Lumber prices and alternatives

Will Carter said:
My chart is looking better. What do you know this week?

I can play with one contract. It uses up alot of margin to hold lumber.
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The trend continues to be upward. I am buying all I can right now in order to be ahead of the curve.
I'm really conservative with how I spend our money if that tells you anything.
 
Will Carter said:
Need a pull back with some volume then I'll be in the lumber business too @Jody Treadway . Maybe next week.
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I am getting emails from our treaters to stock up now. Looking at my newest price sheet I just got this morning, dimensional lumber increased 25-35 dollars per 1000 BF this week. I think we found the bottom and are creeping up at this point.
 
Jody Treadway said:
I am getting emails from our treaters to stock up now. Looking at my newest price sheet I just got this morning, dimensional lumber increased 25-35 dollars per 1000 BF this week. I think we found the bottom and are creeping up at this point.
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Are the treaters kind of manipulating the market by saying that? They are saying that, so everybody is going to jump on it now, which basically drives prices up again due to another shortage? Kind of like when there is a run on gas?
 
DSM Turbos said:
Are the treaters kind of manipulating the market by saying that? They are saying that, so everybody is going to jump on it now, which basically drives prices up again due to another shortage? Kind of like when there is a run on gas?
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Not really. Treaters are "middle men" like everyone aside from the actual mills. They buy from (the cheapest) mill, treat and ship. The 2 primary treaters I buy from are really good about keeping me up to date on market trends. If they know there's a price increase looming, they will tell me on Thursday ahead of Friday's price sheet. They have also said to send on my PO on Friday instead of Thursday before. We pay each invoice within discount terms, so they tend to take good care of us.
 
Jody Treadway said:
Not really. Treaters are "middle men" like everyone aside from the actual mills. They buy from (the cheapest) mill, treat and ship. The 2 primary treaters I buy from are really good about keeping me up to date on market trends. If they know there's a price increase looming, they will tell me on Thursday ahead of Friday's price sheet. They have also said to send on my PO on Friday instead of Thursday before. We pay each invoice within discount terms, so they tend to take good care of us.
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So the pricing sheet that comes out, is that from the treaters or the mills? Sounds like from the treaters but based on what the mills are telling them the cost will be to them?

Really interesting business with how that all flows.
 
DSM Turbos said:
So the pricing sheet that comes out, is that from the treaters or the mills? Sounds like from the treaters but based on what the mills are telling them the cost will be to them?

Really interesting business with how that all flows.
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I get price sheets from my treaters every Friday morning. They get them earlier in the week from the mills and adjust pricing accordingly. Generally speaking, the big players in lumber use Random Lengths as a guide for cost of materials and also market trends in different regions.
 
Will Carter said:
Not yet...

Hell it might go short. If it doesn't hold $600 this week it'll probably ride to $450.

I'm not shorting it...but somebody might...
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we've seen price increases the last 2 weeks on dimensional lumber. As it usually does, treated follows untreated in price changes by 2 weeks.
 
Jody Treadway said:
Well,:poop:
View attachment 377975
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Don't worry buddy, you're not the only schmuck on the board! I locked in 4 loads of soybean oil back in April for record high prices because I was afraid of tight supply on the spot .market like the last two summers. Prices dropped considerably when commodities shit the bed a month or so back. Cost me $30k over what I would have paid if I had just rode the summer out buying spot loads. I'm basically the next Warren Buffett
 
awheelterd said:
Don't worry buddy, you're not the only schmuck on the board! I locked in 4 loads of soybean oil back in April for record high prices because I was afraid of tight supply on the spot .market like the last two summers. Prices dropped considerably when commodities shit the bed a month or so back. Cost me $30k over what I would have paid if I had just rode the summer out buying spot loads. I'm basically the next Warren Buffett
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Our saving grace is we keep a limited on hand inventory and turn over what we have quickly. Huge yards would be taking a big hit in the current market.
 
ghost said:
Let me know when it's time to go buy what I need to fix our stairs and build a solar kiln. I'll need pressure treated. ;)
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You may as well do it whenever you have the time. You're not going to save or overspend much at all for a smallish project like that.
 
drkelly said:

Lumber futures prices are down 62% amid a 'Great Reset'—here’s when DIYers can expect the best deals | Fortune

Lumber prices have been volatile since the pandemic began. The latest dip in lumber futures may be an opportunity for people seeking deals in stores.
fortune.com
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Noteworthy - [in @shawn voice] if "true" inflation has made your dollar worth 10% less than it was just say 18 months ago, you should never ever expect wood to be the same price it was. "normal" is now at least 10% more.
Chart says Its still 2x what it was at the lowest (100% increase) but looks to be maybe 60% over the predicted mean prior to insanity, which is not massively over inflation.
 
Will Carter said:
Not yet...

Hell it might go short. If it doesn't hold $600 this week it'll probably ride to $450.

I'm not shorting it...but somebody might...
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Wish I had enough cash to run the lumber contract on that idea. But it wasn’t my setup.
Hit me up before the next buy @Jody Treadway

awheelterd said:
Don't worry buddy, you're not the only schmuck on the board! I locked in 4 loads of soybean oil back in April for record high prices because I was afraid of tight supply on the spot .market like the last two summers. Prices dropped considerably when commodities shit the bed a month or so back. Cost me $30k over what I would have paid if I had just rode the summer out buying spot loads. I'm basically the next Warren Buffett
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Hey I sold some loads of soybean oil contracts on the fall the last couple months. Appreciate your business.
 
Looks like futures continue to slide since this was last updated

@Jody Treadway what are you seeing (i.e., when do you plan to start that shop build)?
 
rcalexander105 said:
Looks like futures continue to slide since this was last updated

@Jody Treadway what are you seeing (i.e., when do you plan to start that shop build)?
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Prices have been steadily dropping for a while. This includes panels as well as dimensional lumber.
The rising interest rates have definitely slowed residential construction down. Commercial still going strong. In fact, we're shipping to 4 new Publix shopping centers this week.

I'll start my shop build when labor costs drop. The material cost has never been an issue for me (obvious reasons) but the high cost of labor is a deal-breaker currently.
 
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