Recession coming?

WARRIORWELDING said:
noodles yep a bunch of limp ones in govco.......now back on topic.

Anyone really changing summer plans due to the current and the possible future? Me and the wife have been discussing.
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I plan to wheel as much as I can, so no not changing anything.
 
ponykilr said:
I read this on another forum, thoughts?

I work for a major window and door company.

We have been swamped working insane overtime for the last few years.

Our orders have just dropped dramatically each day starting on Monday this week.

In our industry this happens fast, we saw it in 2008.

Here it comes...I’ve been saving my overtime money in preparation so I’m as ready as I can be.
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I had a building supply company come out this week to measure for two windows and two doors I need to replace. I told him I needed some other renovations done and couldn’t get a contractor to call me back. He said give it a couple months, contractors will be begging for work.
 
Things have slowed down in the machine tool/metalworking industry. Still majorly busy, but good busy instead of insane busy like the first 3-4 months this year.
 
I see maybe....big maybe more repairs and patches coming over the idea of replacing with new equipment. The value of a craftsman may increase. The competition will be getting good work at the best price. The cheap bastards will just keep being cheap.
jeepinmatt said:
Things have slowed down in the machine tool/metalworking industry. Still majorly busy, but good busy instead of insane busy like the first 3-4 months this year.
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ugggahh. vote no, no, no.

My tax dollars need to fix stuff here, not keep propping up the world with an imaginary toothpick constructed of monopoly money. Wish my family could donate spend and lie about our bottom line and push all the debts out like they do not exist.
 
Atla said:
If we have a single dollar left laying around to send to another country, then we are being over taxed.

But of course, they will just print this 40 Billion... because they can.
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Say it louder for the ones at the back of the short bus.
 
My son told me the other day that his plant is doing less Halliburton and more Gov work. Apparently they make large bearings in one part of it. Makes me wonder about why the military, which is the gov work they have, has had an uptick. Not sure this applies here but still makes me think about the impending recession. I keep reading 1st quarter 2023.
 
ponykilr said:
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I'm actually kinda impressed. At least most of that list can be sorta tied back to Ukraine, and not completely random stuff like tracking penguin movements in Egypt or something. Of course I'm 99.9% sure the money will be used for anything except what the government says it will be used for.

Duane
 
Atla said:
If we have a single dollar left laying around to send to another country, then we are being over taxed.

But of course, they will just print this 40 Billion... because they can.
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I am 100% behind a balanced budget initiative and taking a hard look at handout programs that our taxes have to pay for.

But support to Ukraine right now should be a priority. First off, I rank this up as a core function of provide common defense. Russia has come out as a menace that has destabilized areas that have hit me in the wallet and they pose a significant future threat. I'm all about paying for Ukrainians to solve this vs. deploying our forces.

Also, programs like this to viable nations (if you need clarification see counter examples of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia) do have a great return on investment. We are a solid empire.. er.. I mean "world power" because of the Marshall Plan. I'd say the Ukrainians are good for it in the long run.
 
Southern_Transplant said:
I am 100% behind a balanced budget initiative and taking a hard look at handout programs that our taxes have to pay for.

But support to Ukraine right now should be a priority. First off, I rank this up as a core function of provide common defense. Russia has come out as a menace that has destabilized areas that have hit me in the wallet and they pose a significant future threat. I'm all about paying for Ukrainians to solve this vs. deploying our forces.

Also, programs like this to viable nations (if you need clarification see counter examples of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia) do have a great return on investment. We are a solid empire.. er.. I mean "world power" because of the Marshall Plan. I'd say the Ukrainians are good for it in the long run.
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I accept your perspective, because you are better versed on this than I am. But those SOB's in Washington need to quit taking and giving away my damn farcical currency because I actually need it and they won't let me print it myself.
 
Southern_Transplant said:
I'm all about paying for Ukrainians to solve this vs. deploying our forces.
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Since we spend more on our defense budget than the next ten countries combined, maybe we could take some money from that instead of printing more.

Duane
 
jeepinmatt said:
I accept your perspective, because you are better versed on this than I am. But those SOB's in Washington need to quit taking and giving away my damn farcical currency because I actually need it and they won't let me print it myself.
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Totally agree on forced wealth redistribution and the year after year subsidies for poor decision making skills.

But keep in mind, a while ago a European empire chose to subsidize a colonial insurgency against their near peer competition. That insurgency tied down the British empire for not one but two wars within 30 years. After that those crazy colonial rebels saved the French empire during two separate world wars.

Sometimes, you have to invest in a potential powerful ally. Based on the way the Ukrainians are scrapping it out, I'd buy that for a dollar.
 
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CLRracer said:
Since we spend more on our defense budget than the next ten countries combined, maybe we could take some money from that instead of printing more.

Duane
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I will forego giving you a list of the current programs of record and asking where to take the carve out. But in practical terms, we are spending defense budget funds on Ukraine. When we throw them the keys to all those howitzers and give them all that ammo, that's coming out of our defense stocks. Those items will need to be replaced.

I haven't seen the draft budget, but we are expecting a "resource constrained environment" for the foreseeable fiscal years to rebuild readiness. In other words, DoD will eat some of the cost of replacing what we give to Ukraine.

Also keep in mind the figures you hear about how much more we spend on defense are often bogus. If you relook China's math or consider comparable salaries and production costs you see we're not just pouring funds into the military industrial complex.
 
Southern_Transplant said:
I will forego giving you a list of the current programs of record and asking where to take the carve out. But in practical terms, we are spending defense budget funds on Ukraine. When we throw them the keys to all those howitzers and give them all that ammo, that's coming out of our defense stocks. Those items will need to be replaced.

I haven't seen the draft budget, but we are expecting a "resource constrained environment" for the foreseeable fiscal years to rebuild readiness. In other words, DoD will eat some of the cost of replacing what we give to Ukraine.

Also keep in mind the figures you hear about how much more we spend on defense are often bogus. If you relook China's math or consider comparable salaries and production costs you see we're not just pouring funds into the military industrial complex.
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I'm not going to pretend to know the details of any budget outside of my own, and I respect what you say. But I also have zero trust for the government and how they manage money. I know a just few of the games played at the local level, I can only imagine how it is exacerbated in an almost 13 figure budget.

Duane
 
CLRracer said:
I'm not going to pretend to know the details of any budget outside of my own, and I respect what you say. But I also have zero trust for the government and how they manage money. I know a just few of the games played at the local level, I can only imagine how it is exacerbated in an almost 13 figure budget.

Duane
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And that suspicion is 100% well placed. There are things we do (some by law) that shoot ourselves in the foot when it comes to what we get for our dollars. Then there are those cases where we just lay an egg on a major acquisition program (see U.S. Navy, Litoral Ships aka billion dollar razor blades in the making).
 
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CLRracer said:
I'm not going to pretend to know the details of any budget outside of my own, and I respect what you say. But I also have zero trust for the government and how they manage money. I know a just few of the games played at the local level, I can only imagine how it is exacerbated in an almost 13 figure budget.

Duane
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Like that 2.5mil fire station my department just built?!?

Pretty sad that I was the only nay to vote on that monstrosity.
 
Southern_Transplant said:
I haven't seen the draft budget, but we are expecting a "resource constrained environment" for the foreseeable fiscal years to rebuild readiness. In other words, DoD will eat some of the cost of replacing what we give to Ukraine.
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Seeing the same here for sure. In the R&D world we are preparing for pretty major cutbacks, with increasing pressure for programs that can justify immediate, high-probability-of-success deliverables.
 
awheelterd said:
Like that 2.5mil fire station my department just built?!?

Pretty sad that I was the only nay to vote on that monstrosity.
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Spending money on a big station is one thing. Not spending it wisely is something else. I haven't been in it, but just my 60mph opinion is there is a lot of space for trucks, but nowhere to sleep. In 5 years y'all will be doing like Cleveland and walling off a bay and turning it into living quarters.

Duane
 
CLRracer said:
Spending money on a big station is one thing. Not spending it wisely is something else. I haven't been in it, but just my 60mph opinion is there is a lot of space for trucks, but nowhere to sleep. In 5 years y'all will be doing like Cleveland and walling off a bay and turning it into living quarters.

Duane
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There is enough bay space for 10 trucks, 2 bunk rooms, a room that literally just has a huge TV and leather recliners (presumably for hardcore jerkoffs), a ridiculously huge commercial kitchen, and enough office space (including classic huge boardroom table) for a fortune 500 company.
 
shawn said:
So... Then we should have allowed them to make a deal with Russia when they suggested it, right?
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I'm not sure I am familiar with the deal that Ukraine suggested with regard to Russia that the U.S. blocked.

Did it involve maintaining their independence as a sovereign nation with the ability to choose their economic and defense partners freely?

If so, bad on us. As it stands, Russia made it pretty clear they see Ukraine as a subnation to mother Russia. As it has played out, our support of Ukraine has gained us a pretty clear demonstration of a near peer competitor/adversary's weakest points and alienated them from western Europe. Our continued support should also result in their military forces being depleted to such a point that they will not be able to project power for 20 years. That may not be an outcome you value. But I sure do. Europe was getting way to comfortable with dependency on Russian energy and allowing Russia to retake former satellite nations.

Now if there was an incident that had China rethink their strategy on Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. But that might be something for the next couple decades.
 
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