Recession coming?

Sure, chip manuf are ramping up, but Taiwan holds the reigns.

Why are we depending on Ukraine and Russia for wheat and fertilizer? Depending on Venezuela for refined oil? Depending on china for battery tech and TV's? Why does everything plastic say made in China? Why would some pharmaceutical company have to wait on shipments of raw materials from Shanghai? Sure, we can't do EVERYTHING (read: we want others to pollute for us) but there is so much low hanging fruit, that puts our safety, security, and financial well being at risk.

No where did I say anything about state run industry. All the current political administration has to do is make it viable for manufacturing to return....and basically write their own destiny. Isn't the idea to get re-elected?
 
Bebop said:
Not sure that's even feasible. The life cycle of a vehicle is not the one of the laptop. Same for the development cycle.

You can't change an ECU every 6 months because Intel shows up with a new product.
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This is what I remember from it. The auto industry was like we can't upgrade and the chip makers were like we are not making any new plants to build old chips.
 
benXJ said:
No where did I say anything about state run industry. All the current political administration has to do is make it viable for manufacturing to return....and basically write their own destiny. Isn't the idea to get re-elected?
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How ?

Just an example : When the previous gov implemented tariffs on chinese steel (in order to make US steel more competitive), the first thing the US vendors did was raise the US-made product by the same margin and people kept buying chinese because the US shit is still much higher.



Saying : "All the current political administration has to do is make it viable for manufacturing to return." is pretty vague and not that helpful.
 
ghost said:
This is what I remember from it. The auto industry was like we can't upgrade and the chip makers were like we are not making any new plants to build old chips.
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I'm not a smart man (in Forest Gump accent).. But you would think they could make cars like computers with operating systems that allowed you to upgrade hardware/chips and reconfigure for increased performance. I understand the ECU programming is a lot easier with fixed hardware parameters. But you'd think it would be worth it to be able to adapt to electronics upgrade cycles.

benXJ said:
Why are we depending on Ukraine and Russia for wheat and fertilizer? Depending on Venezuela for refined oil? Depending on china for battery tech and TV's? Why does everything plastic say made in China? Why would some pharmaceutical company have to wait on shipments of raw materials from Shanghai? Sure, we can't do EVERYTHING (read: we want others to pollute for us) but there is so much low hanging fruit, that puts our safety, security, and financial well being at risk
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Yes, there can be some influence to protect our markets. But are you willing to pay the difference (and force everyone else to do the same)? I think it was posted on here recently that Ford was 'increasing' the average line wages at their auto plants in Mexico to $3.85 an hour. So, if we increase that to the $20-30 an hour that a union auto worker gets, I wonder how much that new F150 would be...

BTW, it would be nice to get our oil from Venezuela, but they are currently on the naughty list..
 
Southern_Transplant said:
I'm not a smart man (in Forest Gump accent).. But you would think they could make cars like computers with operating systems that allowed you to upgrade hardware/chips and reconfigure for increased performance. I understand the ECU programming is a lot easier with fixed hardware parameters. But you'd think it would be worth it to be able to adapt to electronics upgrade cycles.
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It's coming. But it takes time.
 
Southern_Transplant said:
I'm not a smart man (in Forest Gump accent).. But you would think they could make cars like computers with operating systems that allowed you to upgrade hardware/chips and reconfigure for increased performance. I understand the ECU programming is a lot easier with fixed hardware parameters. But you'd think it would be worth it to be able to adapt to electronics upgrade cycles.
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That sounds like a step towards disaster.

Dealer calls you to schedule a time to bring in your car for update 2.2.1 which fixes the glitch in update 2.2.0 (which you just left your car for a week for them to install last month) where your car sometimes stalls during right turns and has to be pulled over and rebooted by their field team who will answer your call in the order it was received, sometime between 1pm and 6pm...
 
Southern_Transplant said:
Yes, there can be some influence to protect our markets. But are you willing to pay the difference (and force everyone else to do the same)? I think it was posted on here recently that Ford was 'increasing' the average line wages at their auto plants in Mexico to $3.85 an hour. So, if we increase that to the $20-30 an hour that a union auto worker gets, I wonder how much that new F150 would be...
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But how much does that wage difference dilute when you consider shipping, importation costs (should be zero due to NAFTA, but ain't nobody crossing the border for free), and non-conformance costs due to poor training or equipment or methods?

I use to work in the power generation industry, and we had a casing that cost about $95,000 from a German casting house and Canadian machine shop. It would take approximately 6months from PO to receipt of product. We moved production away from those guys to a single source in China because it was like $45,000. Every single one we received from China required significant rework and man hours (at $200+/hour), and required non-conformance documentation due to not meeting geometric tolerancing. They were also always a month or more late, and came in absolutely covered in rust because of improper preservation and more time on the boat, which would require sandblasting (also done in house at $200/hr). When it was all said and done, the total cost was about the same, but the purchasing department patted itself on the back because they "saved $50,000" on that unit, and all the other actual costs were pushed in to other buckets where the water was muddied.
 
benXJ said:
Sure, chip manuf are ramping up, but Taiwan holds the reigns.

Why are we depending on Ukraine and Russia for wheat and fertilizer? Depending on Venezuela for refined oil? Depending on china for battery tech and TV's? Why does everything plastic say made in China? Why would some pharmaceutical company have to wait on shipments of raw materials from Shanghai? Sure, we can't do EVERYTHING (read: we want others to pollute for us) but there is so much low hanging fruit, that puts our safety, security, and financial well being at risk.

No where did I say anything about state run industry. All the current political administration has to do is make it viable for manufacturing to return....and basically write their own destiny. Isn't the idea to get re-elected?
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Because you don't want to pay the prices it would cost to do all of that in the US.
Its simple economics, it's cheaper to get things from other places.
That's how capitalism works.
 
jeepinmatt said:
But how much does that wage difference dilute when you consider shipping, importation costs (should be zero due to NAFTA, but ain't nobody crossing the border for free), and non-conformance costs due to poor training or equipment or methods?

I use to work in the power generation industry, and we had a casing that cost about $95,000 from a German casting house and Canadian machine shop. It would take approximately 6months from PO to receipt of product. We moved production away from those guys to a single source in China because it was like $45,000. Every single one we received from China required significant rework and man hours (at $200+/hour), and required non-conformance documentation due to not meeting geometric tolerancing. They were also always a month or more late, and came in absolutely covered in rust because of improper preservation and more time on the boat, which would require sandblasting (also done in house at $200/hr). When it was all said and done, the total cost was about the same, but the purchasing department patted itself on the back because they "saved $50,000" on that unit, and all the other actual costs were pushed in to other buckets where the water was muddied.
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I think that is a strong argument for proper Total Quality Management and supply chain management (regardless of the facility nationality). Larger companies will move QA/QC teams from in house to wherever they are setting up shop. But if you outsource production to the lowest bidder, be prepared for the issues above. But keep in mind, sometimes the product made abroad actually ends up better. Example: Some production year Made in Mexico Fender Stratocasters actually had better workmanship than their American counterparts.

I am definitely a fan of our nation fighting to keep critical industry (steel, automotive, technology, food, energy, etc) at home and our government supporting infrastructure and policies that make that possible. I do think Trump made a lot of headway in that regard.
 
jeepinmatt said:
When it was all said and done, the total cost was about the same, but the purchasing department patted itself on the back because they "saved $50,000" on that unit, and all the other actual costs were pushed in to other buckets where the water was muddied.
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This is not an atypical story.
 
RatLabGuy said:
Because you don't want to pay the prices it would cost to do all of that in the US.
Its simple economics, it's cheaper to get things from other places.
That's how capitalism works.
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Oh is it?
The high taxes and red tape and burdens that are artificcially placed on things due to gov't incompetence and ignorance is the free market? Do you know what I'm willing to spend money on? I don't buy a new TV, car, phone, Nikes, computer, etc every year. I keep things. I take care of things, I don't waste things.
Why is it cheaper? What is your definition of cheaper? Where is your threshold? A $4 loaf of bread you can get today or a $2 loaf of bread you can get next week? Remember, your kid is hungry.
What about the looming food shortages and runaway prices on wheat this year? Who is gonna pay for the subsidies and bailouts and emergency declarations? (Hint: you are) Used and new car prices skyrocketing due to our nuts being in a vice with overseas manufacturers? Or raw materials for medicine being hard to procure, from freaking China? Or high gasoline and natural gas and diesel prices? This is 'cheaper'?
Not only is it not 'cheaper', there is no guarantee that a mad man wont shut off supply tomorrow. I'd say that is way more expensive.
Do you think 51+% would understand that we will have to pay a bit more in the short term to get things set up back in the states (with incentives, lower regulations, less red tape, lower taxes, etc)and 'vote' for it if they heard it from a rational governor, president, whoever? (no one in office now, obviously) Our econmoy, GDP, and standard of living would SKYROCKET. Whoever implemented the plan would be in power forever.
We cut China off, prosecute heavliy for IP theft and they would be decimated. They would cease to be a pain on the world stage. SO MUCH WIN.

I understand what you're saying though, we are addicted to our $300 60 inch TVs and smartphones. We can't pay attention for more than 30 seconds. It is sad, yes. It is pathetic, yes. Yes, anyone with a brain can see it coming. And I guess it'll get worse before it gets better.
 
benXJ said:
Do you think 51+% would understand that we will have to pay a bit more in the short term to get things set up back in the states (with incentives, lower regulations, less red tape, lower taxes, etc)and 'vote' for it if they heard it from a rational governor, president, whoever? (no one in office now, obviously) Our econmoy, GDP, and standard of living would SKYROCKET. Whoever implemented the plan would be in power forever.
We cut China off, prosecute heavliy for IP theft and they would be decimated. They would cease to be a pain on the world stage. SO MUCH WIN.

I understand what you're saying though, we are addicted to our $300 60 inch TVs and smartphones. We can't pay attention for more than 30 seconds. It is sad, yes. It is pathetic, yes. Yes, anyone with a brain can see it coming. And I guess it'll get worse before it gets better.
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How exactly would our standard of living skyrocket?
It seems like if we moved everything back to america the cost of everything would get more expensive. We already have a labor shortage in so many areas, where would the people come from to work those jobs?

I don't think you would just pay more in the short term, you would pay more in the long term also.
How will you prosecute China and enforce it as well?

I'm curious how this plan would really work out.
 
We don't have a labor shortage....we have a welfare/safety net problem.

a handout problem.

a deadbeat problem.

a 'there is really no lasting affects of piss poor planning and decision making' problem.

The US population has gained about 20 million people in the past decade or so (unfortunately most are the lowest common denominator with very little skills and low IQ)....but, we have people to work....if work is what required you to eat.

Standard of living: Well, we would not be on edge every morning waiting to see if a mad man bombed a city and stopped fertilizer production....that's something. Oh, about China, it really doesn't matter, because they will be rendered pointless after we pull our money out. They can steal all the IP they want.....they won't have the resources to build anything. Not having to bow to a dictatorship for cheap Nikes would be nice too. All the time, money, and effort that is spent dealing with bad foreign actors can be spent on making the USA the best it can be. Get our infrastructure in tip top shape instead of sending $50 billion to Ukraine or Iran. How novel!

We bring it all back....we make quality stuff....and you don't buy the 'stuff' as often because its not cheap chinese crap that breaks every 6 months. Pay a bit more up front, but it lasts. That's how it evens out.
 
jeepinmatt said:
but the purchasing department patted itself on the back because they "saved $50,000" on that unit, and all the other actual costs were pushed in to other buckets where the water was muddied.
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I work for the state and this single sentence pretty much sums up my entire 10 years here.

We have stuff donated to us that winds up costing way more money than anyone knows about. Then people get upset when we decline free stuff.
 
benXJ said:
We don't have a labor shortage....we have a welfare/safety net problem.

a handout problem.

a deadbeat problem.

a 'there is really no lasting affects of piss poor planning and decision making' problem.

The US population has gained about 20 million people in the past decade or so (unfortunately most are the lowest common denominator with very little skills and low IQ)....but, we have people to work....if work is what required you to eat.

Standard of living: Well, we would not be on edge every morning waiting to see if a mad man bombed a city and stopped fertilizer production....that's something. Oh, about China, it really doesn't matter, because they will be rendered pointless after we pull our money out. They can steal all the IP they want.....they won't have the resources to build anything. Not having to bow to a dictatorship for cheap Nikes would be nice too. All the time, money, and effort that is spent dealing with bad foreign actors can be spent on making the USA the best it can be. Get our infrastructure in tip top shape instead of sending $50 billion to Ukraine or Iran. How novel!

We bring it all back....we make quality stuff....and you don't buy the 'stuff' as often because its not cheap chinese crap that breaks every 6 months. Pay a bit more up front, but it lasts. That's how it evens out.
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I'm glad worldwide economics is that simple in your mind.
 
Bebop said:
I'm glad worldwide economics is that simple in your mind.
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Well it sure isn't as hard as the corrupt and ignorant policy makers make it.

There is no magic bullet, but enacting policy that encourages more manufacturing of critical items in the USA would go a long way for our safety, security, and overall happiness. Who thought it was a good idea to offshore medicine production? Allow China to buy up our food producers? Rely on unstable actors for wheat and fertilizer? Not one thing makes long term safety and security sense, except it means a quick buck for someone. It is quite simple actually.

Why would we care what weak ass China is doing after we stop sending trillions of dollars to them every year for basically nothing, except a cheap TV and a new flashy cell phone every 6 months?
 
benXJ said:
Well it sure isn't as hard as the corrupt and ignorant policy makers make it.

There is no magic bullet, but enacting policy that encourages more manufacturing of critical items in the USA would go a long way for our safety, security, and overall happiness.
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And what policies exactly would those be? Lets hear it.
I'd love to hear your magical solution for how the government, which you routinely complain about being too overbearing, taxes too much, and too involved in people's lives, is going to get ALL companies to make EVERYTHING stateside, without seriously violating our cherished beliefs of laze faire capitalism.

If you actualy spend some time thinking about this you'll find those ideals to be opposing one another.
Bebop said:
Sooo, basically you want government involved at every level of the foreign trade ? Telling what companies can or can't do ?
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Eggs Zachary.
 
benXJ said:
The US population has gained about 20 million people in the past decade or so (unfortunately most are the lowest common denominator with very little skills and low IQ)....but, we have people to work....if work is what required you to eat.
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Also I would love to know where the hell this statistic comes from, besides just being made up in your head.
 
RatLabGuy said:
Also I would love to know where the hell this statistic comes from, besides just being made up in your head.
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It's pretty straightforward honestly. Go to the DMV, or a school pickup/dropoff line, or an amusement part, or Walmart . Do at least half of the people there seem to have very little skills and low IQ? ;)
 
jeepinmatt said:
It's pretty straightforward honestly. Go to the DMV, or a school pickup/dropoff line, or an amusement part, or Walmart . Do at least half of the people there seem to have very little skills and low IQ? ;)
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That's not new...
 
benXJ said:
We don't have a labor shortage....we have a welfare/safety net problem.

a handout problem.

a deadbeat problem.

a 'there is really no lasting affects of piss poor planning and decision making' problem.

The US population has gained about 20 million people in the past decade or so (unfortunately most are the lowest common denominator with very little skills and low IQ)....but, we have people to work....if work is what required you to eat.

Standard of living: Well, we would not be on edge every morning waiting to see if a mad man bombed a city and stopped fertilizer production....that's something. Oh, about China, it really doesn't matter, because they will be rendered pointless after we pull our money out. They can steal all the IP they want.....they won't have the resources to build anything. Not having to bow to a dictatorship for cheap Nikes would be nice too. All the time, money, and effort that is spent dealing with bad foreign actors can be spent on making the USA the best it can be. Get our infrastructure in tip top shape instead of sending $50 billion to Ukraine or Iran. How novel!

We bring it all back....we make quality stuff....and you don't buy the 'stuff' as often because its not cheap chinese crap that breaks every 6 months. Pay a bit more up front, but it lasts. That's how it evens out.
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I hear ya, and I agree with a lot of the principles of what you're saying, but it's definitely not being communicated well in my opinion.

Politics and policies are a big part of it, but the American addiction to buying the cheapest shit is the driving force behind it. Harbor Freight used to make the cheapest crap tools at the cheapest prices, and Craftsman used to make good quality tools at a fair price with a lifetime warranty. Craftsman died while Harbor Freight flourished. Honestly, I place a big part of the blame on the boomers because they grew up with good stuff, took it for granted, cheaped out on everything for their own benefit, and didn't give a crap what was left in the wake.

The biggest problem with outsourcing that is impossible to accurately quantify is the long term value of the knowledge, equipment, and skills that are retained by keeping production stateside. Understanding how things are made and why they are made a certain way and how they are designed and what it takes to source and supply the raw material and go from nothing all the way to a finished product is often as much an art as it is a science. 99 times out of 100, a well sorted process will produce better results than a "better" process that is not yet optimized. Just look at what GM has done with the pushrod V8. Science can prove that dual overhead cams and desmodronic valves and pneumatic-this-and-thats are better, but a stock 400hp LS will still deliver a beatdown, run reliably for a quarter million miles, and is simple to work on and manufacture and assemble. And a little forced induction easily puts them in the nearly 700hp range, with a warranty, from the factory. Because it is well understood and well sorted out. The reason it works for the LS is because they have been developing that platform since the mid 90's.

Point being that when you separate engineering/production/assembly, there is a knowledge gap, and when you move these things to different countries in different time zones, there is a communication and understanding gap, and "progress" stalls and sometimes even regresses. Add in the drive of companies to make things cheaper (primary driver of outsourcing), and focus on investor returns (short term profits, often at the cost of long term value), and you end up in the situation we are in, where US companies post record profits for overpriced, low quality products, made in 3rd world countries (or 3rd world conditions), and often with little regard to true long term environmental impact of such disposable products and a non-level playing field when it comes to regulations and working conditions.
 
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