Stock market

drkelly

Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Location
Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
Well, after three big down days in a row, the 'Buy the Dippers' came out today. No big surprise. It is going to be interesting to see how this unfolds.
 

rodney eppes

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2010
Location
Mt.Holly NC 28120

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jeepinmatt

At least half the people are dumber than the rest
Joined
Mar 24, 2005
Location
Stanley, NC

shawn

running dog lackey of the oppressor class
Administrator
Joined
Mar 13, 2005
Location
Raleigh, NC
Yeah, that would make sense if we had any semblance of capitalism left. Government regulation and complication have created excessive barriers to entry.

Barriers to entry are only a secondary complication to capitalism, and don't negate the underlying concept.
 

jeepinmatt

At least half the people are dumber than the rest
Joined
Mar 24, 2005
Location
Stanley, NC
Barriers to entry are only a secondary complication to capitalism, and don't negate the underlying concept.
Ok, whats the first?
 

rodney eppes

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2010
Location
Mt.Holly NC 28120
Volatility ahead?
  • I expect typical volatility associated with month-end and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing.
  • There are ongoing talks in Washington about another stimulus package. Positive news from Congress could cause markets to rally while negative comments from politicians could cast doubt, and markets could respond negatively.
  • Tuesday will be the first Presidential debate. A clear winner could move both equity and bond markets. No clear winner probably won’t cause a market reaction.
  • Several economic reports will be released Wednesday and Thursday. Any of them could turn out to be market moving. I will repost newsworthy information on social media.
  • Friday, we’ll get the September jobs report. I’m expecting 900K+ new jobs and the unemployment rate to continue its downward trend. A better number could put further stimulus in question; a weaker number could indicate a more fragile economy.
  • The US Dollar declined from March through August, making Gold, Commodities, and Emerging Markets more attractive. In recent weeks investors have flocked to the US Dollar, causing investments that benefit from a weak Dollar to underperform. These would be the areas where I would reduce exposure and risk on economic weakness or if the Dollar continues to strengthen.
  • Early in September, the S&P 500 jumped above 3550; last week, the index fell below 3250. Calculating valuation is difficult when Washington is injecting Trillions of Dollars of stimulus, and global central banks are providing unprecedented liquidity. Given the current expectations for earnings over the next 12 months, I believe fair value on the S&P 500 is in the 3300 area.
  • COVID-19 and trade issues with China continue to create uncertainty.
  • The political risk around the election and debate over additional stimulus makes equity markets vulnerable to a sell-off. I would not be surprised to see equity markets fall another 10% ahead of the election.
I feel like we’re halfway through a nightmare. I believe six months from now, the elections will be behind us, COVID-19 vaccinations will have started, and life will begin to return to normal. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain accommodative through 2023, supporting the resumption of economic growth.

From my Advisor.
 

rcalexander105

Rod Alexander
Joined
Nov 3, 2017
Location
High Point

upload_2020-11-3_9-26-1.png


Doesn't this (i.e., the "value factor") inherently imply that free market capitalism works and ultimately will correct itself (i.e., stocks that are undervalued will appreciate and stocks that are overvalued will depreciate)?

Full disclosure, I didn't read read the article...just inferring from the posted graph.
 

Falko

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 20, 2005
Location
Winston-Salem
Another Blow for the Winter economy!
Spiking Covid deaths and the treasury suddenly "remembering " about the national debt will definitely be battling vaccine optimism in the short term. Bill Ackerman has gone back in on CDS's though who can blame him for how well it worked in Feb.

While it may not be a reason to run and hide, I certainly have stop loss orders in place.
 

awheelterd

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 18, 2007
Location
johnston co./ ncsu
How y'all doing? I'm up 5.5% today. I bought some Chinese ev stock a few weeks ago and it's rocking and rolling. Up almost 40% since I bought it.
 

DSM Turbos

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Location
Raleigh, NC
I got lazy. Finally moved my whole portfolio (outside of 401k) to be managed with Fidelity about 3 months ago. They gave me a really good fee for managing it all. Before that I basically just used the same 30 year old mutual funds were not very tax friendly. Right now they are doing about the same return that I would have done on my own, but hopefully they will structure will benefit me more come tax time.

We will see in the long term if its worth it, but at least its nice now not thinking about it as much and letting them run with it.
 

kaiser715

Doing hard time
Joined
Jun 1, 2006
Location
Pocket, NC
I got lazy. Finally moved my whole portfolio (outside of 401k) to be managed with Fidelity about 3 months ago. They gave me a really good fee for managing it all. Before that I basically just used the same 30 year old mutual funds were not very tax friendly. Right now they are doing about the same return that I would have done on my own, but hopefully they will structure will benefit me more come tax time.

We will see in the long term if its worth it, but at least its nice now not thinking about it as much and letting them run with it.
I just made the decision to move away from a managed portfolio that had about 2/3 of my holdings. They performed slightly better, but in the end, just enough extra to pay the management fee. In good years it was tolerable, weak years not so good.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk
 

awheelterd

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 18, 2007
Location
johnston co./ ncsu
Wound up 6.8% to the good today. Tesla was a nice ride and my Chinese tesla was knocking it out of the park.
 

DSM Turbos

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Location
Raleigh, NC
I just made the decision to move away from a managed portfolio that had about 2/3 of my holdings. They performed slightly better, but in the end, just enough extra to pay the management fee. In good years it was tolerable, weak years not so good.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

I was a bit torn but my fees are less than .75% so it’s not bad. And I never paid attention before really and didn’t plan to. We will see how it works out I guess.
 

awheelterd

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 18, 2007
Location
johnston co./ ncsu
I was a bit torn but my fees are less than .75% so it’s not bad. And I never paid attention before really and didn’t plan to. We will see how it works out I guess.
I plan on leaving my real money alone and continue to let the professionals handle it. I'm just playing around in robinhood right now. I'm trying to figure out my "strategy" though. I am a "buy and hold" kind of guy and so far everything I have bought so far I plan to ride for a while. I've been watching the top 20 movers and am real tempted to start buying and selling off that list. Big risk big reward though.
 
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