the higher priced and super low mileage for the age vehicles are sticking around longer.
 
While we are on the subject anyone pay attention to their vehicle values when you renew you tag??? Jesus , my 8 year old truck went up 5k in value in year. Wanting that tax $$$

Tax dept wouldn't budge said they were going off of nada i think and avg recent sales.
 
I just put a new long block in my 06 F-350 and have thought about selling it based on what they are asking(bringing??) for used diesel trucks.but I would be right back looking for a replacement in the same market I sold in.
 
83oldyoda4x4 said:
lol Id like a beater 12v 5spd, but not for these prices. But then again i like a deal.. lol and not paying 12k for a clapped out rust bucket.
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I saw one of those sell for around that earlier this week, and it was a pretty clean truck according to the new owner. But it was definitely an outlier to what I normally see them listed for.

1-tonmudder said:
No not yet,not on lo mile 7.3's anyway.
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I'm seeing first gen Ram CTD being listed for that much too. Market for clean 12v and 7.3s is ridiculous.

Duane
 
I dont think we will see a normal again. dealers are realizing people will buy many vehicles sight unseen. I think the future of auto dealerships is going and ordering them so they dont sit on stock. a Salesmen at Reed liar chevy told me that. he said insurance rates are cheaper because they have less assets on the lot. they still sell the hell out of them and now there is hardly no prep and wait times. I got lucky and had to drive to Rockingham to pick up my 2500 i paid 47k for mine got 5k off for XMAS and now a like truck runs 56-60k
 
Most predictions indicate the market will drop by about 30% on used cars by fall of 2022, they are currently up about 40%. I think due to inflation of the dollar you wont see it go back exactly to where it was.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2021/12/used-car-prices-a-bubble-waiting-to-pop-kpmg-report-says/#:~:text=The%20KPMG%20report%20predicts%20chip,percent%20from%20today's%20elevated%20values.

My personal thought is that obviously every corporation is in business to make money. Auto manufacturers make money selling new cars and servicing cars but generally service newer cars, warranty claims, and cars just a few years outside of warranty. They are taking huge losses by not having the inventory to sell and also setting themselves up for reduced service profits in coming years due to there being less vehicles from the covid years produced. They are ready to stock the lots!

I hate it for the people that bought 2016 used car or truck in late 2021 and paid the same amount that it was purchased new for. People will be so upside down its not even funny.

If you can afford to sell a car or truck right now and wait it out you would probably in good shape, selling what you have for the most profit you will ever see and being patient for the market to turn around. Never before and probably never again will we see the used car market appreciate. Im not talking about collectables, classics, stuff like that.
 
For me, the automotive bubble popping is more of a question of the used car market, but I do appreciate that the used market will not normalize until the new car market does.
For me, the slow down seems apparent most in the used vehicle market, where I am seeing overpriced trucks that would have been gone in minutes, sit for weeks.

The classic car market is crazy too....it feels a lot like early 2000's when we first started seeing 69 Camaros rolling across the auction block for $50k, then all of a sudden the rust bucket in your back yard was worth $15k because you could slap it on ebay and the entire country could lay eyes on it, and gamble they had the next numbers matching barn find.

I had hoped to find something in decent shape, just off lease.....but I absolutely refuse to pay more than MSRP when the truck was new for a truck that is 3-8 years old with almost 100k miles on it.
 
My son graduated college in Dec and is kinda looking for a new-er truck.I told him he picked a terrible time to be buying.Its getting to where the average car guy isnt gonna be able to buy an old car.
 
R Q said:
Well post up what you're looking for so maybe we will see somethging local and can let you know.
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2000-2006 suburban 1500/2500 under 125k and around $16k. Don't want to finance but might have to if it's low miles and not tooo over budget.
 
CarolinaHD said:
2000-2006 suburban 1500/2500 under 125k and around $16k. Don't want to finance but might have to if it's low miles and not tooo over budget.
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speaking of the new tahoes and yukons. I wanted a new one and test drove a SLT 2 weeks before i bought the tow pig and the price tag was $59,000 USED granted it had about 14k miles but still .
 
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