sammi_davis
Sawzall Surgeon
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2005
- Location
- Eden N.C.
You make it on the way up and hope that offsets the drop .I read daily reports from investors and market analysts. It's all way over my head and pay grade especially since our inventory rotates faster than the market moves.
But with that said...I think we will see dimensional lumber drop another 15% or so by July. Panels are still in high demand and you can't make them as fast as lumber. So, I predict plywood/OSB will make a small correction and lumber around 15%.
But...as we approach hurricane season, homeowner repair/update season and the "busy" time in general, the mills won't forget that customers were willing to pay whatever it cost for the last 2 years.
This is specifically why we keep our business small and offer limited specialty goods. You can lose a metric poop-ton of money on commodity items like framing lumber, OSB and subfloor when the market drops.
The lumber traders I deal with at Ace and Robbins are saying 20%down across the board by the end of the summer if the Hurricanes dont tear up much.
We curently have $1.3 million of lumber on the yard and most of it is already sold. This is one crazy business.