Stock market investments now or later and who?

I saw this same ad last week, except it was 4.00. Are the markets expecting a rate increase next time now? Looks like it to me.

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benXJ said:
let's go!
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Assuming you saw the 10-k was filed yesterday with the 427mm actually listed as on the audit review?

It’s slower than I’d like but still has a chance to run
 
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Looks like boots are going to hit the ground in the next few days. Sold most of my royal Caribbean and bought more oil stocks this morning

Also listening to the Shawn Ryan - Joe Kent podcast. 100% convinced this wont wind down any time soon. Trying to decide which other stocks to dump to put into oil
 
awheelterd said:
Looks like boots are going to hit the ground in the next few days. Sold most of my royal Caribbean and bought more oil stocks this morning

Also listening to the Shawn Ryan - Joe Kent podcast. 100% convinced this wont wind down any time soon. Trying to decide which other stocks to dump to put into oil
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Shame you didn't have insider info like the ones the other day........
 
awheelterd said:
Looks like boots are going to hit the ground in the next few days. Sold most of my royal Caribbean and bought more oil stocks this morning

Also listening to the Shawn Ryan - Joe Kent podcast. 100% convinced this wont wind down any time soon. Trying to decide which other stocks to dump to put into oil
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I have a few k on the sidelines I have been waiting to put into a an ETF in an IRA, it may be getting parked into an energy one for a bit to offset the losses from everything else. OR sit on it and wait for the market to tank further as this mess drags on and stuff starts going on sale.
 
S&P down about 9% now. I'm guessing this turns into a typical correction of about 10-15%. I think the Iran situation will be over in roughly about 2-4 weeks. Oil will drop to $70 barrel very quickly, and the market will reverse directions.
 
Not trying to pick on @drkelly again, but this market has nothing to do with the war in whatever country. This market has been in profit taking since October of last year. I think I made some calls to the like if anybody wants to scroll back. It's a hard game trying to make or save money on the news. Most people will wait to the point that they should be buying when they're fear selling.


This was my last sell to go to cash on SP500 SPY. There was no war on the news. Just a chart that hadn't broken out to the upside for the fourth or so time.

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I was just going to come talk shit but I guess I could be helpful since I'm at the computer doing a bit of analysis myself...

This is what I mean when I say "profit taking"...

Say you were an investor that did their job halfway right and you were sitting in cash after the big 20% pull back starting in February of last year. You're just sitting and waiting for that buy signal to get back in the party.

Well the week of 4/21/25 was that signal. That week trapped more scared sellers from the week before (selling the news probably, was this tariff stuff?) and then finished strong. If you're taking that investment opportunity guess where you better be holding until?
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Then it comes along another week later and provides you with another nice looking follow through bar and a higher new swing point (stop loss spot). Again, another decent buy where you can get in for a second chance or add on to your position. Guess where you're taking your money on that one?
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Then low and behold a couple months later we're staring at another breakout from the highs and follow through. If there was a last chance on the move this is it. And again, a smart investor doesn't press their luck and takes the 1:2 risk reward, all day, every day (or weeks and months in this case).
Weekly Trade 3.PNG


And there's a few more fun little 'coincidences' in the futures market that illustrate this point more. Depending on which way and time frame you like to analyze there's probably a dozen higher time frame (monthly, weekly, daily) reasons to take your profits at around 690.

Happy dart throwing.
 
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Oh here's a sexy one. If you were in the bunch that took the first investment opportunity from the previous post you took your first profits around that first little higher black candle to the left. (the first one touching the top green line).

So you're sitting there with a portion of your cash waiting for the next break out and follow through to put it on again. That never comes. But you know that first big black bar to the left has some stranded sellers sitting there and you know where the new swing point (stop point) is (bottom red line) and you deduce that it's a high probability thing that we'll go back and visit the highs again for such a strong trend. So you slap your buy limit order at the close of the big black bar knowing that anyone who sold the close of that bar (that week) will be happy to get out at break even and sell that short to you for your long buy. And 1:2 is the name of the game.

I got a little sloppy with the drawing here but I zoomed in and this trade went off exactly to the tick. Meaning the top take profit reward point was hit and wen past by .01 then reversed back down with profit taking for the next two weeks. That means everybody who took that trade made their money because it hit the bid on .01 higher price. That's 4 weeks of price action...to the .01 tick.

If this ain't a fun game...

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Will Carter said:
Oh here's a sexy one. If you were in the bunch that took the first investment opportunity from the previous post you took your first profits around that first little higher black candle to the left. (the first one touching the top green line).

So you're sitting there with a portion of your cash waiting for the next break out and follow through to put it on again. That never comes. But you know that first big black bar to the left has some stranded sellers sitting there and you know where the new swing point (stop point) is (bottom red line) and you deduce that it's a high probability thing that we'll go back and visit the highs again for such a strong trend. So you slap your buy limit order at the close of the big black bar knowing that anyone who sold the close of that bar (that week) will be happy to get out at break even and sell that short to you for your long buy. And 1:2 is the name of the game.

I got a little sloppy with the drawing here but I zoomed in and this trade went off exactly to the tick. Meaning the top take profit reward point was hit and wen past by .01 then reversed back down with profit taking for the next two weeks. That means everybody who took that trade made their money because it hit the bid on .01 higher price. That's 4 weeks of price action...to the .01 tick.

If this ain't a fun game...

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I dont understand half of what youre posting 😅 and to say half might be generous 🤣.

Do you only play with your money or do you broker? I wouldnt mind tossing some doll hairs at you if for nothing more than to see if you can turn it better than what I do, because Im honestly too dumb for the jargon.

Edit: please dont take this as me doubting you, I literally dont understand how you view the market and wouldnt mind putting some skin in the game to see how far off my perception is from yours
 
awheelterd said:
I dont understand half of what youre posting 😅 and to say half might be generous 🤣.

Do you only play with your money or do you broker? I wouldnt mind tossing some doll hairs at you if for nothing more than to see if you can turn it better than what I do, because Im honestly too dumb for the jargon.

Edit: please dont take this as me doubting you, I literally dont understand how you view the market and wouldnt mind putting some skin in the game to see how far off my perception is from yours
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No, I’m still too chicken to take any outside money yet. I had hoped to be further along on getting a basic license to do that ‘legally’ at this point but got distracted by a business opportunity late last year. That seems to have fizzled out though so maybe I’ll get back to it.
 
Will Carter said:
Using your method of tracking the news, when and what did you sell (or buy)? What news will make you buy (or sell) it back?
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I'm an investor, not a trader, so I don't jump in and out of the market. I didn't sell anything recently, but my wife sold all of her CCL several months back which turned out to be a great decision. Once the US started to position a few ships close to Iran at the beginning of this year I figured war was inevitable and we would see a decline in the market. I don't think we are on the precipice of WW3. I believe within the US will have control of the Strait of Hormuz in a matter of weeks, and the war will essentially be over. Oil prices will immediately fall rapidly, and the stock market will reverse its decline. The DOW is already in correction territory, and the S&P500 will like get there this coming week. I would be a buyer over the coming weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the market recovers completely and sets a new ATH by the end of this year.

I just sort of get a feel for it after 20-30 yrs. I'm far from an expert though, or I would already be retired from my day job. I'm close to retirement though, so I am content with continuing to take the cautious steady approach.
 
drkelly said:
I'm close to retirement though, so I am content with continuing to take the cautious steady approach.
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I think this is my point. If you're close to retirement and you plan to live off some of these funds, at some point, you want to start acting more like a trader. What if this past few weeks is the start of a 2008-esque 50% drop? What if some buildings get knocked down in New York tomorrow? At some point in life this is no longer a 'cautious, steady approach" because you kinda want to be done with income coming in and just ride out what you got, right?

Sure you have to expect that you might not make as much year over year in the market as a whole, but you damn sure won't lose half your money hoping the populace comes back around in your favor.

Again, not picking on you directly, I have this same conversation with my mother who is well past her income producing days, but she still listens to her financial salesman and has her money sitting in a 'safe' retirement account that barely keeps up with inflation on the good years. In her case she could live comfortably on one 5% move a year in the S&P. A 5% move happened at least 5 times in 2025 only playing on beautifully solid weekly buy signals and never went against you more than a few days.

As I've been reading the books to get my 'financial advisor' bullshit license it's amazing how much of it seems to just be jargon to help you give excuses for market behavior and keep your customers in the market. There has yet to be a chapter that says "cash in an account is the best option at this point in the market cycle" even though that's the best option about half of the time for most people.
 
benXJ said:
and all the jargon that has to be made up to validate the need for all the types of investors, advisors, and/or salesmen that get their cut

same with all the nonsense surrounding real estate transactions.
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It's like anything, it's a from of gatekeeping to keep people out/think you need their services. Once you learn the fundamentals it's easy to understand and make money over time.

I used to think welding was some sort of a voodoo art requiring years of training based off internet jargon (pirate4x4 circa 2001), then I hung out with a "pro" welder (he got paid to do it lol) and I realized if he can do it I can. Now am I TIG welding aircraft heat exchangers, no, but I can weld well enough for this hobby. Stocks are the same, the fundamentals are easy once you wade through the jargon, it gets hard once you get into the more advanced topics like options and shit like that
 
Will Carter said:
I think this is my point. If you're close to retirement and you plan to live off some of these funds, at some point, you want to start acting more like a trader. What if this past few weeks is the start of a 2008-esque 50% drop? What if some buildings get knocked down in New York tomorrow? At some point in life this is no longer a 'cautious, steady approach" because you kinda want to be done with income coming in and just ride out what you got, right?

Sure you have to expect that you might not make as much year over year in the market as a whole, but you damn sure won't lose half your money hoping the populace comes back around in your favor.

Again, not picking on you directly, I have this same conversation with my mother who is well past her income producing days, but she still listens to her financial salesman and has her money sitting in a 'safe' retirement account that barely keeps up with inflation on the good years. In her case she could live comfortably on one 5% move a year in the S&P. A 5% move happened at least 5 times in 2025 only playing on beautifully solid weekly buy signals and never went against you more than a few days.

As I've been reading the books to get my 'financial advisor' bullshit license it's amazing how much of it seems to just be jargon to help you give excuses for market behavior and keep your customers in the market. There has yet to be a chapter that says "cash in an account is the best option at this point in the market cycle" even though that's the best option about half of the time for most people.
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My thinking is the exact opposite of what you are describing. I believe in trading more, and taking more chances when young, then becoming more conservative as we age. Two of my father's friends were HEAVILY invested in tech stocks in the late 90's. After the crash, one of them had to come out of retirement and go back to work for several years. The other had to delay retirement many years.

Several years back I created a spreadsheet that calculates our projected monthly income at various ages based on 401k withdrawals, SS, pensions, and E-trade accnt withdrawals. Our goal is to work until we have saved a VERY comfortable buffer such that if another massive crash hit the markets, we would not have to change our lifestyle in retirement. So far things are looking good.

Since you mentioned 2025, the S&P500 went up 17.9% that year. Trading a 5% move 5 times in 2025 would have beat an index fund, but you would be required to pay short term capital gains tax on all of those transactions. Were you able to beat the S&P500 in 2025 with your trading of SPY and accounting for paying short term capital gains tax on what you made? Can you do it year after year after year? If so, hats off to you because that is VERY hard to do.
 
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