Recession coming?

drkelly

drkelly

Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Location
Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
Anybody that says there isn't a recession coming, is an outright fool with their head up someone's @$$. I know people are gonna hate on me for saying this, but this is my uneducated take on things:

Everything in history that things have tracked this way, there has been a recession. Big or small, it has happened. Eventually people will stop buying houses, because they are impossible to afford. Then there will be houses for sale, that aren't selling. People won't be able to pay 125,000 for a new F150, so they won't sell. Eventually, there will be more supply than demand, which drives prices down, which cuts into profits, which drives cuts, which raises unemoyment, which cuts spending, drives up foreclosures, which exacerbates the housing issue, and it eventually hits a bottom somewhere. But when state laws have now mandated $15/hr minimum wages, will it stop short of past drops because some folks make more, will it be regional because only those places will have money to spend, or will it be widespread, and go much further because companies will simply pull out of those states to cut costs, as opposed to cutting wages or simply laying folks off? Bubbles don't continue to grow, without becoming weak, and eventually busting.

But I mean the government goobers can always just print more money, keep raising wages, and everything will work out fine right?

Rant off.
 
recession wont happen on 2022 but inflation will continue to rise. you can thank the FED(bank) for that.
 
Hate/like to say it, but we need some 12% interest right now. Back to the 80's. Had 1 cd group back then netting about 16.5pct.
 
drkelly said:
www.cnn.com

A major recession is coming, Deutsche Bank warns

Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit a "mild" one.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

www.reuters.com

U.S. trucking downturn foreshadows possible economic gloom

Craig Fuller monitors millions of transactions between U.S. truckers and their customers as chief executive of transportation data company FreightWaves - and he does not like what he is seeing.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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"Economic recessions followed six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972, according to an analysis by trucking data company Convoy."
So economic recessions also did NOT follow six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972. Interesting data point they chose.
 
jeepinmatt said:
"Economic recessions followed six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972, according to an analysis by trucking data company Convoy."
So economic recessions also did NOT follow six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972. Interesting data point they chose.
Click to expand...
6 one way
1/2 dozen the other
 
It's coming. I've already seen some rates drop.
 
BRUISER said:
recession wont happen on 2022 but inflation will continue to rise. you can thank the FED(bank) for that.
Click to expand...
I've read late 2023 or early 2024.
 
awheelterd said:
It's pretty crazy that the government created every part of this inflation cycle and the looming recession. End the Fed.
Click to expand...
Yup. They pumped WAAAAAAAAAY too much money out into peoples hands when COVID hit.
 
awheelterd said:
It's pretty crazy that the government created every part of this inflation cycle and the looming recession. End the Fed.
Click to expand...
I don't know I'd say *every* part. There's a lot of dumb social movements and even private industry decisions that certain helped spin the wheel. The Fed - and Congress - acted like the big ass fulcrum to move it faster.
 
RatLabGuy said:
I don't know I'd say *every* part. There's a lot of dumb social movements and even private industry decisions that certain helped spin the wheel. The Fed - and Congress - acted like the big ass fulcrum to move it faster.
Click to expand...
The social movements and private industry decisions would have created normal changes that we refer to as normal market functions. The Fed shouldnt exist.
 
inflation will be the last biggest trigger....the bigger question is will it also trigger a reset. Recession by definition that I understand is a shrinking economy or market growth that is smaller and stagnated. Even if both these categories or any other measure shrinks I do not think is automatically reduces inflation.

So what I'm more concerned with is Recession combined with Dramatic inflation. Thoughts?
 
My M-F has had price increases of about 22-35% since August 2021. Some products we have seen much higher than that but across the board, 22-35% has been the norm between all manufacturers. We haven’t seen any slowdown in consumption or any trends like that from the consumer though. Luxury item and membership based stuff is usually first to get nixed in a persons budget and we aren’t seeing it yet. The social experiment here will be to see how long people live beyond their means.

The F-M job is the more concerning part. Our inputs have gone up 40-50% this year alone. Other operating costs like fuel are obviously up as are every other thing we use but we don’t see an extra penny at the market. Yet when you fokkers go to the store you’re paying more for your food. I heard it put perfectly on an AG podcast last week that someone is getting rich off the agriculture industry but it sure isn’t the farmer. Supply and demand in the direct to consumer meat sales side is already maxed out as processors are booked a ways out as is. Maybe an investment opportunity for someone…a USDA Licensed processing facility or two.
 
There's always a recession coming. The question is when.

When I looked last week, the dollar supply was $60T vs $35T at the end of 2019. That's why things cost "more"... Your dollars are worth less.

M2 is still at record highs, no evidence people in general are living beyond their means. Inflation will get interesting as the velocity of money increases. That's what the 50bps increases are intended to offset. This likely will last years... Possibly as many as 10.
 
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