Lumber prices and alternatives

That is NOT the news I was hoping to see when this thread was bumped.

Duane
 
@Jody Treadway and others in the construction business. What are your long term thoughts (1-3 years) on construction materials, or is that impossible to know?
 
Can't really say specifically but we're trying to build a house this year. We had a plan we liked picked out before material costs started going up so we were waiting on them to come back down, but now we might have to adjust our plan some or explore other options.

Duane
 
drkelly said:
@Jody Treadway and others in the construction business. What are your long term thoughts (1-3 years) on construction materials, or is that impossible to know?
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Its a D controlled white house.
Vertical construction will back off horizontal construction (ie public money) will increase.
Demand for building materials will decrease resulting in downward price pressure but increased regulations and expenss will keep prices up despite flat margins for manufacturers.

This is the meso cycle I have witnessed since 200 and what Id count on for the next 4 or (please God no) 8 years
 
Ron said:
Its a D controlled white house.
Vertical construction will back off horizontal construction (ie public money) will increase.
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This

My primary client is school systems. When we have a democrat, or even potential for a democrat in office all vertical construction ceases. Few companies EVER make the choice to "expand" with a dem in office. But By golly a school bond will pass when there's no other spending in the world. I'm in a mad rush to finish 3 high schools and a middle school before February so they can be bid by no later than may, so they can be occupied Aug 2022.
 
Ron said:
Its a D controlled white house.
Vertical construction will back off horizontal construction (ie public money) will increase.
Demand for building materials will decrease resulting in downward price pressure but increased regulations and expenss will keep prices up despite flat margins for manufacturers.

This is the meso cycle I have witnessed since 200 and what Id count on for the next 4 or (please God no) 8 years
Click to expand...

CasterTroy said:
This

My primary client is school systems. When we have a democrat, or even potential for a democrat in office all vertical construction ceases. Few companies EVER make the choice to "expand" with a dem in office. But By golly a school bond will pass when there's no other spending in the world. I'm in a mad rush to finish 3 high schools and a middle school before February so they can be bid by no later than may, so they can be occupied Aug 2022.
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I see this in trucking sort of.... Generally things tighten up. Less freight is moved and prices seem to fall.... I'm not looking forward to the next 4 years.
 
In speaking with industry insiders and commodity traders, there won't be a price drop until MAYBE start of 2nd quarter. But then, we will be entering the spring busy season. So a slowdown is unlikely in that regard.
But just as Ron and Troy said, when a D is in office, vertical construction tends to slow. With so much speculation about that DJT is or isn't doing as well as if Biden activates some sort of lockdown, there really isn't any idea what construction will do.
We, like many other yards, are buying and selling literally as fast as we can inventory. I'm doing nothing differently until I see a prolonged trend either way.
 
I bought several sheets of Advantech 23/32 OSB the week of Christmas and they were $50 each.
Thank God I didn't needs a ton of them.

What I find really interesting is that Dricore 2x2 tiles, which are basically just OSB with plastic glued to them, have not changed in price much.
Originally it was cheaper for me to buy Delta FL plastic underlayment in sheets and then do full sheathing panels on top. Now the Dricore is way cheaper by the sq ft.

I'm assuming this is b/c the market for Dricore is just tiny in comparison to sheathing, and teh demand hasn't fluctuated as much. But I'd think that the material cost on teh back end would have driven it up.
 
RatLabGuy said:
But I'd think that the material cost on teh back end would have driven it up.
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You're not buying wood chips. You're buying the results of a process stream.
 
RatLabGuy said:
I bought several sheets of Advantech 23/32 OSB the week of Christmas and they were $50 each.
Thank God I didn't needs a ton of them.

What I find really interesting is that Dricore 2x2 tiles, which are basically just OSB with plastic glued to them, have not changed in price much.
Originally it was cheaper for me to buy Delta FL plastic underlayment in sheets and then do full sheathing panels on top. Now the Dricore is way cheaper by the sq ft.

I'm assuming this is b/c the market for Dricore is just tiny in comparison to sheathing, and teh demand hasn't fluctuated as much. But I'd think that the material cost on teh back end would have driven it up.
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That Advantec is only 20% markup over wholesale. For the sake of what crap is costing
2x4 #2 is over 1225/m wholesale. In fact if I call my panel sales rep in the Georgia Pacific high rise in downtown Atlanta and order a full TT of 7/16 OSB, I'm looking at $26 each and a laughable lead time.
As a result, 1/2" sheathing plywood (CDX) is nearly impossible to find. In fact, it's trading higher cost than 5/8 and is within a quarter of 3/4.
Pretty much, buy it if you need it. You may not find it again before long.
 
Same with other products, Steel is increasing 10% each month since December and will continue into April with increases. Insulation went up, Drywall too. My suppliers are on a loose allocation. Can't get Chinese rolled stock like they used too, having to resort to US steel which is high and can't meet the demand. Custom orders used to be available in 5 working days now we are looking at 3-4 weeks. My supplier also ran out of insulation, those orders are out 4 weeks on a truck I was told. As Jody said MAYBE end of 2nd quarter we will see prices flatten out but that remains to be seen.
 
I'm curious if @Jody Treadway or anybody else in the supply business has any kind of crystal ball insight into what this market should be like in the mid to far term, 6+ months out.

I was about ready to order a steel barn building kit, had quotes from a handful or suppliers. One in particular keeping pinging me every 2 weeks "Heads up, our price is going up 12% on this date". Today got another, as of March 1st, another 15% hike.
Says in the last 6 months their price has had to rise 47%.

Now its already at the point of really pushing my budget. Other than desire, I'm not it any big hurry, so I'm now havin gto face the decision of pulling teh trigger ASAP vs just committing to wait until Fall or whatever.
 
RatLabGuy said:
I'm curious if @Jody Treadway or anybody else in the supply business has any kind of crystal ball insight into what this market should be like in the mid to far term, 6+ months out.

I was about ready to order a steel barn building kit, had quotes from a handful or suppliers. One in particular keeping pinging me every 2 weeks "Heads up, our price is going up 12% on this date". Today got another, as of March 1st, another 15% hike.
Says in the last 6 months their price has had to rise 47%.

Now its already at the point of really pushing my budget. Other than desire, I'm not it any big hurry, so I'm now havin gto face the decision of pulling teh trigger ASAP vs just committing to wait until Fall or whatever.
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I'm in the same boat. I have the $$$ here to buy a building, but I'm waiting till things level back out.
Lumber will drop as supply and demand level out. Steel, I have no idea.
 
Jody Treadway said:
I'm in the same boat. I have the $$$ here to buy a building, but I'm waiting till things level back out.
Lumber will drop as supply and demand level out. Steel, I have no idea.
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Steel is all about China, so it's a crap shoot. I've got 3 big projects in the air right now at work and all are very steel intensive, hard to decide which one we need the most :lol:
 
I just put a deposit on a 30x40x14 red iron building yesterday. When I was originally quoted a price about three weeks ago I should have jumped in then, would have saved me over $1k.

Hoping to start building a house this year as well, not looking forward to it. Planning to cut some trees to have milled for cabinets, floors, etc.
 
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