Stock market

kaiser715

Doing hard time
Joined
Jun 1, 2006
Location
Pocket, NC
Didn’t look at my daily gain, but my best returning account is at 46.54% YTD. My Roth is 26.51% and SEP 40.22%. Definitely crazy year for me.

So...the DOW is up 4.08% year to date. And you got almost 12 times that? You need to hire out.
 

kaiser715

Doing hard time
Joined
Jun 1, 2006
Location
Pocket, NC
^i bought a few things in June, and am up 41% as of today....wish I had bought alot more. It can be done. Will it last? Doubt it.

We need another bottom fall out so I can buy more! Ha.

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New contributions (and gains on them) really don't count when you are calculating returns for a period. You need to calculate your gain just on what you had on Jan 1 to be of any value.
 

drkelly

Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Location
Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

2020-11-19-BI-5-Mkt-to-GDP-Detrended-Recent.png


2020-11-19-BI-4-Mkt-to-GDP-Detrended.png
 
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Falko

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 20, 2005
Location
Winston-Salem
Given current equity value it's tempting to accept this outright, but there's a variable missing from the 'Buffett Indicator'. Considering only GDP and stock value leaves out any correction for the income potential from other investment sources. People are willing to pay more for stocks because rock bottom interest rates have driven returns of every other paper investment class into the ground.

The height of the 'overvalued' peak is also exacerbated by the drop in GDP due to Covid shutdowns. Optimists would tell you that once the vaccine hits it will be game on for 3% growth per quarter, and stocks trade at future earning potential, not current earnings. The question becomes, do you believe the optimists?
 

drkelly

Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Location
Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
Given current equity value it's tempting to accept this outright, but there's a variable missing from the 'Buffett Indicator'. Considering only GDP and stock value leaves out any correction for the income potential from other investment sources. People are willing to pay more for stocks because rock bottom interest rates have driven returns of every other paper investment class into the ground.

The height of the 'overvalued' peak is also exacerbated by the drop in GDP due to Covid shutdowns. Optimists would tell you that once the vaccine hits it will be game on for 3% growth per quarter, and stocks trade at future earning potential, not current earnings. The question becomes, do you believe the optimists?


I'm not a buyer at these levels. Are you?
 

Falko

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 20, 2005
Location
Winston-Salem
I'm not a buyer at these levels. Are you?
If I'm honest I've been proven to be too pessimistic since the flash crash at the end of 2018. I found a return to QE in the interim to be hasty, in support of a DJI number only rather than supporting economic need, in turn inflating equity value beyond reasonable P/E ratios and setting up the potential for crash which ended up materializing, but under the drag of Covid rather than natural forces. The covid crash allowed everyone to ignore the underlying faults in valuations, and I feel we are back in the same boat, relying on the hope of the government printing more stimulus money so we can keep having a good time.

That said, per my earlier point, where else are you going to use you money? There are still places of relative safety that I am buying.
 

shawn

running dog lackey of the oppressor class
Administrator
Joined
Mar 13, 2005
Location
Raleigh, NC
I'm not a buyer at these levels. Are you?
It depends on your game. If you're the "buy and hold" sort, then you hope for some significant pullback that you think will add value to your buy-in price.

If you're just looking short-term, then what 'teh market' says doesn't matter. Hell, if you think it's going to go down, buy puts.

I bought common yesterday and last week. Looking for FOMO moves in laggards. The setup is there.
 

99JeepXJ

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2013
Location
Charlotte
So...the DOW is up 4.08% year to date. And you got almost 12 times that? You need to hire out.

I’ll take a screen shot next time I’m at my computer. Reason for the gains, I had a good bonus payout in March of $20k and bought a bunch, funded SEP etc. June when the next bonus paid out I maxed out my SEP and bought more.
 

drkelly

Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Location
Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
It depends on your game. If you're the "buy and hold" sort, then you hope for some significant pullback that you think will add value to your buy-in price.

If you're just looking short-term, then what 'teh market' says doesn't matter. Hell, if you think it's going to go down, buy puts.

I bought common yesterday and last week. Looking for FOMO moves in laggards. The setup is there.


FOMO at WFO!!!
 

drkelly

Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Location
Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
Fear and Greed index 11-27-20.jpg


Fear and Greed over time 11-27-20.jpg
 

kaiser715

Doing hard time
Joined
Jun 1, 2006
Location
Pocket, NC
Makes a lot more sense now.

Still not fair to call it a return on your investment net as of Jan. 1.

Very impressive, though, and fortunate, that you had the cash -- and nerves -- to buy when you did.



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99JeepXJ

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2013
Location
Charlotte
Makes a lot more sense now.

Still not fair to call it a return on your investment net as of Jan. 1.

Very impressive, though, and fortunate, that you had the cash -- and nerves -- to buy when you did.



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Very fortunate, thankful etc... Only if I could have told my younger self to do it earlier. Regardless how the market is doing moving forward, investing in some way shape or form, is a priority.

As far as nerves go, I’ve always looked at this account as a long term thing. Even if my initial buy in in March took a hit, it would eventually rebound at some point
 

rodney eppes

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2010
Location
Mt.Holly NC 28120
Federal Reserve will hold interest rate near 0, through 2023!
AND
Following its two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve committed to continue buying bonds until the economy reaches full employment and inflation stays at 2%. The GDP outlook was raised to 4.2% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022.
 

jeepinmatt

At least half the people are dumber than the rest
Joined
Mar 24, 2005
Location
Stanley, NC
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