Housing market trash

rockcity said:
Housing shortages, much like unemployment must be separated out by region.

Nationwide, we are 20mm houses short, but around your area, there may be a surplus of certain type of homes which don’t match the demographic that’s actually needs houses in your local.

If we build 20mm, $1mm homes, we will still have a housing shortage because not everyone is buying that $$$ home.

The shortage is overall, but is a mix of different types of homes, but likely mostly of median and below homes. That price point lends well to new buyers entering the market or renters that can’t afford their own house. In Greenville, there isn’t a population or jobs to support a $1mm house that will sell in 48 hours; it will sit for months. Charlotte and Raleigh are different; there are many more of those buyers and the house won’t sit as long.

So there really isn’t an easy answer to your question other than it depends. You can’t have a surplus of homes in a specific area, overpriced, and in an area where the population doesn’t exist (or doesn’t want to move to) to support those homes, and compare it to a national # and say there isn’t a shortage. You may have a surplus in your area but then there is an equally depressed market somewhere else. Like NYC, nationwide the unemployment rate is reasonable, but NYC has a rate twice that of the national average.
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Now we’re getting somewhere…and actually starts approaching the answer to my question. To make the blanket statement that there’s a housing shortage, feels a bit disingenuous and like it’s going for nothing more than shock factor. What I want to see is ‘we’re 4mil homes short for the $50-100k market, which is 20% of the overall shortage’…‘we’re 10mil short in the $100-150k market, which is 50% of the overall shortage’…so on and so forth. If it is the lower income brackets, that’s no real surprise as they tend to be more sensitive to market/personal fluctuations in general, and I would say it’s somewhat expected for someone working the cash register at Mickey D’s to not be able to get their own place. And also expected for folks that invest in lower valued properties to have difficulty finding what they’re looking for when prices sky rocket. If I’m looking for a target demographic, I look for the trends and try to capitalize before they happen, not be reactive and then say the market dried up. Then normalize that for a given area/region, then normalize that to historic home prices to recalibrate who is in what bracket(is the ratio the same) and an overall normalization for the 20mil short to account for people like my younger sister who wants a house but can’t really afford any bracket. And for me, that should be easily enough calculated…of the folks that apply for the loan, the banks seem to max at <40% debt to income overall including the mortgage. Then what is the ratio of open housing that’s above the market that’s short for a given area. The housing industry has never interested me, maybe those answers are out there…if we know we’re 20mil short, we must know who, where and what demographic, right? And then what’s the reality of a new $100k house in Raleigh/Charlotte…or where/whatever the shortage is?
 
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UTfball68 said:
Now we’re getting somewhere…and actually starts approaching the answer to my question. To make the blanket statement that there’s a housing shortage, feels a bit disingenuous and like it’s going for nothing more than shock factor. What I want to see is ‘we’re 4mil homes short for the $50-100k market, which is 20% of the overall shortage’…‘we’re 10mil short in the $100-150k market, which is 50% of the overall shortage’…so on and so forth. If it is the lower income brackets, that’s no real surprise as they tend to be more sensitive to market/personal fluctuations in general, and I would say it’s somewhat expected for someone working the cash register at Mickey D’s to not be able to get their own place. And also expected for folks that invest in lower valued properties to have difficulty finding what they’re looking for when prices sky rocket. If I’m looking for a target demographic, I look for the trends and try to capitalize before they happen, not be reactive and then say the market dried up. Then normalize that for a given area/region, then normalize that to historic home prices to recalibrate who is in what bracket(is the ratio the same) and an overall normalization for the 20mil short to account for people like my younger sister who wants a house but can’t really afford any bracket. And for me, that should be easily enough calculated…of the folks that apply for the loan, the banks seem to max at <40% debt to income overall including the mortgage. Then what is the ratio of open housing that’s above the market that’s short for a given area. The housing industry has never interested me, maybe those answers are out there…if we know we’re 20mil short, we must know who, where and what demographic, right? And then what’s the reality of a new $100k house in Raleigh/Charlotte…or where/whatever the shortage is?
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The answer, again, needs to be regional. A $225k median home in NC isn’t the same in NY or CA or FL, etc. Too many variables in cost of living from area to area to break it out by $ for it to be if any real value. Same as wages. A $100k salary in NC may be pretty nice to most folks but in NYC, LA, SanFran, etc, it won’t get you much.
 
The only real "fix" is a cultural change. Acceptance of living at home w/ parents longer, having roomates, etc... more people leveraging what is available and just making it work instead of realy "needing" to have you own space.
The vast majority of the rest of the world lives this way, multiple generations under one roof, and/or that being a home that was handed down by a prior gen.
IMO its just like the massive hesitation and blockaides against mass transit discussed in the other thread.
This is all wrapped up in the American ideal of individualism. I'm not saying that's bad... but given teh situation, we either have to have a shift or be prepared to come up wit hsome other way to get nore housing available for the right markets as mentioned above.
 
RatLabGuy said:
The only real "fix" is a cultural change. Acceptance of living at home w/ parents longer, having roomates, etc... more people leveraging what is available and just making it work instead of realy "needing" to have you own space.
The vast majority of the rest of the world lives this way, multiple generations under one roof, and/or that being a home that was handed down by a prior gen.
IMO its just like the massive hesitation and blockaides against mass transit discussed in the other thread.
This is all wrapped up in the American ideal of individualism. I'm not saying that's bad... but given teh situation, we either have to have a shift or be prepared to come up wit hsome other way to get nore housing available for the right markets as mentioned above.
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Move your in-laws into your house. You first:flipoff2:
 
UTfball68 said:
Now we’re getting somewhere…and actually starts approaching the answer to my question. To make the blanket statement that there’s a housing shortage, feels a bit disingenuous and like it’s going for nothing more than shock factor. What I want to see is ‘we’re 4mil homes short for the $50-100k market, which is 20% of the overall shortage’…‘we’re 10mil short in the $100-150k market, which is 50% of the overall shortage’…so on and so forth. If it is the lower income brackets, that’s no real surprise as they tend to be more sensitive to market/personal fluctuations in general, and I would say it’s somewhat expected for someone working the cash register at Mickey D’s to not be able to get their own place. And also expected for folks that invest in lower valued properties to have difficulty finding what they’re looking for when prices sky rocket. If I’m looking for a target demographic, I look for the trends and try to capitalize before they happen, not be reactive and then say the market dried up. Then normalize that for a given area/region, then normalize that to historic home prices to recalibrate who is in what bracket(is the ratio the same) and an overall normalization for the 20mil short to account for people like my younger sister who wants a house but can’t really afford any bracket. And for me, that should be easily enough calculated…of the folks that apply for the loan, the banks seem to max at <40% debt to income overall including the mortgage. Then what is the ratio of open housing that’s above the market that’s short for a given area. The housing industry has never interested me, maybe those answers are out there…if we know we’re 20mil short, we must know who, where and what demographic, right? And then what’s the reality of a new $100k house in Raleigh/Charlotte…or where/whatever the shortage is?
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The shortage is just another piece of the puzzle - it pushes up prices, shortens time-on-market, encourages people to offer lots of due diligence money, etc.

It likely is also resulting in a lot of demand destruction. Maybe some of that abates if the market cools, but the magnitude suggests that any real cooling is unlikely. Persistent inflation may encourage people to overextend in the short term in the belief that income will quickly catch up, too.

We've talked about this before - but keep in mind that "what people can afford" hasn't really changed. Inflation-adjusted monthly mortgage payments as a percentage of household income aren't out of line. There isn't any data to suggest that people are generally over-extended. As mortgage rates increase, we're likely to see new homes shrink in size/amenities/etc if that monthly payment gets out of line.

And again, the 20mm shortage is *all types of housing, including rental apartments*.
 
UTfball68 said:
And then what’s the reality of a new $100k house in Raleigh/Charlotte…or where/whatever the shortage is?
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A past co-worker of mine is working to build a neighborhood of $50k-$60k homes in the triangle. Apparently the city is loosening restrictions (I assume on lot sizes). These will be essentially a tiny home (that actually meets code) with all the essentials and none of the extras. If you have ever been through the model 300sq. ft. Living spaces at Ikea, you get the idea.
 
drkelly said:
Move your in-laws into your house. You first:flipoff2:
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hey I never said was happy about it.
I can already see it coming though.
 
shelby27604 said:
A past co-worker of mine is working to build a neighborhood of $50k-$60k homes in the triangle. Apparently the city is loosening restrictions (I assume on lot sizes). These will be essentially a tiny home (that actually meets code) with all the essentials and none of the extras. If you have ever been through the model 300sq. ft. Living spaces at Ikea, you get the idea.
Click to expand...

This is similar to what I’ve been working on around Greenville. A small neighborhood mostly focused on young professional couples with maybe 1 or 2 small children as an easy entry-level, simple home, but stylish, that is an easy stepping off point from living at home with mom and dad or fresh out of college. Then move on to something else. Or even a recently retired couple that wants to downsize.

With housing prices skyrocketing, I’m thinking it’s an opportunity to get something up quickly and relatively affordably so new buyers aren’t having to pay $400k on a move in ready home that’s twice their need and more than pushing their budget. Buy low and affordable now, temporarily, until the market cools off in a few years and then move up to something larger as the need arises and it’s more affordable.
 
shelby27604 said:
A past co-worker of mine is working to build a neighborhood of $50k-$60k homes in the triangle. Apparently the city is loosening restrictions (I assume on lot sizes). These will be essentially a tiny home (that actually meets code) with all the essentials and none of the extras. If you have ever been through the model 300sq. ft. Living spaces at Ikea, you get the idea.
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What is the format?
Once you are talking about compact housing, I don't know why the old school townhouse "row homes" like are in a lot of older cities aren't more popular. Maybe only 13' wide, but fairly deep and 3 stories high, sometimes with a basement or attic. Very energy efficient. Yeah going up and down stairs sucks but you have to make a tradeoff, and you won't be fat.
 
RatLabGuy said:
What is the format?
Once you are talking about compact housing, I don't know why the old school townhouse "row homes" like are in a lot of older cities aren't more popular. Maybe only 13' wide, but fairly deep and 3 stories high, sometimes with a basement or attic. Very energy efficient. Yeah going up and down stairs sucks but you have to make a tradeoff, and you won't be fat.
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I knew a guy that lived in a middle town home. He would basically turn the heat off in the winter. lol Let the neighbors on either side keep the walls warm for him. lol
 
83oldyoda4x4 said:
I knew a guy that lived in a middle town home. He would basically turn the heat off in the winter. lol Let the neighbors on either side keep the walls warm for him. lol
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yep. We did this in college at App.
 
RatLabGuy said:
What is the format?
Once you are talking about compact housing, I don't know why the old school townhouse "row homes" like are in a lot of older cities aren't more popular. Maybe only 13' wide, but fairly deep and 3 stories high, sometimes with a basement or attic. Very energy efficient. Yeah going up and down stairs sucks but you have to make a tradeoff, and you won't be fat.
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Townhouses in Raleigh start around $300k for stuff in the outlying neighborhoods, $550k for DTR. Lots of them being built downtown right now. Figure that you're looking at construction costs of about $280k per unit not counting land, site improvements, etc.
 
shawn said:
Townhouses in Raleigh start around $300k for stuff in the outlying neighborhoods, $550k for DTR. Lots of them being built downtown right now. Figure that you're looking at construction costs of about $280k per unit not counting land, site improvements, etc.
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Fuck that.
There are neighborhoods in Baltimore you could buy one for $1.

Just bring your own security detail.
 
rockcity said:
This is similar to what I’ve been working on around Greenville. A small neighborhood mostly focused on young professional couples with maybe 1 or 2 small children as an easy entry-level, simple home, but stylish, that is an easy stepping off point from living at home with mom and dad or fresh out of college. Then move on to something else. Or even a recently retired couple that wants to downsize.

With housing prices skyrocketing, I’m thinking it’s an opportunity to get something up quickly and relatively affordably so new buyers aren’t having to pay $400k on a move in ready home that’s twice their need and more than pushing their budget. Buy low and affordable now, temporarily, until the market cools off in a few years and then move up to something larger as the need arises and it’s more affordable.
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What square footage are you talking about?

No fawking way I would live in a 300 sqft tiny home.
 
drkelly said:
What square footage are you talking about?

No fawking way I would live in a 300 sqft tiny home.
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I’ve been looking at 500-700sq ft with a couple in the smaller size as a studio type place for single adults or couples that want to be frugal.

$100k and I’d probably wouldn’t be able to keep up with sales. High $ per SF for our area but minimal yard or anything else many people don’t want to deal with. Simple, easy and affordable to build with an OTD price that is affordable to most anyone in this current housing market. Would be a great option for new folks getting into the market or someone that just sold their $800k house and don’t want/need another overpriced huge house and wants to save the other $700k for when the market cools off.

If I wouldn’t end up divorced, I’d do it for a few years. :lol:
 
rockcity said:
I’ve been looking at 500-700sq ft with a couple in the smaller size as a studio type place for single adults or couples that want to be frugal.

$100k and I’d probably wouldn’t be able to keep up with sales. High $ per SF for our area but minimal yard or anything else many people don’t want to deal with. Simple, easy and affordable to build with an OTD price that is affordable to most anyone in this current housing market. Would be a great option for new folks getting into the market or someone that just sold their $800k house and don’t want/need another overpriced huge house and wants to save the other $700k for when the market cools off.

If I wouldn’t end up divorced, I’d do it for a few years. :lol:
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Frankly, I’ve been wondering if those types of communities are going to be the ticket once boomers really start hitting retirement. Par 3 golf course, a pond and a club house…with 100ish mini units…sell the unit, lease the land…I’d toss some coinage at that in Florida somewhere.
 
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UTfball68 said:
Frankly, I’ve been wondering if those types of communities are going to be the ticket once boomers really start hitting retirement. Par 3 golf course, a pond and a club house…with 100ish mini units…sell the unit, lease the land…I’d toss a half mil at that in Florida somewhere.
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Shouldn't most actual boomers already be in retirement?
 
RatLabGuy said:
Shouldn't most actual boomers already be in retirement?
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I think we’re right smack dab in the middle…1946ish-64ish. I can ‘okay boomer’ my parents and they were born in 62 and 64. Born in the year 1957 would be 65 years old today. I guess I should clarify, start ‘downsizing’ and not ‘retiring’, which I would imagine is usually 5-10 years after retirement, which means we’re just starting to see that shift in early boomers.
 
UTfball68 said:
I think we’re right smack dab in the middle…1946ish-64ish. I can ‘okay boomer’ my parents and they were born in 62 and 64. Born in the year 1957 would be 65 years old today. I guess I should clarify, start ‘downsizing’ and not ‘retiring’, which I would imagine is usually 5-10 years after retirement, which means we’re just starting to see that shift in early boomers.
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And any leftover Gen X and Mellinials still living at home are getting ready to find out they will need to move real quick once boomer mom and dad Sell the house in this high market and enjoy retirement.
 
I read a thing earlier today that said it'll take 10 years to resolve.
 
rockcity said:
I’ve been looking at 500-700sq ft with a couple in the smaller size as a studio type place for single adults or couples that want to be frugal.
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I've got a 800sq ft house drawn up that I would love to retire into. Easy to keep clean and would have an extra bedroom for grandkids. I really hope to downsize when the kids are grown and gone.
 
NCJeeplover said:
I've got a 800sq ft house drawn up that I would love to retire into. Easy to keep clean and would have an extra bedroom for grandkids. I really hope to downsize when the kids are grown and gone.
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small house big shop!
 
UTfball68 said:
Frankly, I’ve been wondering if those types of communities are going to be the ticket once boomers really start hitting retirement. Par 3 golf course, a pond and a club house…with 100ish mini units…sell the unit, lease the land…I’d toss some coinage at that in Florida somewhere.
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these neighborhoods have been going up in FL for years now. I worked in one a decade ago, and there were 5 more on the same street. Zero lot line, and ~1000sqft. Want a bigger lot, add a pool.
 
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