Lumber prices and alternatives

drkelly said:
I guess for someone buying a house with a mortgage, it is fine, but for the guy just wanting to build a shed or garage with money he saved, he is kicking himself for not doing it a year or so ago.
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We are looking at building a house now the low (and lowering, at least for now) interest rates vs rising material costs are keeping our anticipated mortgage payment close to where it was when we originally started thinking about what we wanted and what we could afford. However my plans for paying for my shop in cash after we build the house are looking further and further out lol.

Duane
 
RatLabGuy said:
Rather that up and moving, invest those resources into making it the home you want to live in, and the place you want to live. Make what already exists better instead of tearing it down and starting over.
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There aren't any jobs in Buffalo or Detroit.
 
Why do people in the building industry think there is a bubble? I have heard this from several different people in different states and different industries that supply the housing industry.

I can not come to reasonable conclusions of what bubble would pop?

Banks are not writing bad loans - They are being extremely conservative (in CLT). Plus a lot of people are refinancing to 15-year loans at the same monthly as a 30-year....so theoretically there will be more money to spend sooner.

Inflation could be a real concern, but also can be managed by .gov...not that I support that, but that's the world we live in.

For the idea of being happy with and making what you have what you want...I think we are seeing the beginning of a mass exit from cities and suburbs, People want land and space, not to be stacked in large cities that can be locked down easily.

but what do I know...just my $0.02 that really worth less than that due to inflation.
 
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UNCC-CRAWLER said:
Why do people in the building industry think there is a bubble? I have heard this from several different people in different states and different industries that supply the housing industry.
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There's a housing shortage in Raleigh. Not sure what it is currently, but I'd guess 5-10k houses.
 
There’s been several houses in my area that sold within days, multiple offers, and all over asking price. A guy on the lake was asking $285k. Buyers got into a bid war and he sold it for $320k. This was within like 2 days. He’d only owned the place for not quite 2 years and made $130k. Crazy market right now. House in my neighborhood sold in 4 days with I believe 10 offers. It also went over asking price. I’ve contemplated selling but then I’d have to eat it to buy a new place.
 
UNCC-CRAWLER said:
And this will make your blood boil...maybe not boil but damn Canadians.

www.wsj.com

Lumber Prices Are Soaring. Why Are Tree Growers Miserable?

Sawmill operators are harvesting gains while Southern landowners are struggling with a surplus of trees. “I’m not making anything,” said one Georgia timber veteran.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Why would that make anyone's blood boil?
Its simple capitalism.

People foolishly invested wrong and now have to pay for it.
 
Wes said:
House in my neighborhood sold in 4 days with I believe 10 offers. It also went over asking price. I’ve contemplated selling but then I’d have to eat it to buy a new place.
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That's my thought process as well. Next door neighbor listed their house and sold same day, multiple offers and took $35k over asking. Based on what they got per square foot we'd make a lot more than we bought it for 2 years ago but probably lose a big chunk of that on a new purchase. Plus the pain of moving is still fresh enough in the mind I really don't want to go through it again.
 
If you sell your house to bank the profit, where are you going to live? Any other house you buy is also going to have a high inflated price. Prices on ALL houses from starter homes to $1 million and up have gone up drastically. The only way to truly profit from the recent boom would be to sell your house and live in a trailer on some land, then build later if/when lumber prices drop.
 
UNCC-CRAWLER said:
And this will make your blood boil...maybe not boil but damn Canadians.

www.wsj.com

Lumber Prices Are Soaring. Why Are Tree Growers Miserable?

Sawmill operators are harvesting gains while Southern landowners are struggling with a surplus of trees. “I’m not making anything,” said one Georgia timber veteran.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
Click to expand...

Ron said:
Why would that make anyone's blood boil?
Its simple capitalism.

People foolishly invested wrong and now have to pay for it.
Click to expand...
My guess and what bothers me is the money going out of the country. I guess when I take out these 60' pines I should see if my buddy with the saw mill will cut them up for me.....
 
Ron said:
Why would that make anyone's blood boil?
Its simple capitalism.

People foolishly invested wrong and now have to pay for it.
Click to expand...

I wish it were simple capitalism, .gov got involved and IMO "let" some manipulation of the market happen...Canada wood got hit with a high tariff in 2017 to protect US mills, So the Canadian sawmills started purchasing southern mills at a good rate and now own 33% of the mills in the south, or a good bit to control the US supply. Covid hits...demand shoots through the roof, Canadian sit back and watch maybe LoL but they're too nice to do that, and the .gov drops the high tariff, 20% to 9%...now Canada wood is back in play for the US, while the landowners with trees are SOL, they may have been all along but this is an insult to injury. So now the market is humming along mills are making all the money by limiting supply (according to the article) and my guess would be to increase the CA share of the lumber (both growth and milling) market in the USA.

I fully support capitalism, people make good and bad decisions every day and I understand that but it makes my blood boil when .gov gets involved and plays with the rules. but again such is the world we live in.

ghost said:
My guess and what bothers me is the money going out of the country. I guess when I take out these 60' pines I should see if my buddy with the saw mill will cut them up for me.....
Click to expand...

Kinda, but really it bothers me because it is currently affecting me, building a house.
 
UNCC-CRAWLER said:
I wish it were simple capitalism, .gov got involved and IMO "let" some manipulation of the market happen...Canada wood got hit with a high tariff in 2017 to protect US mills, So the Canadian sawmills started purchasing southern mills at a good rate and now own 33% of the mills in the south, or a good bit to control the US supply. Covid hits...demand shoots through the roof, Canadian sit back and watch maybe LoL but they're too nice to do that, and the .gov drops the high tariff, 20% to 9%...now Canada wood is back in play for the US, while the landowners with trees are SOL, they may have been all along but this is an insult to injury. So now the market is humming along mills are making all the money by limiting supply (according to the article) and my guess would be

I fully support capitalism, people make good and bad decisions every day and I understand that but it makes my blood boil when .gov gets involved and plays with the rules. but again such is the world we live in.



Kinda, but really it bothers me because it is currently affecting me, building a house.
Click to expand...

The smart foresters were predicting this in the early 90s.
People planted more tress than demand could ever match.

Canada didnt "take over" those mills. Hell in Chester SC they bought a board plant after IP shut it down and laid off all the workers. Canfor came in bought it and put the people back to work, making more than they were for IP.

That isnt the issue. The issue is there is more standing timber than there are mills to saw it up.

The other issue they glossed over...the dude in the article planted slash pine. Which is a tweener tree and not great for any 1 product.
Loblolly grows faster (by about 8 years to full cut maturity) than Slash and with less base swell.
Long Leaf grows taller, straighter and is denser for Pole applications.

Loblolly cant make (good) poles and long leaf takes to long to be used as lumber Slash is a tweener. But given the choice a lumber mill would prefer loblolly and a pole plant would prefer long leaf.
Slash planters tried to play the middle and are now left largely holding the bag.
 
ghost said:
My guess and what bothers me is the money going out of the country. I guess when I take out these 60' pines I should see if my buddy with the saw mill will cut them up for me.....
Click to expand...
A 60' tree is probably only netting 2 logs per...depending on diamteer of course.
But you are in the sandhills and yall got some hellacious soil genetics you might get 3 out of it.


Of coure cutting is one thing, kiln drying another and finishing a thrid if you want dimensional out of it.
 
Ron said:
A 60' tree is probably only netting 2 logs per...depending on diamteer of course.
But you are in the sandhills and yall got some hellacious soil genetics you might get 3 out of it.


Of coure cutting is one thing, kiln drying another and finishing a thrid if you want dimensional out of it.
Click to expand...
30" across the base of the first one I cut. It was dead and rotting. There are 6 more. I was half joking..... ;)
 
UNCC-CRAWLER said:
Why do people in the building industry think there is a bubble? I have heard this from several different people in different states and different industries that supply the housing industry.

I can not come to reasonable conclusions of what bubble would pop?

Banks are not writing bad loans - They are being extremely conservative (in CLT). Plus a lot of people are refinancing to 15-year loans at the same monthly as a 30-year....so theoretically there will be more money to spend sooner.

Inflation could be a real concern, but also can be managed by .gov...not that I support that, but that's the world we live in.

For the idea of being happy with and making what you have what you want...I think we are seeing the beginning of a mass exit from cities and suburbs, People want land and space, not to be stacked in large cities that can be locked down easily.

but what do I know...just my $0.02 that really worth less than that due to inflation.
Click to expand...
I think the article shot itself in the foot with this bit:
The payments and restrictions on logging expired around 2000, just in time for a housing boom that pushed timber prices to highs. Mr. Bembry didn’t cut much of his timber, though.

“I liked looking at it,” he said. “And it was good for wildlife.”
Click to expand...
 
Ron said:
The smart foresters were predicting this in the early 90s.
People planted more tress than demand could ever match.
Click to expand...
a couple land managers that i know have told people to select harvest or do small chunks and replant hard woods, but owners are seeing their neighbors planting pines and see the money in their lifetime. hardwoods take to long to mature for most of the 60 year old land owners to ever see a return on investment if they plant them
 
Loganwayne said:
a couple land managers that i know have told people to select harvest or do small chunks and replant hard woods, but owners are seeing their neighbors planting pines and see the money in their lifetime. hardwoods take to long to mature for most of the 60 year old land owners to ever see a return on investment if they plant them
Click to expand...
that and unless you are growing furniture trees - there isnt a lot of hardwood demand commercially.
 
Ron said:
The smart foresters were predicting this in the early 90s.
People planted more tress than demand could ever match.

Canada didnt "take over" those mills. Hell in Chester SC they bought a board plant after IP shut it down and laid off all the workers. Canfor came in bought it and put the people back to work, making more than they were for IP.

That isnt the issue. The issue is there is more standing timber than there are mills to saw it up.

The other issue they glossed over...the dude in the article planted slash pine. Which is a tweener tree and not great for any 1 product.
Loblolly grows faster (by about 8 years to full cut maturity) than Slash and with less base swell.
Long Leaf grows taller, straighter and is denser for Pole applications.

Loblolly cant make (good) poles and long leaf takes to long to be used as lumber Slash is a tweener. But given the choice a lumber mill would prefer loblolly and a pole plant would prefer long leaf.
Slash planters tried to play the middle and are now left largely holding the bag.
Click to expand...

Sorry If I implied "Take Over", what I am implying is that Canadian mills were nudged into looking at US mills as a means to bypass the US tariff, and now that they have a position of control on the supply, which if they want can control pricing.

Makes sense about the foresters position, my family has land with pine on it, funny enough in Chester, SC, and every time the forester comes by the price of timber is low and the deal would be a net loss for us. been like that since the 90s. So we do nothing.
 
RatLabGuy said:
that Americans are soft and lazy and wasteful because we have excess resources, and aren't forced to make the most of what we have, like eeverybody else.
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Reminded me of this:

www.theguardian.com

Raze, rebuild, repeat: why Japan knocks down its houses after 30 years

Unlike in other countries, Japanese homes become valueless over time – but as the population shrinks, can its cities finally learn to slow down and refurb?
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Culturally, the Japanese are somewhat anomalous in that demolishing older homes has long been encouraged. This was partly due to earthquake resistance initially, then later for energy efficiency, modern conveniences, etc. They also suffer from population contraction like a lot of US rust belt cities have experienced. Remodeling older homes has started to catch on because it's more affordable for young families.
 
Starting on the electrical for the shop. Having problems getting everything we need.
panel.jpg
 
Are you doing it yourself or same contractor?
 
According to my suppliers the sky has fallen. Everything has gone up the 1st of every month and more increases to follow April and May. Jobs I priced at the end of January have gone up of 15-20% and GC's are still expecting us to hold our numbers. Historically yeah we could have but these increases are crazy. Material quotes are good for 30days, not 30 days and an hour, written intent and order material in 90days, which will never happen on a new shell building where they have yet to move dirt. Steel is going up 10% 4/1 and another 10% 5/1 on top of that, with increases already hit Jan, Feb and Mar.
Drywall is 20% 4/1 with increases in July and October.

Plus they don't have material, no drywall mud or R11 batt insulation. Evidently since Texas shut down Latex is in short supply so paint and Drywall mud are hard to come by.
 
I told Jody a week or so ago that we're expecting another 30% timber increase between now and the end of 2Q, falling off after that (SFH builders finish their buyout for the year). Not sure if he's heard anything different.
 
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