This year’s Nobel Peace Prize goes to President Barack Obama, in part for his push to (someday, somehow) reduce nuclear weapons stockpiles to zero. In announcing the prize, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said Obama had “created a new climate in international politics… Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts. The vision of a world free from nuclear arms has powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations.”
The committee was referring in part to the president’s April speech in Prague, in which he outlined his vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. But now that the president is getting the credit, it’s important to take a look at how, exactly, this “no-nukes” push is playing out. After all, according to a member of the prize committee, “this was primarily an award on [Obama's] work on and commitment to nuclear disarmament.”
First, the administration is supposed to negotiate a new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia before the current one expires at the end of this year. Mission accomplished? Not yet, although talks recently got underway, and the administration’s decision to scrap missile defense in Europe may help smooth negotiations.
Obama also said he wants to see ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which the United States signed, but which the Senate did not ratify. That hasn’t happened yet either, although Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently took part in a biennial conference designed to win more support for the treaty. (The White House wants to push for ratification next year).
The president has also proposed a new treaty to halt production of fissile materials. That, to borrow a marvelous bit of Pentagonspeak, is a long pole in the tent. The UN Conference on Disarmament was stalled for over a decade trying to launch talks on a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, in part because of U.S. objections. A verifiable cutoff treaty now has much broader support, but don’t expect India and Pakistan (who both still produce the stuff) to come to an quick agreement.
Finally, expect the Nobel Prize award to turn the spotlight on internal disagreements within the administration over the future of the nuclear weapons stockpile. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, for instance, has said in the past that United States needs the Reliable Replacement Warhead, a new nuclear weapon design, if it is to maintain a moratorium on nuclear weapons testing while reducing stockpiles. It will be interesting to see if this prize changes the debate about re-sizing the nuclear arsenal.
