Lumber prices and alternatives

Lumber went up last Friday am as well a big jump on wide dimensional lumber this morning. We are expecting a big jump in prices effective Friday am.
I have been encouraging multiple customers to get purchase orders in ahead of time so I can lock in their costs.
It's about to get real...
 
Jody Treadway said:
Lumber went up last Friday am as well a big jump on wide dimensional lumber this morning. We are expecting a big jump in prices effective Friday am.
I have been encouraging multiple customers to get purchase orders in ahead of time so I can lock in their costs.
It's about to get real...
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We have loaded up heavy over the last four weeks in anticipation of this , its going to be ugly.
 
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Duane
 
Who wants bad news?
7/16 OSB is now over $50 per sheet wholesale. The box stores have old stock on hand cheaper, but if I place an order today for 1 bundle or a truckload, I'm over $51 per sheet. EEEEEEEK!
Subflooring is climbing like mad. Dimensional lumber is expected to make another triple digit jump by end of week. Plywood mills in the region are off the market. Meaning what they're making is already sold and as a result, they aren't offering extra material.
For my customers who pre-ordered and are letting us invoice them and store it until they need it ( @No fries ), y'all made an excellent decision in doing so.
 
So
Jody Treadway said:
Who wants bad news?
7/16 OSB is now over $50 per sheet wholesale. The box stores have old stock on hand cheaper, but if I place an order today for 1 bundle or a truckload, I'm over $51 per sheet. EEEEEEEK!
Subflooring is climbing like mad. Dimensional lumber is expected to make another triple digit jump by end of week. Plywood mills in the region are off the market. Meaning what they're making is already sold and as a result, they aren't offering extra material.
For my customers who pre-ordered and are letting us invoice them and store it until they need it ( @No fries ), y'all made an excellent decision in doing so.
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Something has to give. And when it does, it's going to be very bad .
 
Bogleparsons said:
So


Something has to give. And when it does, it's going to be very bad .
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I get what you're saying, but I don't see anything giving. Demand is insane right now, like crazy insane. They can't make it quickly enough. It's been this way for the better part of a year and a half as far as supply/demand goes. There's been some up and down movement in costs sporadically. But here we are not even in the busy season yet and Advantech is nearly $90 a sheet, 2x4 #2 is nearly 1800/m and OSB is nearly $60 retail. It's crazy.
 
Loganwayne said:
except we are sitting on over 2 dozen large houses (1+ million) and several smallish commercial jobs. they all are waving money in our face to start and we cant due to lack of materials and man power.
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Send em my way. I don't know what I'm doing, but there's enough dollaz there I can get it close enough.
 
jeepinmatt said:
Send em my way. I don't know what I'm doing, but there's enough dollaz there I can get it close enough.
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ive got just the lady to send to you. Last time we were there she walked out in a two piece bikini and offered us cake... now that sounds nice until you realize shes in her upper 80s German and barely speaks English and doesnt have a pool or hot tub.
 
A friend of mine is a contractor and he's doing a roofing job. He picked up 60 sheets of 5/8 plywood roof sheathing to the tune of $4K
 
Loganwayne said:
ive got just the lady to send to you. Last time we were there she walked out in a two piece bikini and offered us cake... now that sounds nice until you realize shes in her upper 80s German and barely speaks English and doesnt have a pool or hot tub.
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you misspelled coke
 
Loganwayne said:
ive got just the lady to send to you. Last time we were there she walked out in a two piece bikini and offered us cake... now that sounds nice until you realize shes in her upper 80s German and barely speaks English and doesnt have a pool or hot tub.
Click to expand...
 
@Jody Treadway , I'm curious what your take is on lumber futures nose diving; when can i expect to see a difference in the cost of an upcoming deck package?
 
ecu88xj said:
@Jody Treadway , I'm curious what your take is on lumber futures nose diving; when can i expect to see a difference in the cost of an upcoming deck package?
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I read daily reports from investors and market analysts. It's all way over my head and pay grade especially since our inventory rotates faster than the market moves.
But with that said...I think we will see dimensional lumber drop another 15% or so by July. Panels are still in high demand and you can't make them as fast as lumber. So, I predict plywood/OSB will make a small correction and lumber around 15%.
But...as we approach hurricane season, homeowner repair/update season and the "busy" time in general, the mills won't forget that customers were willing to pay whatever it cost for the last 2 years.
This is specifically why we keep our business small and offer limited specialty goods. You can lose a metric poop-ton of money on commodity items like framing lumber, OSB and subfloor when the market drops.
 
I expect lumber prices to bounce here.
 
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