Housing market trash

There are always peaks and valleys in the housing market. Some peaks and valleys are more one year than others. They will correct themselves at some point to some degree. It’s no different than the stock market. Generally, it increases, but there are highs and lows. Right now we are on a high. To what degree and for how long, nobody really knows but it’s trending for longer than one would typically expect due to reasons already discussed in this thread. How the market corrects itself and to what degree remains to be determined.
 
UTfball68 said:
Dude...you're my f*cking spirit human. Little birdie told me CTB was having a g2g up in corolla/duck this weekend. I'm gonna be in Nags Head, you gonna be out that way?
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No not going to make it. That’s a haul from the house for just a weekend. We’ll get up sometime soon though I hope.
 
I think there is a micro v macro element here that is being missed by some as well.

Yes housing prices are up across the board. (macro)
And demand is soaring in our area (micro)

You can still buy $10k houses in Detroit and parts of Cleveland.
But the $40k houses of Memphis slums from 2 years ago are now pulling $125-$150k.

This bubble will pop when investors pull their money out of those markets and they realize no one wants to buy those homes because there arent jobs there. Unless the .gov just keeps financing the existence through UBI or some other such bullshit.

In contrast in the hot SE markets, demand hasnt even peaked yet. So with supply constrained and demand INCREASING no way we see a MAJOR pullback in the SE in the next 5 years - I dont think.
I think this is the new norm. Its a moment in time we will all look back on, unless....

Unless...
And this is morbid. But unless we have a true catastrophe. A population downward inflection point. A real pandemic that makes COVID 19 look laughable. A MAJOR war. An invasion on US soil. In which case then dolalr values dont matter and they get reset to the new norm then anyway.

Or maybe Rapture. Then none of this matters.

I dont think this is sustainable. But I dont see how it changes either.
 
UTfball68 said:
I just wanna know who to blame...Dubya for being an idiot, Obama for being a democrat, Trump for his mean tweets and orange or Biden for being incoherent?
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If you want to lay the blame at one set of feet, I'd suggest Alan Greenspan.
"Easy money" has consequences.

But I like low interest rates as much as anyone
 
Ron said:
I think there is a micro v macro element here that is being missed by some as well.

Yes housing prices are up across the board. (macro)
And demand is soaring in our area (micro)

You can still buy $10k houses in Detroit and parts of Cleveland.
But the $40k houses of Memphis slums from 2 years ago are now pulling $125-$150k.

This bubble will pop when investors pull their money out of those markets and they realize no one wants to buy those homes because there arent jobs there. Unless the .gov just keeps financing the existence through UBI or some other such bullshit.
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But the other element is inflation. A $300k house SHOULD COST $500k IF there is 60% inflation. I would argue that we are working on achieving that pretty damn hard right now. (becuz teh Kovidz). So when you look at institutional investing and purchasing, combined with inflation, prices MUST go up to achieve returns that meet or exceed inflation. I've heard you can make as much as 38% APR investing in the housing market. That's 90% APR in 2 years. AKA barely outpacing sales price increases.
 
paradisePWoffrd said:
I see many of those things happening, except the salary increase. I am for sure hoping mine will start to catch up with the inflation.
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This is the thing people should be worrying about for themselves.
How long will it take your income to catch up to inflation? What are you doing to ensure yo uat least make 5% or (wtfever it turns out to be) by Jan 1 to ensure you're not LOSING money?
This is where it can suck for folks in public sector/non-revenue-generating careers where salaries are set according to a table and tenure (ahem, teachers, the schlub at the DMV that hates you as much as you hate them).
It means we all have to be aggressive, and particularly those folks, in other financial areas to make up for it.
 
UTfball68 said:
Shawn says that's not gonna happen when adjusted to and normalized to the 1990 market...just so you know.
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Nobody has provided any evidence to the contrary.
 
shawn said:
Nobody has provided any evidence to the contrary.
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That SEC disclaimer "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" seems pretty fitting here.
 
jeepinmatt said:
manipulated interest rates to depreciate the national debt
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FIFY


jeepinmatt said:
He is in the Raleigh market. Look at the last bubble for Charlotte and Raleigh prices. I have no idea what the numbers are
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This. It was mostly concentrated in certain markets (Las Vegas) and at certain price points (>4500sf)
 
shawn said:
FIFY



This. It was mostly concentrated in certain markets (Las Vegas) and at certain price points (>4500sf)
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ehhh. I agree with your point but Id diverge here.
In the mortgage bailout crash...80% of the country saw major pullbacks.
Arizona say 70% devaluations. Florida saw 50+%devaluations. Georgia, Bama, Virgnia were all hit hard.
 
jeepinmatt said:
That SEC disclaimer "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" seems pretty fitting here.
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I'm just shocked that it takes this degree of explanation to get through to a "finance" guy. Shoulda started with a spreadsheet, I guess...
 
Ron said:
ehhh. I agree with your point but Id diverge here.
In the mortgage bailout crash...80% of the country saw major pullbacks.
Arizona say 70% devaluations. Florida saw 50+%devaluations. Georgia, Bama, Virgnia were all hit hard.
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It didn't exist in Raleigh, except as noted, and as a general suppression of liquidity and demand.

Also, mentioning markets that I didn't specifically include doesn't constitute disagreement. :flipoff2:
 
shawn said:
I'm just shocked that it takes this degree of explanation to get through to a "finance" guy. Shoulda started with a spreadsheet, I guess...
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Meh...preznit/COO now...as it turns out, I’m pretty good at predictions and making money.
 
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UTfball68 said:
My neighbor across the street just listed their house yesterday for $100k more than what they paid for it a year ago. They're not that far from $500k and our valuations are similar. If they can get their number, my wife might be eating crow. And all of this is mind-bogglingly insane to me to even be discussing, because we just bought the house 4 years ago, and I can easily get a 35% return on it and there seems to be some belief 60% return isn't out of the realm of possibility. No wonder some of you guys like investing in real estate.
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Neighbors house sold for about 10% more than asking price. They had about a dozen offers, asked for a highest and best offer from the top 3…and just like that, my property value went up again. My in laws are doing some house swapping and lot sub-dividing…the wife is kinda considering jumping in on the mix.
 
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Geebus…this is the place my sister rents. House was built in 1900, looks like nothing has been repaired in it since then. Essentially a tear down, in my opinion. 3-4 years ago it was listed FSBO at $80k, shortly after they moved in…my BIL offered $60k and was turned down. It certainly hasn’t gotten any better. 1 of the two bathrooms has zero water running to it, and the floor is completely rotted…but sure, this price makes sense…

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UTfball68 said:
Geebus…this is the place my sister rents. House was built in 1900, looks like nothing has been repaired in it since then. Essentially a tear down, in my opinion. 3-4 years ago it was listed FSBO at $80k, shortly after they moved in…my BIL offered $60k and was turned down. It certainly hasn’t gotten any better. 1 of the two bathrooms has zero water running to it, and the floor is completely rotted…but sure, this price makes sense…

View attachment 349762
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In Charlotte that would be $350-400k
 
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