Stock market investments now or later and who?

Will Carter said:
I challenge you to start thinking about the market in a different way. Was it this news that caused this bounce or was it the fact that any firm or fund (the real market makers) that shorted some of this drop in the past few weeks all had converging profit targets on a 1:2 risk/reward ratio all at about the same point on the chart?
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It could have also been that the S&P500 did hit the 10% down level right after lunch, which may have triggered some buying.
 
Will Carter said:
You got this one right on the money though. We just trying to ride the coat tails of all the people you listed and their manipulations. That's the game.
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I think this is the key, tome.

I like to use a card analogy. A good poker player can absolutely tilt the odds in their favor by reading the players and knowing the odds and playing the odds. But even the best poker player will sometimes get beat by the idiot pushing in with pocket 2s catching 2 more on the reveal.

Charts, tips, history can give you some insight into market forces and human emotions and somewhat predict most likely happenings.
What drives me crazy, and I am not suggest @Will Carter is doing this, per se, but all too often stock bros will proclaim and confuse that the charts "caused" the action. The charts had no impact, they are just an indicator of what happened other similar times.

Back to the card analogy. Its a single deck game of black jack. Just because you can see (3) 2s in the discard...its less likely that the draw is a 2...but there is still a 2 floating in there somewhere...

Im a boring buy and hold investor in the market. It aint sexy, but Ill beat 98% of traders over the long haul. The 2% will either get lucky and get out forever, or they will end up billionaire ex-pats. There is no other option.
 
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Will Carter said:
I guess my point is this was a thread started about advice on when and what to invest in the stock market and anytime someone asks for or seeks out advice on this subject they're met with loud voices (media and salesman and individuals) telling them about the cherry they picked instead of actual advice. I'm just picking on you because you're the only one talking and the mutual fund salesman seems to have gone away.


Let's talk about these investments instead of random Tesla. What have been your recent moves and what's your plan here? Did you sell it all when you called the top back in February?


I challenge you to start thinking about the market in a different way. Was it this news that caused this bounce or was it the fact that any firm or fund (the real market makers) that shorted some of this drop in the past few weeks all had converging profit targets on a 1:2 risk/reward ratio all at about the same point on the chart?

Weekly chart sellers.
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Daily chart sellers

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You are definitely looking at the market through a different lens. I am interested in learning what you are doing, but a little scared after you stated how many hours you have spent to gain that knowledge, LOL.
 
Ron said:
... that the charts "caused" the action. The charts had no impact, they are just an indicator of what happened other similar times.
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Correct. The massive firms and funds made the charts look like they do. However, these big players will absolutely spend millions to make the chart print a good looking candle to entice others (retail...me) to buy/sell along with them. And on the other side they'll spend millions to print a good looking bar with the sole intention of reversing it after retail gets in and use their stop losses as liquidity to go the direction they want. You can see it happen daily on the smaller time frames.
drkelly said:
It could have also been that the S&P500 did hit the 10% down level right after lunch, which may have triggered some buying.
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10% down is a much more practical way of looking at it. Plenty of people using that logic to put more cash into the market.


Another thing on the large ETF's... It's easy to just think long... there's always cash on the sidelines waiting to buy in. It's what you're told do from and early working age. Save some to the side. Put it in your 401k. Buy some investments. So there's always a pile of cash waiting in the 401k fund managers accounts that need to buy in. Hopefully they're buying in a better times than the top, but it's sitting there needing to find a good spot to get in.

And ... if the SP500 goes to $0 and you lose all your money, we all got bigger problems than our retirement accounts...


EDIT: So here's my 'stock investing' tip: Don't. At least not individually. Unless you're willing to spend 1000 hours of your life learning and trusting a price action system, or studying balance sheets and news feeds. I think my first post in this thread describes what you should educate yourself on real quick with order entries. Buy some sp500 - SPY (or VOO or whatever your brokerage has) every time it drops 5% from the high. Then buy some more if it goes 10% from the high. Then sell some every time it raises 5% and 10% from the point at which you bought. Break your total position size up into thirds. Maybe 1/3 stays in all the time. The other 2 1/3's get bought and sold on those 5 and 10% moves.
 
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Dang trade war heating up over wine and whiskey, LOL.
 
The S&P500 broke below the 10% level that happened after lunch yesterday. I think there is more downside ahead.
 
And yeah, I pracitce what I'm preaching here daily...
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