This shouldn't bother me this much...

UTfball68

UTfball68

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Location
Granite Quarry
So as a recovering flu victim, everyone keeps saying 'did you get the shot, meh...it's only covering 10% of the strains anyway'. Heard it on the news, heard it on the radio, heard it from a couple different nurses. As a numbers guy, I can't wrap my head around how they're quantifying this '10%'. Healthy people aren't going to the doctor to say they don't have the flu. I understand the shot is a known quantity, and the sick people that have come in with the flu are a known quantity. And based on those sick people you can say you have the flu and got the flu shot, you have a different strain...or you can say, you have the flu and didn't get the flu shot, and for you X%, the shot would have prevented it, but you Y% it's moot, even if you got the shot, you'd still be sick. So the narrative I can understand is, 'of the 100,000 sick people that have come in, 10,000 would have been saved by the shot'. When the possibility is there that 100,000,000 more people out there would have been susceptible to the flu had they not gotten the shot.

Furthermore, weren't flu shots a thing like in September. So in less than 60 days we've at the very least collected regional data, tested it, computed it and released results??? If we can churn out data that quickly...why can't we make a new batch of flu shots and Merica the hell out of the flu???

As an anti-flu shot guy myself, smells like a wag the dog scenario...blame Bush and this damn yella journalism.

Note...most of this is in jest...but quantifying that 10% really does bug me.
 
Ever since my memory I’ve never had the flu. In addition to that I’ve never gotten a flu shot. Again to my memory so maybe before I was five or six I had the flu and flu shots.

Knock on wood :)


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I got the flu about 4 yrs ago for the first time since I was a kid. I did not get the shot. I did not go to the doctor. Therefore there is no record of me getting the flu, and not getting the shot. I was sick 'off the grid', LOL.
 
paradisePWoffrd said:
The flu vaccine and most of the data comes from Europe and other parts of the world. Their flu seasons are prior to ours here. How they get 10% idk.
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Is that like the west coast watching east coast weather patterns so they can get a 3hr jump on reporting. Or is this for reals???
 
They know the flu strains and real time stats and try to target the 3 or 4 highest risk strains that year and the closely related strains of those. Theres a lot of them, so if 3 or 4 is 10% (via your doctor) then there's 30 or 40 common high risk strains probably?
Also, it takes a while to manufacture X volume of ready to use shots, so there is some predicted statistics to start manufacturing before peak season. If you wait for the full stats to come in for that season, it's too late for cultivation and packaging..

There's also more than one flu shot every year (and different companies manufacture) and the CDC publishes a list of the available ones every year. You usually don't get a choice when you go to your doctor or wallgreens, unless you're old/weak or pregnant, or very young. I don't think your kids get the same shot as you, but I'm not sure about that.

I think if you did some more extensive background research, some things about this would make more sense. It's not all just a bunch of government hand-waving (only some hand-waving maybe). ;)

The CDC has a really good flu shot FAQ if I remember correctly. I've read it a few years ago, there was lots of actual science in it.
 
So what's this stuff like......I've been coughing, stuffed up, head exploding, cant sleep zombie since before Thanksgiving. Popping all sorts of cold meds from this side of the counter during all of it.

I've run out of Devils Cut so maybe the doctor instead of the package store?
 
WARRIORWELDING said:
So what's this stuff like......I've been coughing, stuffed up, head exploding, cant sleep zombie since before Thanksgiving. Popping all sorts of cold meds from this side of the counter during all of it.

I've run out of Devils Cut so maybe the doctor instead of the package store?
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Ive been dealing with it for a week. A quart of clear seems to have solved the issue.
 
JSJJ388 said:
Ive been dealing with it for a week. A quart of clear seems to have solved the issue.
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Bourbon has helped.....well doc says I'm ugly and a top shelf sinus infection. Was a three time a year thing. At least one this year is ok.
 
Stuff's got alien DNA in it. They want to change us into something else.
 
WARRIORWELDING said:
Bourbon has helped.....well doc says I'm ugly and a top shelf sinus infection. Was a three time a year thing. At least one this year is ok.
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Last time I had a sinus infection, they mentioned taking a daily dose of allergy medicine during the seasons would help prevent it.
 
paradisePWoffrd said:
Last time I had a sinus infection, they mentioned taking a daily dose of allergy medicine during the seasons would help prevent it.
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My season is all year. I guess I'm still a puny kid. Zyrtec, 1200mg mucinex, and two Flintstones everyday.
Good advice though. I grew up with asthma and a respiratory doc. Got me on that regiment in my early twenties. I slept through high school . Partly because of boredom, mostly because of very powerful antihistamines that weren't all that effective. Did alergy shots and stayed sick. The test for alergies was more of what I wasn't alergic too........hmmm poison ivy and oxygen. Sounds bout right.
My mom is a retired nurse and still curses the day I wanted to breath smoke for a living.
 
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UTfball68 said:
Note...most of this is in jest...but quantifying that 10% really does bug me
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It's public health statistics math, not accounting. They're extrapolating information from huge data sets. Does it matter whether the actual number is 8% or 14%? Not really.

WARRIORWELDING said:
So what's this stuff like......I've been coughing, stuffed up, head exploding, cant sleep zombie since before Thanksgiving. Popping all sorts of cold meds from this side of the counter during all of it.
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That's not the flu.
 
WARRIORWELDING said:
So what's this stuff like......I've been coughing, stuffed up, head exploding, cant sleep zombie since before Thanksgiving. Popping all sorts of cold meds from this side of the counter during all of it.

I've run out of Devils Cut so maybe the doctor instead of the package store?
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Start off with aching joints and shivers for about 24 hours. Cranked my heat up to 80 and had the fireplace going full blast, while under double blankets. Then extreme nausea and the shits for 48-72 hours. Then back to normal, except for residual shits. I generally sleep on average 4hrs/day...I was in bed by 9p and slept until 9a, then take a nap from noon to 4. First time I used a sick day in 5/6/7 years.
 
Fabrik8 said:
They know the flu strains and real time stats and try to target the 3 or 4 highest risk strains that year and the closely related strains of those. Theres a lot of them, so if 3 or 4 is 10% (via your doctor) then there's 30 or 40 common high risk strains probably?
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I can see the logic there, and that makes sense.

Fabrik8 said:
Also, it takes a while to manufacture X volume of ready to use shots, so there is some predicted statistics to start manufacturing before peak season. If you wait for the full stats to come in for that season, it's too late for cultivation and packaging
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And I understand this...but if the data is turned around that quickly (which is impressive in and of itself), I know my small $250mm/yr pharma company can do a changeover in 2-3 hours and can fill 20-30,000 vaccine viles per day on one line, I have 14 lines in NC and 20 in Florida. Figure a week lead time, you're looking at churning out 700,000-1,000,000 units/day. The places like CVS and WalMart that we deal with, can leave our docks, make a stop at one of their DC's and be ready for consumption in less than 7 days. Start to finish, you're talking two weeks...and that's just my little ol' company, I'd imagine big pharma could do it faster. But to your point, if statistically they determine 3-4 strains will affect more people, or that those 3-4 strains could be deadly...and 'they' are primarily worried about combating that, and 'they're' ok letting guys like me sit on the shitter for 3-4 days...then I get it.
 
UTfball68 said:
But to your point, if statistically they determine 3-4 strains will affect more people, or that those 3-4 strains could be deadly...and 'they' are primarily worried about combating that, and 'they're' ok letting guys like me sit on the shitter for 3-4 days...then I get it.
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I think that's what the objective is. Hit the big strains that are most common during that time, knowing that you'll protect the statistically largest population, but also can't protect as well against the greater number of statistically smaller strains.
 
Once the money is in the bank, it doesn't matter if it works.
 
I sorta deviated from the main topic.......but I was not sure what this years strains where giving folks. I have always been plagued from allergy induced sinus issues; however, I have not had the flu virus not one single time in my adult or young adult reckoning.

I have never had the flu shot.

I do not believe in this particular vaccination application. Stable diseases yes. Constantly mutating virus types are best fought by a healthy immune system and actually exposing yourself to life. I am a big advocate for NOT over sanitizing your environment and a little dirt don't hurt. I draw the line at lack of personal hygiene, clean dishes, and raw pork or seafood.
 
WARRIORWELDING said:
I do not believe in this particular vaccination application. Stable diseases yes. Constantly mutating virus types are best fought by a healthy immune system and actually exposing yourself to life. I am a big advocate for NOT over sanitizing your environment and a little dirt don't hurt. I draw the line at lack of personal hygiene, clean dishes, and raw pork or seafood.
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I can't back it up by science or anything...but always lived my life that way and believed in it's validity. Never ever got sick. I didn't live like a pig or anything, but wasn't afraid of not being in a surgical clean room. Move my wife in...enhance cleanliness, I get some sorta illness every couple years now. Whether it's the flu or some kinda sinus/cold thing. I honestly don't think that's a coincidence.
 
UTfball68 said:
Start off with aching joints and shivers for about 24 hours. Cranked my heat up to 80 and had the fireplace going full blast, while under double blankets. Then extreme nausea and the shits for 48-72 hours. Then back to normal, except for residual shits. I generally sleep on average 4hrs/day...I was in bed by 9p and slept until 9a, then take a nap from noon to 4. First time I used a sick day in 5/6/7 years.
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No respiratory issues? That doesn't sound like influenza.
 
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