Housing market trash

UTfball68 said:
I’m not disagreeing everything is up, I’m just saying I don’t think it’s sustainable or realistic to think those items are on a perpetual upward trajectory.
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When was the last time they devalued the dollar 40% in 12 months' time?
 
UTfball68 said:
there’s always a bubble and the market always self-corrects
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Can you draw a circle around the bubble?

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So what you’re saying is that you’d be willing to bet the amount your house has appreciated over the last 12 months, that it will still be worth what it is today, or more, 3-5 years from now? I don’t.
 
UTfball68 said:
So what you’re saying is that you’d be willing to bet the amount your house has appreciated over the last 12 months, that it will still be worth what it is today, or more, 3-5 years from now? I don’t.
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Why are you dodging the question?
 
UTfball68 said:
So what you’re saying is that you’d be willing to bet the amount your house has appreciated over the last 12 months, that it will still be worth what it is today, or more, 3-5 years from now? I don’t.
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I do. He is in the Raleigh market. Look at the last bubble for Charlotte and Raleigh prices. I have no idea what the numbers are, but I'd guess it was mostly just a blip on the radar that was fully regained in a few years.
 
I hate to say it, but @shawn is definitely onto something.
Bubbles happen when something is way out of proportion and has to come down in order to maintain balance.
If literally everything goes up in price roughly equally, ten the only thing happening is broad-scale inflation and the general sense of what a dollar is is changing.

Or better yet, a bubble can pop.. .what would cause this to pop?
Remember that mean wages are going up too....
 
I hate to say it, but @shawn is definitely onto something.
RatLabGuy said:
Bubbles happen when something is way out of proportion and has to come down in order to maintain balance.
If literally everything goes up in price roughly equally, ten the only thing happening is broad-scale inflation and the general sense of what a dollar is is changing.

Or better yet, a bubble can pop.. .what would cause this to pop?
Remember that mean wages are going up too....
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For the record, I’m not arguing inflation, I’m not even arguing we’re underpriced when normalized over the last 30 years…or that there’s even a housing shortage. However, there will be a point where pricing plateaus as a result of buyer barrier of entry. Interest rates won’t stay this low. There will come a point stimulus money won’t be around for down payments. There will come a point new construction ramps up again. There will come a point competition with remote workers will taper off. I’m just not seeing how a 20% YoY increase in home prices doesn’t correct itself once those variables normalize. Then what happens if prices do start dropping, just like with any other investment, people are willing to a take a little hit now, so they don’t take a big hit later…and start unloading until we find the bottom. Then as a result of inflation, we settle into ‘new normal’…I just think we’re artificially higher than we should be now.
 
UTfball68 said:
I hate to say it, but @shawn is definitely onto something.


For the record, I’m not arguing inflation, I’m not even arguing we’re underpriced when normalized over the last 30 years…or that there’s even a housing shortage. However, there will be a point where pricing plateaus as a result of buyer barrier of entry. Interest rates won’t stay this low. There will come a point stimulus money won’t be around for down payments. There will come a point new construction ramps up again. There will come a point competition with remote workers will taper off. I’m just not seeing how a 20% YoY increase in home prices doesn’t correct itself once those variables normalize. Then what happens if prices do start dropping, just like with any other investment, people are willing to a take a little hit now, so they don’t take a big hit later…and start unloading until we find the bottom. Then as a result of inflation, we settle into ‘new normal’…I just think we’re artificially higher than we should be now.
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But now you're hedging your language.
A plateau is not a bubble.
A flat line becomes a downward trend because there is something pushing (or pulling) it back down.
Where does the pressure come from to create your bubble?
The Fed has made it clear they are not increasing interest rates any time soon. And if they do, it will be intentionaly very gradual.
Yeah, unemployment benefits will cease.. and then people will return to working, and getting salaries roughly what they are now while riding the system. It's not like the demand for employees isn't there.
 
The folks I sold my 1100 sq ft 1940s block house to for $80 K five years ago are fixing to list it for $210 K. Still trying to figure out what actually dictates appraisal prices, cause anybody that pays that and any bank that loans that on that house is crazy...
 
RatLabGuy said:
But now you're hedging your language.
A plateau is not a bubble.
A flat line becomes a downward trend because there is something pushing (or pulling) it back down.
Where does the pressure come from to create your bubble?
The Fed has made it clear they are not increasing interest rates any time soon. And if they do, it will be intentionaly very gradual.
Yeah, unemployment benefits will cease.. and then people will return to working, and getting salaries roughly what they are now while riding the system. It's not like the demand for employees isn't there.
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If you’re going to cherry pick, you’re right…but the plateau is one very specific piece of a very specific portion of the scenario over a period of time. Bottom line, no one can deny prices have increased very rapidly in a rather short period of time. Loosely remembering finance 301, we’re sitting somewhere in the boom/euphoria phase of a potential bubble. And that means we’re at the critical point of determining whether the greater fool theory (ie there will always be a buyer willing to pay the price) will be proven or disproven. If it’s proven that’s the tipping point to the slide downward. If it’s disproven, Shawn is right and what we’re experiencing is the new normal. Personally, I think there will be a down turn and hindsight is 20/20.
 
If the value of a dollar decreases 33%, and the cost of a house increases 50%, does the actual worth change?

Now if the value of the dollar decreases 33%, the cost of a house increases 50%, salaries increase 20%, and mortgage rates lower the monthly payment 20%, does anything change?
 
jeepinmatt said:
If the value of a dollar decreases 33%, and the cost of a house increases 50%, does the actual worth change?

Now if the value of the dollar decreases 33%, the cost of a house increases 50%, salaries increase 20%, and mortgage rates lower the monthly payment 20%, does anything change?
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Depends if you want to view things in a perpetual unchanging vacuum or an actual dynamic economy and what segment of that economy. My take is, the house will drop from that 50% increase, the low mortgage will increase. Then you're still stuck with a devalued dollar and maybe wages increase or stay the same or have metropolitan pockets that skew the average. But again, only time will tell, and I'm sure most folks that were reaping rewards previously thought their time in history would be different too.
 
jeepinmatt said:
If the value of a dollar decreases 33%, and the cost of a house increases 50%, does the actual worth change?

Now if the value of the dollar decreases 33%, the cost of a house increases 50%, salaries increase 20%, and mortgage rates lower the monthly payment 20%, does anything change?
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I see many of those things happening, except the salary increase. I am for sure hoping mine will start to catch up with the inflation.
 
Don’t care what anyone says, home values are being falsely inflated out of control and it’s not if but when the market will crash again. I’ve got about $250k in my house that was built in the last crash and it is now worth ruffly $750k in 13 years time. No way with interest rates being historically low and material costs being higher than bird pussy the market won’t crash. When rates start to rise and material costs stay the same or increase the market will make the turn for the worst.
 
jeepinmatt said:
If the value of a dollar decreases 33%, and the cost of a house increases 50%, does the actual worth change?

Now if the value of the dollar decreases 33%, the cost of a house increases 50%, salaries increase 20%, and mortgage rates lower the monthly payment 20%, does anything change?
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UTfball68 said:
Depends if you want to view things in a perpetual unchanging vacuum or an actual dynamic economy and what segment of that economy. My take is, the house will drop from that 50% increase, the low mortgage will increase. Then you're still stuck with a devalued dollar and maybe wages increase or stay the same or have metropolitan pockets that skew the average. But again, only time will tell, and I'm sure most folks that were reaping rewards previously thought their time in history would be different too.
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shawn said:
Why are you dodging the question?
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:p
 
obullfish said:
Don’t care what anyone says, home values are being falsely inflated out of control and it’s not if but when the market will crash again. I’ve got about $250k in my house that was built in the last crash and it is now worth ruffly $750k in 13 years time. No way with interest rates being historically low and material costs being higher than bird pussy the market won’t crash. When rates start to rise and material costs stay the same or increase the market will make the turn for the worst.
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Sell sell sell.

Rent for a couple years, then buy when the market crashes again. Maybe you can buy your old house back at a foreclosure auction. :D
 
rockcity said:
Sell sell sell.

Rent for a couple years, then buy when the market crashes again. Maybe you can buy your old house back at a foreclosure auction. :D
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Shawn says that's not gonna happen when adjusted to and normalized to the 1990 market...just so you know.
 
rockcity said:
Sell sell sell.

Rent for a couple years, then buy when the market crashes again. Maybe you can buy your old house back at a foreclosure auction. :D
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Problem is the land, Papaw always said that’s one thing they ain’t making any more of. We have talked about selling and moving 45 minutes west into East Tennessee though.
 
obullfish said:
And we both know that’s the stupidest fucking think he’s said this week.
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Dude...you're my f*cking spirit human. Little birdie told me CTB was having a g2g up in corolla/duck this weekend. I'm gonna be in Nags Head, you gonna be out that way?
 
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