Loganwayne
#BTL
- Joined
- Feb 15, 2013
- Location
- Clyde, North Carolina
This was in my email this morning
Today’s Overall Comments from LMC buying Group:
Frustration, fatigue, and more frustration is probably a good way to summarize the start to this week for many. Shipping delays of existing orders and limited new product availability left many buyers concerned for the months ahead. While fatigue set in due to last week’s huge price jumps in panels, specifically Western Fir, buyers still searched for product needs for the months ahead.
While Random Lengths noted that there is a feeling the market could be topping out, and while it may be true on the Lumber side (specifically pine), it’s hard to see that in the world of Panels. The reason for this is because demand still outpaces supply and in general the lack of OSB product in the near term.
Availability of product continues to be a concern and will be a major factor as we head into Summer. There is no answer other than to plan ahead and continue to cover into the summer months if you know you’ll need it.
OSB availability continues to be a factor and does not appear to be improving in the near term, with such limited supply we will continue to see the Plywood market firm to higher for the foreseeable future. Substituting OSB coverage for Plywood has been the norm and is now severely impacting the Plywood market as almost all mills have been 5-8 week order files.
Mills continue to battle production delays. Mill down time could cause material to be 1-2 weeks later than expected. Make sure you continue to have wood in the pipeline to cover your needs into June, especially in Western Fir. If you know you will need it, it’s best to make sure it’s covered.
Southern Pine:
Pine remained steady to start the week as most mills remained OTM or showed very limited volumes when available. Those who showed any open market production quoted at higher levels then where print is reporting - those offerings were quickly purchased. Secondary’s offered loads for June/July shipment.
Mid-week levels jumped $30/m on sheathing and gained $40-50/m on U/L. We expect a similar increase Friday afternoon.
Lead times at mills ranged from the week of 5/31 into late June or early July for those who were able to quote. Quicker lead times yielded a higher premium.
Pine Concrete form panels, sanded and siding all remain extremely limited.
Continue to keep material on order and look to get needs covered for June.
Western:
Western Plywood remained active to start the week as some mills came back on the market with very limited availability. After last week’s huge price gains, buyers reluctantly placed orders knowing they’d need the wood and had little alternative then to just pay the price. Prices covered a wide range to start but most sales occurred roughly around print levels or slightly higher. Many were left frustrated by the lack of availability in CDX’s and UL.
Mid-week levels moved between $40-60/m higher. Underlayment gained $65. We expect a similar increase Friday afternoon as mills continue to ride the momentum.
Lead times are mostly week of 6/21 or beyond.
Western concrete form panels, sanded and siding all remain extremely limited.
Outlook:
Similar to recent weeks, our recommendation is to cover needs for June & July at this point, especially in Western Fir where almost all mills are quoting mid-June lead times. Expect shipping delays.
As noted above- Concrete forming panels, sanded, sidings remain very difficult to source.
Our 45-60 day outlook: We expect prices to continue move higher over the next few weeks and remain firm into the Summer months. It’s hard to imagine a price correction downward in early Q3 as long as building demand remains strong as product supply is not able to keep up..
At this point in time, Demand does not appear to be easing in the foreseeable future, expect panel price ranges to remain historically high.
LOGISTICS NOTE à
It is no secret at this point that trucking is absolutely horrible in our industry right now. For every 100-115 loads available, there is one truck to ship. This is no longer a region by region issue, but a national issue. Mills in both the South and in the West have noted they have about a 1-2 week backlog of orders that are sitting ready and the mill and there aren’t enough trucks on the road to ship them. Offering to pay a carrier more to make one load a priority over another has not worked. Some lanes are worse than others and experiencing up to 3 week delays. Our logistics staff, the mills and their logistics teams, and all the traders continue and will continue to make our best efforts to ship product in a timely manner, but it is also a reality we are subject to a trucking shortage we have not seen before. We know it is frustrating, we are all frustrated but this will hopefully improve over time.
Today’s Overall Comments from LMC buying Group:
Frustration, fatigue, and more frustration is probably a good way to summarize the start to this week for many. Shipping delays of existing orders and limited new product availability left many buyers concerned for the months ahead. While fatigue set in due to last week’s huge price jumps in panels, specifically Western Fir, buyers still searched for product needs for the months ahead.
While Random Lengths noted that there is a feeling the market could be topping out, and while it may be true on the Lumber side (specifically pine), it’s hard to see that in the world of Panels. The reason for this is because demand still outpaces supply and in general the lack of OSB product in the near term.
Availability of product continues to be a concern and will be a major factor as we head into Summer. There is no answer other than to plan ahead and continue to cover into the summer months if you know you’ll need it.
OSB availability continues to be a factor and does not appear to be improving in the near term, with such limited supply we will continue to see the Plywood market firm to higher for the foreseeable future. Substituting OSB coverage for Plywood has been the norm and is now severely impacting the Plywood market as almost all mills have been 5-8 week order files.
Mills continue to battle production delays. Mill down time could cause material to be 1-2 weeks later than expected. Make sure you continue to have wood in the pipeline to cover your needs into June, especially in Western Fir. If you know you will need it, it’s best to make sure it’s covered.
Southern Pine:
Pine remained steady to start the week as most mills remained OTM or showed very limited volumes when available. Those who showed any open market production quoted at higher levels then where print is reporting - those offerings were quickly purchased. Secondary’s offered loads for June/July shipment.
Mid-week levels jumped $30/m on sheathing and gained $40-50/m on U/L. We expect a similar increase Friday afternoon.
Lead times at mills ranged from the week of 5/31 into late June or early July for those who were able to quote. Quicker lead times yielded a higher premium.
Pine Concrete form panels, sanded and siding all remain extremely limited.
Continue to keep material on order and look to get needs covered for June.
Western:
Western Plywood remained active to start the week as some mills came back on the market with very limited availability. After last week’s huge price gains, buyers reluctantly placed orders knowing they’d need the wood and had little alternative then to just pay the price. Prices covered a wide range to start but most sales occurred roughly around print levels or slightly higher. Many were left frustrated by the lack of availability in CDX’s and UL.
Mid-week levels moved between $40-60/m higher. Underlayment gained $65. We expect a similar increase Friday afternoon as mills continue to ride the momentum.
Lead times are mostly week of 6/21 or beyond.
Western concrete form panels, sanded and siding all remain extremely limited.
Outlook:
Similar to recent weeks, our recommendation is to cover needs for June & July at this point, especially in Western Fir where almost all mills are quoting mid-June lead times. Expect shipping delays.
As noted above- Concrete forming panels, sanded, sidings remain very difficult to source.
Our 45-60 day outlook: We expect prices to continue move higher over the next few weeks and remain firm into the Summer months. It’s hard to imagine a price correction downward in early Q3 as long as building demand remains strong as product supply is not able to keep up..
At this point in time, Demand does not appear to be easing in the foreseeable future, expect panel price ranges to remain historically high.
LOGISTICS NOTE à
It is no secret at this point that trucking is absolutely horrible in our industry right now. For every 100-115 loads available, there is one truck to ship. This is no longer a region by region issue, but a national issue. Mills in both the South and in the West have noted they have about a 1-2 week backlog of orders that are sitting ready and the mill and there aren’t enough trucks on the road to ship them. Offering to pay a carrier more to make one load a priority over another has not worked. Some lanes are worse than others and experiencing up to 3 week delays. Our logistics staff, the mills and their logistics teams, and all the traders continue and will continue to make our best efforts to ship product in a timely manner, but it is also a reality we are subject to a trucking shortage we have not seen before. We know it is frustrating, we are all frustrated but this will hopefully improve over time.
