Housing market trash

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That doesn't mean there is a 'shortage' per se....there aren't tens of millions of homeless out there that would otherwise be in a house/apt/townhouse if only there was one to purchase.

Sure, we may have stopped/slowed building that was already at an unsustainable pace, but people lost (more of) their minds and began spending like there was no tomorrow and ran prices up. That couple had to leave California and move to Raleigh or Austin RIGHT NOW so they could work from home?

Just because you 'can't afford' to live in a certain area doesn't mean that we need to 'densify' that area with more 'affordable' housing.

Per usual, the dumb masses are to blame.
 
benXJ said:
there aren't tens of millions of homeless out there that would otherwise be in a house/apt/townhouse if only there was one to purchase.
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No, but there are millions of people who would change their housing arrangement if they had options, and there are millions of houses missing from the market contributing to liquidity issues.
 
shawn said:
No, but there are millions of people who would change their housing arrangement if they had options, and there are millions of houses missing from the market contributing to liquidity issues.
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Oh heck yea....me too! I want to live in a neighborhood where the avg price is $600k. However my salary doesn't support that. So how long should I expect to bitch and moan until someone fixes it for me? Who should I call? Is this a problem for the gov't to get their corrupt hands in?
This whole 'I want it right now' has gotten out of hand.
 
benXJ said:
Oh heck yea....me too! I want to live in a neighborhood where the avg price is $600k. However my salary doesn't support that. So how long should I expect to bitch and moan until someone fixes it for me? Who should I call? Is this a problem for the gov't to get their corrupt hands in?
This whole 'I want it right now' has gotten out of hand.
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It doesn't sound like you understand what's going on.
 
RatLabGuy said:
that would require paying attention and understanding math.
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These are just overly simplistic takes, and they're likely misattributing cause and effect. It's like the cost issue - we've talked before (probably in this thread) about how the monthly mortgage outlay was at historic lows as a percentage of household income (prior to the rate hikes). So there's no evidence that people are generally spending more than they can afford. There is plenty of evidence that we have underbuilt for the last 10-15 yrs, that new home starts have been [edit] outpaced by new household creation, that homes on market are at ahistorical lows, etc.
 
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Yep. When my neighbors bought the house down the street for 30% more than what I did, I was like, woah, new guy must be loaded. Nope. Oh he must be gullible. Hm... nope. We got to talking about bills and I learned his payment was about the same as mine. WTF? Oh... yeah because his % rate was like 60% what mine was. That was eye opening... time to refi.
 
shawn said:
It doesn't sound like you understand what's going on.
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Supply and demand?
Oh I understand.

But more cookie cutter soul-less cheap houses in garner and wendell and sanford don't help me.
More housing projects to add density, traffic, and crime to an area don't help me.
The clueless power hungry council idiots that approved the unrestrained population growth for sure haven't helped me.
Raising my property taxes because the mouth breathers from LA and NY and CHI still think 'its a deal' doesn't help me.

Oh, and if you didn't re-fi a year or two ago, well I don't know what to say about that.
 
benXJ said:
Supply and demand?
Oh I understand.

But more cookie cutter soul-less cheap houses in garner and wendell and sanford don't help me.
More housing projects to add density, traffic, and crime to an area don't help me.
The clueless power hungry council idiots that approved the unrestrained population growth for sure haven't helped me.
Raising my property taxes because the mouth breathers from LA and NY and CHI still think 'its a deal' doesn't help me.

Oh, and if you didn't re-fi a year or two ago, well I don't know what to say about that.
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and why should they be helping you?
 
The mising data point from Shawn's graph is tear downs.
That exacerbates the problem.
The last 4 decades those new homes were almost exclusively inventory adds - especially in the southeast. With gentrification of once marginal areas and tranisitonal (re)development buy,raze, rebuild is all the rage. Meaning that a large percent of the homes built are actually replacements to existing inventory numbers not actually new homes adding to inventory. The percentage of the total population will vary greatly by micro locaton; but its a significant number.
 
RatLabGuy said:
and why should they be helping you?
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"They" are all over the news talking about ways to 'help'. Look around.
Incentives, longer rent/mortgage moratoriums for non payment, trailer parks, can't get evicted, 'low income' assistance, straight cash, and other tax payer funded programs.
You know...all these things that really don't help anyone, usually have long term negative consequences, but sound good to the typical uneducated voter.
Of course I won't get any help or a handout....my tax dollars just get taken. I'm suspecting yours do to.
This is why I was asking /S/ who should I call for my assistance/help/handout
 
Ron said:
The mising data point from Shawn's graph is tear downs.
That exacerbates the problem.
The last 4 decades those new homes were almost exclusively inventory adds - especially in the southeast. With gentrification of once marginal areas and tranisitonal (re)development buy,raze, rebuild is all the rage. Meaning that a large percent of the homes built are actually replacements to existing inventory numbers not actually new homes adding to inventory. The percentage of the total population will vary greatly by micro locaton; but its a significant number.
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Just speaking to my micro area here, but most of the time there is a tear down, 2 or more houses or townhouse complexes go up. Long gone are the days of a 1500 sq ft house on a .75 acre lot. There are 3 or more houses squeezed in.

We have gotten A LOT more dense in the past 10 years.
We have added to inventory at an incredible pace.
 
For shits and giggles, I looked up our first house that we bought as newlyweds on one income. We paid 115k for it, sold it a year later for 120k. Currently the house is valued at 300k for 1300sf home:laughing:. No renovations since we sold it either.
 
benXJ said:
Just speaking to my micro area here, but most of the time there is a tear down, 2 or more houses or townhouse complexes go up. Long gone are the days of a 1500 sq ft house on a .75 acre lot. There are 3 or more houses squeezed in.

We have gotten A LOT more dense in the past 10 years.
We have added to inventory at an incredible pace.
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I'm curious where you expect the people to live.

Either you keep big lots, have tight government control over what can be done with YUOUR land, and let prices go through the roof

or people enjoy the freedom of capitalism, do what they want, and provide places to live that are affordable.

Which is it?
 
RatLabGuy said:
I'm curious where you expect the people to live.

Either you keep big lots, have tight government control over what can be done with YUOUR land, and let prices go through the roof

or people enjoy the freedom of capitalism, do what they want, and provide places to live that are affordable.

Which is it?
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C. Not go 20-30 miles out of the city and cut down all the trees and strip the land down to bare clay and build a bunch of cheapass vinyl shitboxes 8ft apart (or whatever minimum local requirement is) and funnel everybody down to 1 intersection to create a traffic jam that blocks up main arteries every morning and evening. Instead build neighborhoods that retain some of the natural landscape and topography and original trees, and let the houses actually have yards and be built with materials so that they are worth renovating in 50 years.

Honestly my issue isn't so much with the vinyl villages as it is how they strip everything bare and where they build them. Feel free to do that close in to the metro areas where high density housing is the norm, but don't don't it out in the country beside the latest Dollar General. Also, this is why I hate the building and zoning departments, because they allow this to happen. If I want to build a 12x14' outbuilding on my property, I have to jump through hoops and get permits and inspections and zoning approval, but DR Horton/Lennar/Pulte/Ryan can buy 50 acres, get it rezoned, get city water and sewer, get the roads repaved and lanes added, and get tax incentives for doing it. Who cares if it makes sense or fits in or the infrastructure can properly support it or how it affects the surrounding area.
 
jeepinmatt said:
C. Not go 20-30 miles out of the city and cut down all the trees and strip the land down to bare clay and build a bunch of cheapass vinyl shitboxes 8ft apart (or whatever minimum local requirement is) and funnel everybody down to 1 intersection to create a traffic jam that blocks up main arteries every morning and evening. Instead build neighborhoods that retain some of the natural landscape and topography and original trees, and let the houses actually have yards and be built with materials so that they are worth renovating in 50 years.

Honestly my issue isn't so much with the vinyl villages as it is how they strip everything bare and where they build them. Feel free to do that close in to the metro areas where high density housing is the norm, but don't don't it out in the country beside the latest Dollar General. Also, this is why I hate the building and zoning departments, because they allow this to happen. If I want to build a 12x14' outbuilding on my property, I have to jump through hoops and get permits and inspections and zoning approval, but DR Horton/Lennar/Pulte/Ryan can buy 50 acres, get it rezoned, get city water and sewer, get the roads repaved and lanes added, and get tax incentives for doing it. Who cares if it makes sense or fits in or the infrastructure can properly support it or how it affects the surrounding area.
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So do you believe in free market capitalism and letting land property owner do WTF they want with THEIR property, or not?
It sounds to me like you want The Man to be able to dictate what landowners do.

It's a serious question [to which I don't have a happy or simple answer].
 
jeepinmatt said:
get tax incentives for doing it
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Impact fees to the AHJ are usually millions of dollars.
jeepinmatt said:
this is why I hate the building and zoning departments, because they allow this to happen.
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Their job is only to ensure that the builder is complying with the law. Are you suggesting they should be arbitrary and capricious in enforcing regulations?
 
RatLabGuy said:
So do you believe in free market capitalism and letting land property owner do WTF they want with THEIR property, or not?
It sounds to me like you want The Man to be able to dictate what landowners do.

It's a serious question [to which I don't have a happy or simple answer].
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jeepinmatt said:
Also, this is why I hate the building and zoning departments, because they allow this to happen. If I want to build a 12x14' outbuilding on my property, I have to jump through hoops and get permits and inspections and zoning approval, but DR Horton/Lennar/Pulte/Ryan can buy 50 acres, get it rezoned, get city water and sewer, get the roads repaved and lanes added, and get tax incentives for doing it.
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I kind of addressed it in this portion of my reply, but I also struggle with realities of the execution side. I don't have time today to really type out my thoughts, but I'll generally summarize it. The purpose of the zoning department could probably be loosely defined as maintaining cohesiveness, but they mostly seem to inhibit those who already live there, while enabling the big money and major change. Ask any farmer how much he likes the local/county government, and 99 times out of 100, he will hate it, and that 100th guy is the county commissioner or soil and water district manager or something. The government seems to make it hard to stay rural, and easy to build tax base.
 
shawn said:
Impact fees to the AHJ are usually millions of dollars.
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I don't really know what that means, but it sounds like you are more focused on the building standards/code enforcement side, whereas I'm primarily talking about zoning. I'm also not an expert on this nor do I claim to be. I just a dude who sees what is happening around where I am, and it doesn't seem right.
shawn said:
Their job is only to ensure that the builder is complying with the law. Are you suggesting they should be arbitrary and capricious in enforcing regulations?
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No, quite the opposite. If an area is zoned rural or rural residential, then enforce that instead of rezoning it to add tax base and destroy landscapes.
 
jeepinmatt said:
I don't really know what that means, but it sounds like you are more focused on the building standards/code enforcement side, whereas I'm primarily talking about zoning. I'm also not an expert on this nor do I claim to be. I just a dude who sees what is happening around where I am, and it doesn't seem right.

No, quite the opposite. If an area is zoned rural or rural residential, then enforce that instead of rezoning it to add tax base and destroy landscapes.
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They pay millions of dollars to the county and/or city for impacts to schools, etc, from the construction of the houses, and often have to pay for upgrades to sewers, roads, etc, that are miles away from the project site.

The zoning/building reviewer's only job is to ensure the project complies with the law. That's it. Rezoning is a separate process, goes through Council (elected officials), and typically requires a separate set of concessions from the petitioner.
 
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