Housing market trash

awheelterd said:
Random thought, but moreso relevant to this thread. Does anyone actually trust analysis from economist from Zillow or realtor.com?
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I don’t. But the average buyer does.

Zillow owned a crap ton of properties and artificially inflated house values in many markets to increase value of their own properties.
 
Zillow bought a house in my old neighborhood for $195k, gutted and renovated it,(new roof, floors, wall, paint, windows, water heater, trash removal, hoarder situation, etc) and sold it for $189k. Bunch of damn idiots.

Gave up on buying a house and gonna just live in my truck. Payment is about the same either way:dumbass:
 
rockcity said:
I don’t. But the average buyer does.

Zillow owned a crap ton of properties and artificially inflated house values in many markets to increase value of their own properties.
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And then backed out because they still couldn't make money.
 
awheelterd said:
Random thought, but moreso relevant to this thread. Does anyone actually trust analysis from economist from Zillow or realtor.com?
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Zillow and my refi appraisal were pretty close back in December…but they were 50-75k lower than what my realtor thought I could realistically get in the market at the time.
 
UTfball68 said:
Zillow and my refi appraisal were pretty close back in December…but they were 50-75k lower than what my realtor thought I could realistically get in the market at the time.
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So who was right? When I refi'd in late 2020, i got such a shitty spot that I had to put down 10k to avoid PMI. Fast forward 6 mos, Zillow had me at literally double my appraisal. I haven't shopped my setup so I dont actually know what it's worth to someone though.
 
A good realtor, like Marti Hampton or similar, knows the real value…which is what someone will pay.
 
awheelterd said:
So who was right? When I refi'd in late 2020, i got such a shitty spot that I had to put down 10k to avoid PMI. Fast forward 6 mos, Zillow had me at literally double my appraisal. I haven't shopped my setup so I dont actually know what it's worth to someone though.
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Couldn’t tell ya…but my appraisal did specifically note that it wasn’t higher because houses on my end of the market were getting harder to comp and were staying on the market longer. My neighbor (two houses down) listed for $775k on April 7th, Zillow said $650k. 4000sq/ft, right at an acre. Cheaper sq/ft and larger lot than what my sister just paid for. They pulled the listing last week (60 days) because it wasn’t selling. It’s a second home for them, when they come to visit family. Since it was mostly vacant anyway, they don’t care…but I’d look at it as an indicator that my appraisal was probably correct.

That’s why I think location, demographic and target market play a much bigger role in the blanket statement of ‘there’s a housing shortage’ than is given credit. Not much drawing folks to Granite Quarry, NC…and not a lot of jobs locally that can support buying a $500k-$1mil home. Edit…maybe the statement should be more like ‘there’s a housing shortage in starter homes or for lower earning families in and around large cities’…but then how does that reconcile with more conservative folks that say minimum wage/low earners was never intended to support a family or buy a home…or stop living outside your means and stop having kids. But I’m sure @shawn can find us a chart of median income/census numbers that could support who’s looking for homes and where, that could tell us and clear it all up. But If that data is out there, I have no idea why builders and developers aren’t targeting that market.

I still think there’s going to be a wild equilibrium point in the next couple years where folks with $250k homes of today and folks with $500k homes of today will be appealing to the same buyers. Meaning we’ve created a new floor at $250k (at least in my area)…and we’ll see todays $500k homes trend downward again.
 
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I have two homes and Zillow is incorrect on both from size, rooms/baths and doesn’t take into account things like pools, proximity to water, etc. on either.

I spent 17.5 years in banking with the last 8 in mortgage. I have friends that have their own mortgage company. Don’t trust Zillow for anything.
 
AdamH said:
I have two homes and Zillow is incorrect on both from size, rooms/baths and doesn’t take into account things like pools, proximity to water, etc. on either.

I spent 17.5 years in banking with the last 8 in mortgage. I have friends that have their own mortgage company. Don’t trust Zillow for anything.
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You can claim ownership and update that for a more accurate "estimate".
 
@ramjo told me about a conversation he had with a lady that's going to build a house just down the road from where I'm building. Pretty basic 1400ish square feet and she'd been quoted $480,000 by another local builder. Was talking to a buddy last night and he said a mutual friend was also looking to build a house here...2500 sq ft on a half finished basement was quoted $980,000. :eek::eek::eek:
 
jcramsey said:
@ramjo told me about a conversation he had with a lady that's going to build a house just down the road from where I'm building. Pretty basic 1400ish square feet and she'd been quoted $480,000 by another local builder. Was talking to a buddy last night and he said a mutual friend was also looking to build a house here...2500 sq ft on a half finished basement was quoted $980,000. :eek::eek::eek:
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$275 sq/ft here gets you Lowes/HD type finishes. The building market is crazy overpriced compared to recent history.
 
www.cnbc.com

30-year mortgage rate surges to 6.28%, up from 5.5% just a week ago

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Higher home prices and rates have crushed home affordability.

For instance, on a $400,000 home, with a 20% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment went from $1,399 at the start of January to $1,976 today, a difference of $577. That does not include homeowners insurance nor property taxes.

It also does not include the fact that the home is about 20% more expensive than it was a year ago.
 
Friend of mine is a realtor…says this is the first time she’s gotten decrease notifications in over a year…and these are all from today. Maybe an anomaly…maybe the beginning of a trend…

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Not saying this is the start of things coming back down - not saying it isn't but...

Our vacation home is in Sunset Beach on the Island. We are watching closely for future planning on owning rental properties. For the past almost 2 years we have watched record setting prices for homes selling on the island. I mean - houses that sold 4 years ago for $600k sell for $850k without any renovations in a matter of days if not hours of being on the market.

However within the past 2 months there are homes going on the market for these same stupid % increase and crickets..... Our realtor stated that these folks missed the boat. Where as before houses were selling sight-unseen some of these places aren't even getting phones calls for showings. And we're not talking about just one or two properties. Some have already been taken back off the market.

Time will tell
 
AdamH said:
Not saying this is the start of things coming back down - not saying it isn't but...

Our vacation home is in Sunset Beach on the Island. We are watching closely for future planning on owning rental properties. For the past almost 2 years we have watched record setting prices for homes selling on the island. I mean - houses that sold 4 years ago for $600k sell for $850k without any renovations in a matter of days if not hours of being on the market.

However within the past 2 months there are homes going on the market for these same stupid % increase and crickets..... Our realtor stated that these folks missed the boat. Where as before houses were selling sight-unseen some of these places aren't even getting phones calls for showings. And we're not talking about just one or two properties. Some have already been taken back off the market.

Time will tell
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Another data point...those lots on the back east side of Sunset on Riverside drive were $300-400k back in 2019ish and there were tons of em. Now the cheapest one available is almost $600k and is right at the entrance and will be surrounded by mere peasant houses.
 
I feel bad for anybody right in the middle of a trade up that may get left holding the bag on their current house. My brother may be in the spot, they closed on new place last month and are just now listing the old one.
 
UTfball68 said:
Friend of mine is a realtor…says this is the first time she’s gotten decrease notifications in over a year…and these are all from today. Maybe an anomaly…maybe the beginning of a trend…

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I have been seeing some decreases over the last month or so... but it is typically houses out in the country 30min from anything. Of course they are also way over priced compared to previous years.
 
paradisePWoffrd said:
I have been seeing some decreases over the last month or so... but it is typically houses out in the country 30min from anything. Of course they are also way over priced compared to previous years.
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My assumption is this is where the decline will start, just due to the lower overall demand.
As long as people keep moving into the population centers the demand will stay reasonable and the drop is likely to be slow.
I'm also assuming there will be a pretty rapid dropoff in the people who already live in an area and are moving "just because" while the incoming/new folks will still continue.
 
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