Most of the things I buy are long term. I have little desire and knowledge to do short term investments. That’s why I got into marijuana stocks, they will be profitable eventually, but I don’t have a lot in them in case they aren’t. I doubt airlines would cease to exist, it’s just a matter of which ones.
Stock market
- Thread starter RatLabGuy
- Start date
Most of the things I buy are long term. I have little desire and knowledge to do short term investments. That’s why I got into marijuana stocks, they will be profitable eventually, but I don’t have a lot in them in case they aren’t. I doubt airlines would cease to exist, it’s just a matter of which ones.
- Joined
- Mar 13, 2005
- Location
- Raleigh, NC
Then don't buy JETS
RatLabGuy
You look like a monkey and smell like one too
- Joined
- May 18, 2005
- Location
- Churchville, MD
With all the businesses finding ways to be "safe" as they reopen - its a good time to invest in plexiglass.
- Joined
- Mar 13, 2005
- Location
- Raleigh, NC
Yeah, but look at the chart for JETS - it's not a good vehicle. Until the last few months, there's been very little volume and very little beta. If anything, it was a good short-term play to try to work the ranges it would get stuck in.
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2005
- Location
- Hendersonville, NC
I'm still buying $1000 XJs, repairing them and selling for $5K.
More stable than the market right now.
More stable than the market right now.
zuke
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Sep 4, 2012
- Location
- Stafford, VA
So don't buy actual Airline Stock, Buy solid air travel support stocks, GE is looking like a good bet right now...
NCJeeplover
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2009
- Location
- Claremont, NC
My boy and I have been talking about this for the past month. I bet the sell of plexi has went up 500%!
DSM Turbos
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2006
- Location
- Raleigh, NC
GE Aviation plans to cut 13,000 jobs as coronavirus hits air travel demand Doesn't seem good for GE aviation?
zuke
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Sep 4, 2012
- Location
- Stafford, VA
When the industry does come back, and airlines start replacing planes again, GE will still be around making jet engines because of it... Not good for GE employees, But it's brought the stock price way down, and the future doesn't look so gloomy for GE. If someone wants to invest in the airline industry, This is a lot better prospect than any of the airlines themselves which may not survive...
GE has been struggling on new engine development as well (pre-COVID, see 777-X). Safran is supposedly setting themselves up to come back strong with the LEAP engines on narrowbodies, but they just had a huge layoff too. P&W has a smaller piece of the commercial market I think, but they just released the next generation fighter jet engine technology that no other company has and will take 100% of the new fighter jet market (just like they already have on the F35).
All three have had their issues for sure. It will be interesting to see how the industry reacts after the Q2 earnings come out.
All three have had their issues for sure. It will be interesting to see how the industry reacts after the Q2 earnings come out.
jeepinmatt
..l.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2005
- Location
- Stanley, NC
GE has been in a bad spot for a while. I witnessed it from the PowerGen side. I would almost speculate that this would be a nail in the coffin, were it not this bad for most everyone who would be interested in buying them at a bargain.
rodney eppes
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2010
- Location
- Mt.Holly NC 28120
Catching up my Desk today, & opened my week old Quarterly Investment Statement. From Jan.1, to March 31, seems I dropped 17-18%. But the month of April, gained 5-6% back. I hope the second quarter, at least Holds!
kaiser715
Doing hard time
- Joined
- Jun 1, 2006
- Location
- 7, Pocket, NC
Considering where the market was (my stuff peaked around 2/13/20), it was overvalued anyway and we were due a 10% correction. So, where I am still off almost 20% now from that peak, it's really only about 10% off where "normal" should be.
I'm not loosing any sleep.
We are still headed towards DOW 40k. (Then 50k.) I don't think this slowed us down any. The market doesn't go backwards, for long.
I'm not loosing any sleep.
We are still headed towards DOW 40k. (Then 50k.) I don't think this slowed us down any. The market doesn't go backwards, for long.
I’ve regained my losses, up only 3% but I’ll take it. I’ve also maxed my Roth for 2019 and have room for my SEP IRA. Next month is quarterly bonus so I’ll be going in heavy. Just to note, majority of what I invest is long term so my approach is trying to take advantage of low price points now, knowing a chance for a dip is still there, but 3-5 years I’ll be positioned nicely
kaiser715
Doing hard time
- Joined
- Jun 1, 2006
- Location
- 7, Pocket, NC
What time frame are you looking at? Recovered your losses....from what date? Just curious...
My high point was 2/13/20. My low point was 3/19/20. January 1 to Current doesn't look quite so bad.
Year to date basically, I’m in the green. I can go back and look at my high point and report back
kaiser715
Doing hard time
- Joined
- Jun 1, 2006
- Location
- 7, Pocket, NC
Just trying to wrap my head around that...are you including contributions and additions since 1/1, or just growth and dividends?
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2005
- Location
- Sharon, SC
Im not in the black....but Im within 2%.
Deplorable
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2017
- Location
- Asheville
Everyone’s YTD gain/loss is directly related to their asset allocation. Just saying I’m red/black without divulging asset allocation means very little to any one other than you (your portfolio).
For example, typical bond fund is up 5+% YTD, while S&P is down 9.3%. If those are my only two investments, then I could be down 9% or up 5% YTD depending on my asset allocation (ratio of each investment).
Then time frames will influence your YTD, for example are you looking at YTD ending quarter, monthly or daily? I’m in the red depending on what time frame I decide to look at, and subsequently in the black if I look at other time frames. But they are all relevant YTD results.
Lastly, investors (more so gamblers) who chase returns rarely beat investors who invest in solid companies/fund/indexes for the long term. Investing is much simpler and effective if you use your brain and not your heart (facts vs emotions). If you leave emotions out of it, you’ll likely profit beautifully from each downturn during your accumulation phase.
For example, typical bond fund is up 5+% YTD, while S&P is down 9.3%. If those are my only two investments, then I could be down 9% or up 5% YTD depending on my asset allocation (ratio of each investment).
Then time frames will influence your YTD, for example are you looking at YTD ending quarter, monthly or daily? I’m in the red depending on what time frame I decide to look at, and subsequently in the black if I look at other time frames. But they are all relevant YTD results.
Lastly, investors (more so gamblers) who chase returns rarely beat investors who invest in solid companies/fund/indexes for the long term. Investing is much simpler and effective if you use your brain and not your heart (facts vs emotions). If you leave emotions out of it, you’ll likely profit beautifully from each downturn during your accumulation phase.
I’m not as well versed as some in here so bare with me... I’m including contributions and overall returns as of 1/1/20 For common stock, Not including my IRAs, Roth/SEP. I have a column for rate of return next to each account which I can control the date. Updating for yesterday’s results, it’s -.31% year to date rate of return.
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2005
- Location
- Sharon, SC
Just for the sake of discussion...my comment above is 100% stock value. No bonds no mutual funds. Just direct stock ownership.
But Im a boring "investor"...Ill never ride the highs, but blue chip dividend payers are nice.
Deplorable
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2017
- Location
- Asheville
rodney eppes
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2010
- Location
- Mt.Holly NC 28120
the coming weeks and months.
1.) Political Risk - Even if we weren't dealing with COVID-19, I would be warning of potentially increased volatility as we move closer to the November elections. The most considerable risk to the markets is a shift in tax policy. A Democrat sweep of both houses of Congress and the Presidency could result in a rollback of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Stock prices are a function of the outlook for corporate earnings and the potential growth of earnings. An increase in expenses, including tax payments, reduces corporate earnings and would require a repricing of stocks.
2.) China - Tensions between the U.S. and China have been elevated for some time. We saw markets react negatively as tariffs were imposed. Anything that derails the trade agreement or puts future trade developments at risk could be a drag on markets. China's willingness or ability to fulfill Phase One of the trade agreement has been in question. Supply chain problems uncovered during the pandemic have strengthened calls for repatriating critical manufacturing to the U.S. In recent weeks, politicians have increased pressure on China to take responsibility for and make reparations for the economic damages resulting from the Global Pandemic. The future of U.S./China relations and the economic impact remains uncertain.
3.) Stock Buybacks and Dividends - Corporations buying back their stock and paying dividends support stock prices. During first-quarter earnings calls, many companies announced that they would discontinue planned stock buyback programs and suspend dividend payments. If this trend expands or the expected duration increases, it could put downward pressure on stock prices.
4.) COVID-19 - A Global Pandemic wasn't in anyone's economic forecast coming into 2020. Experts believe there are several possible directions the virus may take. Each would have a different effect on the economy and markets. The virus could burn-out on its own as we move through the Summer. The virus could remain at a lower level through the Summer and then resurge in the Fall. There could be an effective treatment or vaccine that would eradicate the virus, or this may become something we must learn to live with like the cold or flu viruses.
5.) Reopening the Economy - There has been a great deal of optimism among market participants that the economy can be reopened smoothly, and that economic growth will resume. The reopening of the U.S. economy will hinge on the consumer. Pent-up demand may fuel consumer spending. However, several things could negatively impact consumer confidence and spending. Fear of contracting COVID-19 could reduce consumers' willingness to return to normal levels of activity. A spike in virus-related hospitalizations could necessitate a return of more stringent government restrictions. Following recessions, people often use available resources to reduce debt and increase savings rather than spend and consume. While I remain cautiously optimistic, the range of potential outcomes makes estimating economic activity and corporate earnings difficult.
Portfolio Update - Every morning, I check the performance of accounts across each investment objective compared to a benchmark. Though the performance of an individual portfolio may vary, accounts are currently in-line with or outperforming their benchmarks. Although portfolio models remain overweight cash, we've been able to maintain performance with lower market exposure by having a portfolio overweight to Large Cap Growth, Technology, and Healthcare. These sectors have outperformed the broader market. I've added an S&P 500 High-Quality investment. This fund selects companies from the S&P 500 that exhibit strong balance sheets and lower levels of debt. This week I added exposure to Consumer Staples. This gives us exposure to companies who sell things the consumer is likely to continue buying. I also added a Corporate Bond position. Corporate Bonds offer a higher yield than many other options. During periods of economic uncertainty, corporate bonds carry a higher risk of default. However, the Federal Reserve has taken the unprecedented step of buying corporate bonds, theoretically providing unlimited support for this sector of investments.
Economic Update - Rather than going through the economic data, suffice it to say, it's terrible. We review economic data to gain insight into the current and future path of the economy. The current economic data is less useful because it isn't being shaped by natural economic forces but rather by government intervention. On the one hand, the government is limiting business activity in the name of public health while also providing trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary support. We don't yet know the full impact these competing interventions will have on the real economy.
1.) Political Risk - Even if we weren't dealing with COVID-19, I would be warning of potentially increased volatility as we move closer to the November elections. The most considerable risk to the markets is a shift in tax policy. A Democrat sweep of both houses of Congress and the Presidency could result in a rollback of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Stock prices are a function of the outlook for corporate earnings and the potential growth of earnings. An increase in expenses, including tax payments, reduces corporate earnings and would require a repricing of stocks.
2.) China - Tensions between the U.S. and China have been elevated for some time. We saw markets react negatively as tariffs were imposed. Anything that derails the trade agreement or puts future trade developments at risk could be a drag on markets. China's willingness or ability to fulfill Phase One of the trade agreement has been in question. Supply chain problems uncovered during the pandemic have strengthened calls for repatriating critical manufacturing to the U.S. In recent weeks, politicians have increased pressure on China to take responsibility for and make reparations for the economic damages resulting from the Global Pandemic. The future of U.S./China relations and the economic impact remains uncertain.
3.) Stock Buybacks and Dividends - Corporations buying back their stock and paying dividends support stock prices. During first-quarter earnings calls, many companies announced that they would discontinue planned stock buyback programs and suspend dividend payments. If this trend expands or the expected duration increases, it could put downward pressure on stock prices.
4.) COVID-19 - A Global Pandemic wasn't in anyone's economic forecast coming into 2020. Experts believe there are several possible directions the virus may take. Each would have a different effect on the economy and markets. The virus could burn-out on its own as we move through the Summer. The virus could remain at a lower level through the Summer and then resurge in the Fall. There could be an effective treatment or vaccine that would eradicate the virus, or this may become something we must learn to live with like the cold or flu viruses.
5.) Reopening the Economy - There has been a great deal of optimism among market participants that the economy can be reopened smoothly, and that economic growth will resume. The reopening of the U.S. economy will hinge on the consumer. Pent-up demand may fuel consumer spending. However, several things could negatively impact consumer confidence and spending. Fear of contracting COVID-19 could reduce consumers' willingness to return to normal levels of activity. A spike in virus-related hospitalizations could necessitate a return of more stringent government restrictions. Following recessions, people often use available resources to reduce debt and increase savings rather than spend and consume. While I remain cautiously optimistic, the range of potential outcomes makes estimating economic activity and corporate earnings difficult.
Portfolio Update - Every morning, I check the performance of accounts across each investment objective compared to a benchmark. Though the performance of an individual portfolio may vary, accounts are currently in-line with or outperforming their benchmarks. Although portfolio models remain overweight cash, we've been able to maintain performance with lower market exposure by having a portfolio overweight to Large Cap Growth, Technology, and Healthcare. These sectors have outperformed the broader market. I've added an S&P 500 High-Quality investment. This fund selects companies from the S&P 500 that exhibit strong balance sheets and lower levels of debt. This week I added exposure to Consumer Staples. This gives us exposure to companies who sell things the consumer is likely to continue buying. I also added a Corporate Bond position. Corporate Bonds offer a higher yield than many other options. During periods of economic uncertainty, corporate bonds carry a higher risk of default. However, the Federal Reserve has taken the unprecedented step of buying corporate bonds, theoretically providing unlimited support for this sector of investments.
Economic Update - Rather than going through the economic data, suffice it to say, it's terrible. We review economic data to gain insight into the current and future path of the economy. The current economic data is less useful because it isn't being shaped by natural economic forces but rather by government intervention. On the one hand, the government is limiting business activity in the name of public health while also providing trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary support. We don't yet know the full impact these competing interventions will have on the real economy.
drkelly
Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2005
- Location
- Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC