Recession coming?

CasterTroy said:
I see the bragging all over the web about how biden has created the lowest unemployment EVAH. But think about what happened prior to him coming into office. Covid closed and nearly bankrupted the entire food service industry as well as entertainment/concerts, all live events, leaving millions without a job. Factories all but closed, and the entire world came to a near stand-still, while trump was in office. Then the election and we "allow" 50% seating and SOME social activities, and loosen restrictions. Folks go back to work by the droves...and it's magically #becausebiden
I stand firmly in the middle of the road riding a steamroller hoping to catch either dem/rep in my sights to stain the highway, so I'm not suggesting either party is to blame, nor to praise..simply saying that like everything...it's who's still standing there in the office when things start LOOKING better.

The current administration is patting itself on the back on a ship sailing into a hurricane with a hole in it's side.
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They BOTH gave away WAY too much money and caused this inflation and coming recession.
 
CasterTroy said:
I see the bragging all over the web about how biden has created the lowest unemployment EVAH. But think about what happened prior to him coming into office. Covid closed and nearly bankrupted the entire food service industry as well as entertainment/concerts, all live events, leaving millions without a job. Factories all but closed, and the entire world came to a near stand-still, while trump was in office. Then the election and we "allow" 50% seating and SOME social activities, and loosen restrictions. Folks go back to work by the droves...and it's magically #becausebiden
I stand firmly in the middle of the road riding a steamroller hoping to catch either dem/rep in my sights to stain the highway, so I'm not suggesting either party is to blame, nor to praise..simply saying that like everything...it's who's still standing there in the office when things start LOOKING better.

The current administration is patting itself on the back on a ship sailing into a hurricane with a hole in it's side.
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Which for anyone with conservative leanings is honestly the biggest fear.
Biden has been a bafoon. Its conceivable if not even probable that the GOP wins the next POTUS election. That likely trends about the same time as the most probable recession launch.....Suddenly you have a populous of sheep convinced that this ecession was caused by the GOP and the Covid Pandemic was caused by the GOP and ...."summer and winters scatter like splintters and 20 more years slip away"
 
Ron said:
Which for anyone with conservative leanings is honestly the biggest fear.
Biden has been a bafoon. Its conceivable if not even probable that the GOP wins the next POTUS election. That likely trends about the same time as the most probable recession launch.....Suddenly you have a populous of sheep convinced that this ecession was caused by the GOP and the Covid Pandemic was caused by the GOP and ...."summer and winters scatter like splintters and 20 more years slip away"
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So what you're saying is the GOP needs to take back the congress, but let the Dems hold the white house through the recession?
 
paradisePWoffrd said:
So what you're saying is the GOP needs to take back the congress, but let the Dems hold the white house through the recession?
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Yes.

When there's gridlock and nothing is accomplished in Washington the country thrives
 
Since WWII, the average recession has lasted 10 months. If it happens, it will be during Biden's third year (2023).
 
drkelly said:
Since WWII, the average recession has lasted 10 months. If it happens, it will be during Biden's third year (2023).
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What about our current economy is average or normal? It's hard to believe that past trends are going to be very predictive.
 
RatLabGuy said:
What about our current economy is average or normal? It's hard to believe that past trends are going to be very predictive.
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Most experts I've been following agree that if a recession is going to happen, then it will begin in late 2022/early 2023. Many experts disagree on if a recession is going to happen at all, and how bad it will be. I think that is due to the abnormal current economy, that as you mentioned isn't good for predicting the future. The ball is in the Fed's court.


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I'll believe we're in a recession when the pressure washing business falls off. It seems like everyone and their brother washes houses these days. Theres a lot of money being spent to knock a little mildew off.
 
awheelterd said:
I'll believe we're in a recession when the pressure washing business falls off. It seems like everyone and their brother washes houses these days. Theres a lot of money being spent to knock a little mildew off.
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Cause all the HOAs send threatening letters when they think they see some mildew. Probably pressure washers on all the HOA boards! 😁
Thank God I got out of an HOA ‘hood several years ago.
 
justjeepin86 said:
Speaking of, I need to have my house washed, lol
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Me too!
I was waiting until after all the neighborhood houses sold... to help limit getting uppity neighbors.
 
There is a hiring freeze at my work. Some changes to big projects too. It seems like they are buckling up for a possible rough ride in the near future. Some people are still leaving though for greener pastures.

Anyone else seeing a slow down or preparation for a slow down at their work?
 
drkelly said:
There is a hiring freeze at my work. Some changes to big projects too. It seems like they are buckling up for a possible rough ride in the near future. Some people are still leaving though for greener pastures.

Anyone else seeing a slow down or preparation for a slow down at their work?
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We laid off 1250 last week.
 
Probably should add. A lot of tech companies have been doing the same over the past month or two if you haven’t been paying attention. I won’t add some of my opinions since we aren’t in the garage. But the list of tech companies that have laid off recently just off the top of my head : Amazon, meta, elastic, coin base, plaid, lyft, DoorDash, stripe, etc

(Also many others on hiring freezes) but plenty also still hiring also, the hyper growth companies are getting hit the hardest.
 
drkelly said:
There is a hiring freeze at my work. Some changes to big projects too. It seems like they are buckling up for a possible rough ride in the near future. Some people are still leaving though for greener pastures.

Anyone else seeing a slow down or preparation for a slow down at their work?
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We're seeing residential permits and construction slowing down rapidly. Luckily we do zero residential stuff. But I hear it from other yards and suppliers. Our commercial accounts are still killing it. New stuff popping up everywhere.
Around here, literally everyone is still hiring. Sign on bonuses, high pay, etc.
 
High end residential at least for us is still going pretty hard around asheville. We signed a 4 million dollar remodel last week.
I work on the commercial side and work with alot of developers. It seems most of them are hedging their bets on the market slowing down and less work for subs so they can get bigger projects done for cheaper.
 
Loganwayne said:
High end residential at least for us is still going pretty hard around asheville. We signed a 4 million dollar remodel last week.
I work on the commercial side and work with alot of developers. It seems most of them are hedging their bets on the market slowing down and less work for subs so they can get bigger projects done for cheaper.
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I appreciate you guys taking on that project for me. It's just a little remodel on the wife's mountain chalet. I told her not to spend a bunch on it, so thanks for keeping it in the single digits.
 
Things are slowing down some for us. Seeing a few projects put on 90 and 120 day holds, and these are already under contract. Also seeing a shift in whos building what.
 
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