Automotive bubble....has it burst?

NickMaul said:
Car quality off of the assembly line these days seem so questionable as well. Certain jeep models seem like a total disaster. My next car purchase will likely be a 5-8 year old Toyota Sequoia
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Last week I was wondering what a new Sequoia cost, so I looked on the website. $80,000 :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: That is a big nope.
 
drkelly said:
Last week I was wondering what a new Sequoia cost, so I looked on the website. $80,000 :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: That is a big nope.
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This is my thing as well, I bought a 2012 6.7 2500 longhorn for 35k in 2013. To buy the same truck today I would have to get a second mortgage, so I guess just keep driving it until I die. There has to be a limit on what the market will take.
 
braxton357 said:
This is my thing as well, I bought a 2012 6.7 2500 longhorn for 35k in 2013. To buy the same truck today I would have to get a second mortgage, so I guess just keep driving it until I die. There has to be a limit on what the market will take.
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Agreed on a limit. I thought we would get there soon but it seems to have settled to where it is with no reset in sight.
 
It’ll be used cars for me until I check out. I can’t bring myself to pay the equivalent of a mortgage for an investment that depreciates by the mile/day. My current daily is an 05 Tacoma. I also have a 2000 F250 that is my dump run/backup truck. I’d love a new ride, I just like keeping my money better. I could sell some stuff and buy something outright, but then I’d be on the hunt again to replace the toys I sold.
 
Wes said:
It’ll be used cars for me until I check out. I can’t bring myself to pay the equivalent of a mortgage for an investment that depreciates by the mile/day. My current daily is an 05 Tacoma. I also have a 2000 F250 that is my dump run/backup truck. I’d love a new ride, I just like keeping my money better. I could sell some stuff and buy something outright, but then I’d be on the hunt again to replace the toys I sold.
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The only reason I bought new in 2022 I think it was. Is because the used 4 year old trucks were with in 5K of a new. Interest rates on new where much better and the payment wasn't that bad back then. My $50K truck is over $65K now I believe.
 
ghost said:
Agreed on a limit. I thought we would get there soon but it seems to have settled to where it is with no reset in sight.
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Well there is no real lasting consequences for massive credit card debt, walking away from loans, defaults, bankruptcy.....so why not spend until you die?!
 
benXJ said:
Well there is no real lasting consequences for massive credit card debt, walking away from loans, defaults, bankruptcy.....so why not spend until you die?!
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For some. I've always tried to pay my debts. But that isn't what we are talking about here. We are talking about the high prices of vehicles and when will it reset.
 
Starting in 2026 new cars will be required to passively detect if you might be impaired. All that tech doesn't come free.
 
shawn said:
Starting in 2026 new cars will be required to passively detect if you might be impaired. All that tech doesn't come free.
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Right now that is only proposed, not definite.

But... lets be honest that means it is coming, and is complete horseshit
 
benXJ said:
its all tied together

8 year car loans
40 year mortages
moving CC debt from one card to the other
walk away from the car note when things go south.....no one cares

people keep paying the high prices for just about everything, so why will prices come down?
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Add on to this another serious problem.

A manufacturer simply can not reduce prices year over year. if a manufacturer lowers a price that is a massive indicator to wall street that the business is unhealthy and will trigger a run on the stock.

A free falling stock price costs CEOs their job.

It wont happen. The toothpaste will never go back in the tube.
Now will we see a day where Manufacturers are discounting 25-40% off sticker - just to keep the sticker price up? Possible. But the days of a $50k window sticker are gone, unfortunately.
 
well not lowering the price of a Limited Sequoia, but could make cheaper versions

I've often wondered in 2024, how cheap could a mid size SUV be made and meet the bare minimum gov't mandates?

Parts bin share every single thing from 15 years ago.....parts that are so cheap they are almost free....all the lights, bolts, nuts, switches, gauges, sensors, bearings....everything. Find the most common, cheapest oil filter and air filter and use that one.

And put all of it into a new, safe, has all the airbags and crumple zones, body shell. I sure don't care if my power window and lock switch is from 2001 or if my turn signals dance and flash funky.

I bet a 6 cylinder, 4wd, 6 speed auto, mid size SUV could be sold for $20k.
 
benXJ said:
well not lowering the price of a Limited Sequoia, but could make cheaper versions

I've often wondered in 2024, how cheap could a mid size SUV be made and meet the bare minimum gov't mandates?

Parts bin share every single thing from 15 years ago.....parts that are so cheap they are almost free....all the lights, bolts, nuts, switches, gauges, sensors, bearings....everything. Find the most common, cheapest oil filter and air filter and use that one.

And put all of it into a new, safe, has all the airbags and crumple zones, body shell. I sure don't care if my power window and lock switch is from 2001 or if my turn signals dance and flash funky.

I bet a 6 cylinder, 4wd, 6 speed auto, mid size SUV could be sold for $20k.
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You think Kia isn't already doing this?

I mean for Christ's sake they skipped on putting immobilizer chips into the ignition bc it wasn't federally mandated.
There is very little room for profit margins already on typical cars (trucks are another story). They are already cutting corners anywhere and everywhere possible, down to plastic screws instead of metal.
 
No...they aren't

They have $1000 each LED flashback twinkle headlights, that are unique to each model
screens everywhere

for example, basically take all the part numbers from a 1998 Grand Cherokee and put it into a new body...you get the idea. $12 rectagle headlights and the like. taillight assembly for $20 from parts that were used to build millions of units.....pennies per piece.

all the time, energy, resources and people to talk about, design, draft, build, and keep track of 2500 new parts for a new model is not cheap. Doesn't matter if its plastic or metal.

my point is, the parts already exist, or could be made for pennies. Use a $5 oil filter off the shelf instead of creating a new size, part number, and/or specifications. This times 1000. It adds up.
it would be a fun exercise....even if they don't actually build it.
 
Even though new Tahoe's suburbans and yukons are 70k, the line at daycare is full of them. It's crazy. I honestly don't know how half those people afford the payments. I went to school with most of them and know what they all do for a living. Where they are finding an extra grand a month for a payment like that is impressive. I know most of them have got to be stretched tight as banjo strings
 
benXJ said:
No...they aren't

They have $1000 each LED flashback twinkle headlights, that are unique to each model
screens everywhere

for example, basically take all the part numbers from a 1998 Grand Cherokee and put it into a new body...you get the idea. $12 rectagle headlights and the like. taillight assembly for $20 from parts that were used to build millions of units.....pennies per piece.

all the time, energy, resources and people to talk about, design, draft, build, and keep track of 2500 new parts for a new model is not cheap. Doesn't matter if its plastic or metal.

my point is, the parts already exist, or could be made for pennies. Use a $5 oil filter off the shelf instead of creating a new size, part number, and/or specifications. This times 1000. It adds up.
it would be a fun exercise....even if they don't actually build it.
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How would you do that and not make a car that looks like an older model?
And you now have to spend the time designing the car so that all of those parts that were designed for other vehicle fit together in yours. Your R&D time will be just as much if not higher.
Have you ever tried to make a new thing thing constrained by an existing parts base? It isn't easy.

Plus those headlights suck ballz compared to what everyone expects today based on LEDs. Different oil filter bc the current engine has different flow requirements.

I seem to recall this was Elio Motors' plan, how they were going to get that 3-wheeled "motorcycle" down to the sub $8k mark.
How are they doing?
 
benXJ said:
for example, basically take all the part numbers from a 1998 Grand Cherokee and put it into a new body...you get the idea. $12 rectagle headlights and the like. taillight assembly for $20 from parts that were used to build millions of units.....pennies per piece.
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Most of that shit is illegal on new cars built today.
 
benXJ said:
its all tied together

8 year car loans
40 year mortages
moving CC debt from one card to the other
walk away from the car note when things go south.....no one cares

people keep paying the high prices for just about everything, so why will prices come down?
Click to expand...

Speaking of such... my MIL was completely upside down in a 2015 Hyundai Elantra she purchased from CarMax. When she died, the payments stopped. We contacted CarMax multiple times to have them come get the car. It sat outside my BILs house with the keys in it for 6 months. I dont know where the car is now, but its been a yr and they havent called or tried to get the car.
 
RatLabGuy said:
How would you do that and not make a car that looks like an older model?
And you now have to spend the time designing the car so that all of those parts that were designed for other vehicle fit together in yours. Your R&D time will be just as much if not higher.
Have you ever tried to make a new thing thing constrained by an existing parts base? It isn't easy.

Plus those headlights suck ballz compared to what everyone expects today based on LEDs. Different oil filter bc the current engine has different flow requirements.

I seem to recall this was Elio Motors' plan, how they were going to get that 3-wheeled "motorcycle" down to the sub $8k mark.
How are they doing?
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Canyonero
 
RatLabGuy said:
How would you do that and not make a car that looks like an older model?
And you now have to spend the time designing the car so that all of those parts that were designed for other vehicle fit together in yours. Your R&D time will be just as much if not higher.
Have you ever tried to make a new thing thing constrained by an existing parts base? It isn't easy.

Plus those headlights suck ballz compared to what everyone expects today based on LEDs. Different oil filter bc the current engine has different flow requirements.

I seem to recall this was Elio Motors' plan, how they were going to get that 3-wheeled "motorcycle" down to the sub $8k mark.
How are they doing?
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Dang you can take a comment and read it the complete opposite of everyone else.

How to not make it look old ...I said 'in a new body'
One tha would meet current crash standards.
So new, modern look

The oil filter comment was an example of low hanging fruit. We need 45 different sizes of oil filters? All that cant be cheap or efficient for the manufacturer or the car company.

Sure, there is some RD cost in any new model, but when designing an axle tube, don't make it some weird size so you end up having to spec an entire new bearing. Size it to fit the cheapest (but good) bearing already in the market. Things like that, times 1000.

The new F150 lightning needed a unique grill and LED infused tailgate? Sure didn't, but it does and it adds to the cost.

A $10 proven and cheap window switch panel from 2001 is not illegal.

Things like that for an entire new car would be interesting. As a study.

Elios died due to lots of reasons, the main one being some states were gonna require a helmet for use....a no go and bad press.
 
awheelterd said:
Even though new Tahoe's suburbans and yukons are 70k, the line at daycare is full of them. It's crazy. I honestly don't know how half those people afford the payments. I went to school with most of them and know what they all do for a living. Where they are finding an extra grand a month for a payment like that is impressive. I know most of them have got to be stretched tight as banjo strings
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I have learned a lot of people get help… hard not to envy some peoples stuff. Then at some point they slip up and mention how their parents or in-laws pay for their child care/ after school. A lot of those folks magically only vacation with their parents and such. Hell I heard one buddy mention his in-laws always buy his wife new cars to keep the kids safe. I’d say it must be nice, but I take pride in doing for myself.
 
Ron said:
Add on to this another serious problem.

A manufacturer simply can not reduce prices year over year. if a manufacturer lowers a price that is a massive indicator to wall street that the business is unhealthy and will trigger a run on the stock.

A free falling stock price costs CEOs their job.

It wont happen. The toothpaste will never go back in the tube.
Now will we see a day where Manufacturers are discounting 25-40% off sticker - just to keep the sticker price up? Possible. But the days of a $50k window sticker are gone, unfortunately.
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I hate this is so right. I also think it is just another card in the deck building the bridge to failure.


Deep down I wanna start pulling cards in an epic game of world Jenga. The darkest parts of my being wants to pour gas on it and light a smoke to really enjoy the moment.
 
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