Automotive bubble....has it burst?

awheelterd said:
Even though new Tahoe's suburbans and yukons are 70k, the line at daycare is full of them. It's crazy. I honestly don't know how half those people afford the payments. I went to school with most of them and know what they all do for a living. Where they are finding an extra grand a month for a payment like that is impressive. I know most of them have got to be stretched tight as banjo strings
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I also recently looked at new Tahoes. $80,000 for one with the big engine. Nope.
 
thebrotherinlaw said:
I’d pay stupid money for a new 2004 Grand Cherokee built in 2024. Most comfortable vehicle we’ve ever owned.
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If you're willing to pay stupid money then buy an old one then pay a lot for a really good 3rd party warranty.
 
benXJ said:
well not lowering the price of a Limited Sequoia, but could make cheaper versions

I've often wondered in 2024, how cheap could a mid size SUV be made and meet the bare minimum gov't mandates?

Parts bin share every single thing from 15 years ago.....parts that are so cheap they are almost free....all the lights, bolts, nuts, switches, gauges, sensors, bearings....everything. Find the most common, cheapest oil filter and air filter and use that one.

And put all of it into a new, safe, has all the airbags and crumple zones, body shell. I sure don't care if my power window and lock switch is from 2001 or if my turn signals dance and flash funky.

I bet a 6 cylinder, 4wd, 6 speed auto, mid size SUV could be sold for $20k.
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You just basically defined AMC and we all see how that went. Americans are basic bitches who have to show up the Jones no matter the cost.
 
RatLabGuy said:
If you're willing to pay stupid money then buy an old one then pay a lot for a really good 3rd party warranty.
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But then it would have a warranty but still not be more reliable. Be better to replace anything rubber or plastic with that money.
 
RatLabGuy said:
If you're willing to pay stupid money then buy an old one then pay a lot for a really good 3rd party warranty.
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but thats the idea.....keep everything the same but update the roof and A pillars to meet crash regs. thats it. maybe smooth it out a bit more for aero/MPGs.

Think of how cheap parts would be if the were still using the same everything that was designed in 1999 for the WJ and build a 2024 WJ with all new parts...same P/Ns from 1999......the price per part would be stupid cheap. Its so expensive to engineer, design, find suppliers, retool, build new lines, hire new people, and keep track of all of it every 5 years for a new model. Someone has to pay for that.

now, obviously they will sell the cars at the highest price people will pay, regardless of how cheap they can make them. (see the current 4runner...15+ years now!)

but how cheap could a new midsize SUV be built and still be reliable (2004 WJs were pretty reliable) and meet current regs? is my random thought.

I bet they could be sold for $20k if a proper effort was made (i know, I dream)
 
You do realize you can’t buy a new side by side for $20k, right?

And it has no ntsa, no windshield heater, AC, radio etc…


You’ve lost touch with reality.

This is where @shawn used to rustle all the jimmies by saying those are 2018 dollars.

$20k in 99 = $38k in 2023z
You can buy a $38k suv today and it will be comparable to a $20k 99 suv
 
Ron said:
You do realize you can’t buy a new side by side for $20k, right?

And it has no ntsa, no windshield heater, AC, radio etc…


You’ve lost touch with reality.

This is where @shawn used to rustle all the jimmies by saying those are 2018 dollars.

$20k in 99 = $38k in 2023z
You can buy a $38k suv today and it will be comparable to a $20k 99 suv
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Only comment in touch with reality.
Base wage at the plant I work at is $25/h.

None of the electronics from 2004 are available and none of the engines would pass emissions, Our 2023 shit doesn't even pass emissions for 2024...
 
Bebop said:
Only comment in touch with reality.
Base wage at the plant I work at is $25/h.

None of the electronics from 2004 are available and none of the engines would pass emissions, Our 2023 shit doesn't even pass emissions for 2024...
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Can we discuss cafe standards?
Use those 1985 head lights though.

What do you mean they don’t blend and create an air dam..oh shit we will have to redesign the entire car and raise the roof profile 9” because physics?!??!

Ok let’s just redesign the headlight that’s cheaper
 
Ron said:
Can we discuss cafe standards?
Use those 1985 head lights though.

What do you mean they don’t blend and create an air dam..oh shit we will have to redesign the entire car and raise the roof profile 9” because physics?!??!

Ok let’s just redesign the headlight that’s cheaper
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Translated:
There's a reason why all cars now look like bubbles... and old parts wouldn't fit in them anywhere.
 
Noel said:
I have learned a lot of people get help… hard not to envy some peoples stuff. Then at some point they slip up and mention how their parents or in-laws pay for their child care/ after school. A lot of those folks magically only vacation with their parents and such. Hell I heard one buddy mention his in-laws always buy his wife new cars to keep the kids safe. I’d say it must be nice, but I take pride in doing for myself.
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I think you're right. I can think of a couple folks that are still getting low key help from their parents. I remember hearing someone not long ago saying that their inlaws covered daycare for them. That 1200/mo right there would finance a ltz burb.
 
Noel said:
I have learned a lot of people get help… hard not to envy some peoples stuff. Then at some point they slip up and mention how their parents or in-laws pay for their child care/ after school. A lot of those folks magically only vacation with their parents and such. Hell I heard one buddy mention his in-laws always buy his wife new cars to keep the kids safe. I’d say it must be nice, but I take pride in doing for myself.
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awheelterd said:
I think you're right. I can think of a couple folks that are still getting low key help from their parents. I remember hearing someone not long ago saying that their inlaws covered daycare for them. That 1200/mo right there would finance a ltz burb.
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I’ve got friend that has me questioning this. He’s a middle school teacher with a stay at home wife and five kids. They have a nice house, nice cars, and they’re always dressed to the nines. My wife and me are like how in the heck can they do that? He does have a small side hustle installing sprinklers, but that still doesn’t seem like it would close the gap. Makes me wonder if they’re getting some help from her parents.
 
ha. ya'll can twist and turn every single little word. no wonder nothing ever gets done. fascinating to see how people pick and choose what they want to hear and see.

it was a thought exercise.

and toyota making the 4.0 for 20 years seems to pass emissions fine?
 
Ron said:
$20k in 99 = $38k in 2023
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Around here, at least, it is not hard for 2 working adults to pull 300K a year down for their family.

Then also if you look at how much savings most folks have. 60% of adults say they live paycheck to paycheck, and 4 in 10 of them are considered high earners. I think there are plenty of people also who barely contribute to 401k and their future and just live for the current moment. If you don't care to save at all for the future, it is a lot easier to spend a shit ton of money.
 
DSM Turbos said:
Around here, at least, it is not hard for 2 working adults to pull 300K a year down for their family.
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Well shit, I need to find a different 2nd adult.
 
benXJ said:
ha. ya'll can twist and turn every single little word. no wonder nothing ever gets done. fascinating to see how people pick and choose what they want to hear and see.

it was a thought exercise.

and toyota making the 4.0 for 20 years seems to pass emissions fine?
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No - its not people twisting your words.

This is a common theme and tactic of yours. You make baseless assumptions then sprinkle a few random details in them. The conclusions are so detached from reality that anyone with experience running a business (or an R&D department in this case) instantly rolls their eyes and moves on. A few of us, foolishly try to engage and point out the grand canyon sized gaps of logic in your statements and use the specific example of the details you sprinkle in. Those, the things you mention, should be the easiest and best arguments for your position....before even getting into minutia. When they are easily discredited (the headlight example) it just illustrates the entire premise is based on fantasy in your mind.

It gets to be a repeat exercise with you. Not to be too personal but I remember the similar cycle when you were going to start your auto online search site. You did a market survey to ask what people wanted. People here universally told you - nah that aint it. And you shouted them down for weeks that you knew what everyone really wanted and had a better mouse trap. Cool.

At some point you are either the only singular sane person in every circle you ever enter, or...
 
justjeepin86 said:
I really don't think that can compare to cars and trucks though.
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Two separate conversations
1- The dollar is worth less
2- The product has increased features which cost more

The value of the dollar is the constant. The thought is if you froze in time a 99 Cherokee (or whatever) and the entire environment it was built in and warped it to 2023. That $20k is worth $38k today. Like for like no change. That's just what the dollar equivalent is.
Now you add in the improved gas mileage, nanny state back up cams, heated and cooled balls massaging seats, more horse torques and a few crumple zones and that $38 turns to $60k.

Said another way, a $60k auto purchase today is equivalent to a $33k purchase is '99. Same % of income (theoretically) and same adjusted value of purchase power
 
awheelterd said:
I think you're right. I can think of a couple folks that are still getting low key help from their parents. I remember hearing someone not long ago saying that their inlaws covered daycare for them. That 1200/mo right there would finance a ltz burb.
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Are you getting any sort of inheritance.
If you are, you are getting help from your folks too.
 
Bebop said:
Are you getting any sort of inheritance.
If you are, you are getting help from your folks too.
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No idea, they ain't dead yet.

We're actually getting reverse inheritance from my wife's side.... My mil is a financial liability 🤣

Don't get me wrong, I'm not hating on folks who's parents pick up some bills for them. I really don't care. It just help explain how very average folks (not @DSM Turbos neighbors) can swing $80,000 vehicles.
 
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benXJ said:
ha. ya'll can twist and turn every single little word. no wonder nothing ever gets done. fascinating to see how people pick and choose what they want to hear and see.

it was a thought exercise.

and toyota making the 4.0 for 20 years seems to pass emissions fine?
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Toyota is litterally discontinuing the 4.0 at this moment...
 
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