Is the economy really that bad???

1-tonmudder

1-tonmudder

Doin my part to stir the pot.
Joined
Apr 17, 2005
Location
Greeneville TN
According to the news the economy is in the tank and has been all year but I just don't see it.My FIL/BIL build for a living and have had all the work they want all summer.There are numerous new houses bein built here also.I have a friend who excavate's,another that does septic and plumbing work and they have people waiting in line. Another guy I know buys/repairs/flips cars from his garage,4 or five a month.I'm shipping parts or loading them in the back of somebodies truck almost everyday,and we have missed numerous items on marketplace or CL by just minutes.I see inflated prices for 20+ year old diesel trucks that sell in just a few days (a few hours in some cases).Miller Industries is a local company that sells/installs roll back beds and they are expanding their factory.How much much does a new F-450 rollback cost?? $100K +?? Somebody must be buying em.Kubota of Greeneville just bought 5 acres of prime property on the four lane in the most heavily traveled part of town and are building a new dealership,somebody's buying that expensive orange paint.We were out of town Tuesday and stopped at one of our favorite places to eat on the way home.It isnt a super expensive place to eat but our bill is usually $35-$40 for the two of us.The parking lot was full and they had a 45-60 min wait for a table for two,on a Tuesday night.

Is the economy really that bad or has my white privilege blinded me to what's really goin on???
 
The only reason news media claims the economy is bad is because Trump had something to do with it, knowing that not one of their socialist piece of garbage candidates of choice could ever do what he has.
 
Last edited:
Switch to Fox news. They have fake news guest for diversity but cover the news.fairly. The other networks for the most part will leave you in the dark on many stories and breaking news if it hurts any liberal/Democrat politician.

I hope this free speech doesn't get me banned.
 
I have had better luck selling stuff in the last few months than ever. From $100 kayaks to 30k boats and all manners of junk in between people have been lining up. I personally have not seen a bad economy. Like @Wes said, try to buy guns or ammunition. I will take it one further, try to buy sporting goods in general. More Chicken Little propaganda best I can figure.
 
I have suffered a bit during this but it seems to be picking back up. I deal in construction materials, mostly everything concrete related like fabricated rebar, vapor barrier, waterproofing, air barriers, sealants, epoxy, site work etc.

It slowed for a bit but my account list is mostly all large commercial/industrial. I supply the stuff for big sites like Amazon, Publix, warehouses, schools etc. It seems to be going back in the right direction now. The slow down, and may have been due to some other factors.

However my smaller guys have been busier than they’ve ever been. More people than ever getting pools, new drive ways, patios, building pads poured, etc. smaller business took the slow down to get repairs they’d normally have to do on weekends and holidays.

It’s been a very strange year. The point is nothing is as bad as the media makes it out to be.
 
Mathematically, we are back to where we were 2 years ago.
IMG_20201031_080746.jpg



The machining side of the manufacturing sector started off the year strong and then dropped heavily. About 40% down from last year. Things have picked back up, but are still down 10-20% compared to the past couple years.

The price of everything except gas seems to have risen. Its going to be a weird couple of months with wavering lumber prices, holiday shopping season, everyone working from home, rising covid cases, election, BLM protests, etc.
 
As long as I have been alive, when a Republican is president, the assumption is a Democrat will win the next round, so big companies stop spending on expansions the year of the election.
This being the most controversial president in history, there's no telling how the votes will go. The trends I'm seeing on MY end this last year, is big private companies have held their monies and not dove into any new ventures (construction wise)
And then of course RONA happened and killed the tourism, dining, and Hollywood & musical industries.

So OVERALL we're suffering, but it appears individually we are doing well. I think, because we've not spent money on eating out, vacations, or concerts/movies. So hell, why not put in a pool, or buy an RV, motorcycle, boat, and 20 more guns.

That's just my "I'm not an economist " opinion
 
It’s important to note ‘The economy’ is more than just Wall St. I think it’s also important to recognize stimulus checks, ppp money and unemployment benefits did a lot to stall the bleeding. The unemployment benefits, however, have had adverse effects in scenarios where folks get paid as much (or close) to stay on the couch rather than get back to work. That said, on a personal basis, it’s budget season, and top line revenue projections missed by 15%. I’m also battling a labor capacity constraint on sub-$20/hr roles. Thats not to say we didn’t grow, but not at the rate of previous years or as expected. YoY customer/sku analyses make it very apparent who and what products were hurting, and how product mix changed. Other factors I’ve seen, about 30% of my new projects have stalled or been cancelled, directly tied to Covid. I also still have margin misses as a result of tariff charges, that I’ve been passing along incrementally, which means customers tend to lower the volume of their orders.

Conversely...the race shop and landscaping business have never been better. Which tells me, people with money still have money...people without it, well...
 
My previous job was doing the parking lot and concrete work for ATM installations. We’d do everything except put the ATM in place. Concrete, electrical, and so on. It all but vanished during the panic months. The banks pretty much shut down that portion. When they turned on they turned ON. I have a contract gig training soldiers on Ft Jackson now, but I stay in touch with the boys. They can’t keep up. ATM installs, rebranding/paint jobs, to full blown bank renovations. Before we had to chase it. Now it’s coming in faster than the boys can keep up. Jobs are stacked.
 
What I've is as said, people with money, are spending it, just like they have no worries! Pool, Housing, & some Commercial, are wide open. My Fifth Third bank, might have been the first to reopen the lobby, Way ahead of Wells Fargo! My local WF, closed until a month ago. First they opened drive thru, & finally the past 4 weeks, they opened the lobby. Fast food & restaurants, are still struggling, & have raised prices, due to Food price increase. First quarter, my portfolio fell, as did everyone's. Second quarter was a comeback. Third quarter was Reported good, by what I heard, but my portfolio, fell again! I haven't asked why yet. Market reports in the papers are down, & expected to stay down, until the end of next years first quarter. Maybe mid year. Depends on the election
and Covid 19.
 
DSM Turbos said:
If you live in an area where a lot of the income was from people doing vacation you are hurting. Also things like trade shows. Etc.
Click to expand...

The outer banks got hammered this year. The horse tour guy in Corolla said this was a record year. He was booked solid in tours DEEP into September. Said that had never happened.
 
Not hugely representative of the nation but my parents run an air B&B in northern Michigan on Lake Michigan. They were worried about their summer season being slow. It was anything but. They had new visitors and return customers from last year. Booked solid all summer long and still getting reservations right now. A big change this year has been inquiries for internet quality as the kids are needing to conduct school work. Usually things slow down in the fall until winter (skiers and snowmobilers) this year is steady throughout.
 
NCJeeplover said:
The outer banks got hammered this year. The horse tour guy in Corolla said this was a record year. He was booked solid in tours DEEP into September. Said that had never happened.
Click to expand...
No joke. I was in Corolla 2 weeks ago. It looked like summer with all the people there. We always go in October and its never been that busy. Kids doing remote learning has allowed people to enjoy a beach vacation during the "school year" at much reduced costs.
 
NCJeeplover said:
The outer banks got hammered this year. The horse tour guy in Corolla said this was a record year. He was booked solid in tours DEEP into September. Said that had never happened.
Click to expand...

A lot of people that can work from home are going on vacations and working from there realizing they don't have to be in the city anymore. Just because some of the areas are doing good though, doesn't mean overall stuff is "good" though. Things though are much better now they they were in June/July, but things like trade shows that is a huge industry, our job has said we don't do any till at least July of next year. That used to bring in HUGE amounts of income for many cities.

It is crazy to see the RV places have like 10-20% of their normal inventory. Tons of people instead of going to like Europe spent a bunch of money on recreational toys, or vacations like that. I know if my GF could work remote, we wouldn't have stayed in town.
 
willness33 said:
No joke. I was in Corolla 2 weeks ago. It looked like summer with all the people there. We always go in October and its never been that busy. Kids doing remote learning has allowed people to enjoy a beach vacation during the "school year" at much reduced costs.
Click to expand...
My parents live on Lake Gaston. They say the bigger vacation homes that are normall empty or used as weekly rentals have been packed.
Similar thing, a lot of people are like, "Well if I'm gonna sit at home, might as well be at the lake instead of the suburbs of Durham or wherever"

Dad runs the local Habitat ReStore there, they've been getting all kidns of crazy donations bc people are doing renovations, getting new boats, etc.
 
NCJeeplover said:
The outer banks got hammered this year. The horse tour guy in Corolla said this was a record year. He was booked solid in tours DEEP into September. Said that had never happened.
Click to expand...

According to Twiddy in the annual owners address, this was greatest year they have had in 10 years.
 
It has been all about the stimulus.

GFC vs COVID Updated Line Chart_v2_06302020.png
 
Ehh. My economy hasn't changed in a decade.
I dont know if im doing something good or bad? But in that decade I've worked 4 to 5 jobs depending how you look at it. Changed schedules probably twice that amount. Juggling various efforts and approaches. The decade prior I worked one place.
All of it has been a wash and I'm back to an identical income range. Nearly the same hours invested.
Through all of it and the current I chalk it up to stubborn persistence and a blessing from above.
As far as the world and the US......give it a day or two. Cause this countries figurehead drives that......right?!?! :shaking:
 
I know a guy who runs a transmission shop and he told me last week that this had been his best year in a long time., and he’s not cheap.He said his tax lady told him if he didn’t make anymore $$$ this year his taxes were gonna be $12k .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
My last job which was at a very conservative bank has entered into a merger with another large bank. Making them together the 19th largest bank. They wouldn't have done this with the thought the economy was bad.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top