Stock market

Attachments

  • IMG_20200910_185101945.jpg
    IMG_20200910_185101945.jpg
    150.8 KB · Views: 253
jeepinmatt said:
Yeah, that would make sense if we had any semblance of capitalism left. Government regulation and complication have created excessive barriers to entry.
Click to expand...

Barriers to entry are only a secondary complication to capitalism, and don't negate the underlying concept.
 
Volatility ahead?
  • I expect typical volatility associated with month-end and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing.
  • There are ongoing talks in Washington about another stimulus package. Positive news from Congress could cause markets to rally while negative comments from politicians could cast doubt, and markets could respond negatively.
  • Tuesday will be the first Presidential debate. A clear winner could move both equity and bond markets. No clear winner probably won’t cause a market reaction.
  • Several economic reports will be released Wednesday and Thursday. Any of them could turn out to be market moving. I will repost newsworthy information on social media.
  • Friday, we’ll get the September jobs report. I’m expecting 900K+ new jobs and the unemployment rate to continue its downward trend. A better number could put further stimulus in question; a weaker number could indicate a more fragile economy.
  • The US Dollar declined from March through August, making Gold, Commodities, and Emerging Markets more attractive. In recent weeks investors have flocked to the US Dollar, causing investments that benefit from a weak Dollar to underperform. These would be the areas where I would reduce exposure and risk on economic weakness or if the Dollar continues to strengthen.
  • Early in September, the S&P 500 jumped above 3550; last week, the index fell below 3250. Calculating valuation is difficult when Washington is injecting Trillions of Dollars of stimulus, and global central banks are providing unprecedented liquidity. Given the current expectations for earnings over the next 12 months, I believe fair value on the S&P 500 is in the 3300 area.
  • COVID-19 and trade issues with China continue to create uncertainty.
  • The political risk around the election and debate over additional stimulus makes equity markets vulnerable to a sell-off. I would not be surprised to see equity markets fall another 10% ahead of the election.
I feel like we’re halfway through a nightmare. I believe six months from now, the elections will be behind us, COVID-19 vaccinations will have started, and life will begin to return to normal. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain accommodative through 2023, supporting the resumption of economic growth.

From my Advisor.
 
drkelly said:
Interesting graph:

View attachment 329934



From this article:

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4383875-weekly-s-and-p-500-chartstorm-dont-lose-perspective
Click to expand...

upload_2020-11-3_9-26-1.png


Doesn't this (i.e., the "value factor") inherently imply that free market capitalism works and ultimately will correct itself (i.e., stocks that are undervalued will appreciate and stocks that are overvalued will depreciate)?

Full disclosure, I didn't read read the article...just inferring from the posted graph.
 
rodney eppes said:
Another Blow for the Winter economy!
Click to expand...
Spiking Covid deaths and the treasury suddenly "remembering [emoji849]" about the national debt will definitely be battling vaccine optimism in the short term. Bill Ackerman has gone back in on CDS's though who can blame him for how well it worked in Feb.

While it may not be a reason to run and hide, I certainly have stop loss orders in place.
 
How y'all doing? I'm up 5.5% today. I bought some Chinese ev stock a few weeks ago and it's rocking and rolling. Up almost 40% since I bought it.
 
I got lazy. Finally moved my whole portfolio (outside of 401k) to be managed with Fidelity about 3 months ago. They gave me a really good fee for managing it all. Before that I basically just used the same 30 year old mutual funds were not very tax friendly. Right now they are doing about the same return that I would have done on my own, but hopefully they will structure will benefit me more come tax time.

We will see in the long term if its worth it, but at least its nice now not thinking about it as much and letting them run with it.
 
DSM Turbos said:
I got lazy. Finally moved my whole portfolio (outside of 401k) to be managed with Fidelity about 3 months ago. They gave me a really good fee for managing it all. Before that I basically just used the same 30 year old mutual funds were not very tax friendly. Right now they are doing about the same return that I would have done on my own, but hopefully they will structure will benefit me more come tax time.

We will see in the long term if its worth it, but at least its nice now not thinking about it as much and letting them run with it.
Click to expand...
I just made the decision to move away from a managed portfolio that had about 2/3 of my holdings. They performed slightly better, but in the end, just enough extra to pay the management fee. In good years it was tolerable, weak years not so good.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk
 
Wound up 6.8% to the good today. Tesla was a nice ride and my Chinese tesla was knocking it out of the park.
 
kaiser715 said:
I just made the decision to move away from a managed portfolio that had about 2/3 of my holdings. They performed slightly better, but in the end, just enough extra to pay the management fee. In good years it was tolerable, weak years not so good.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I was a bit torn but my fees are less than .75% so it’s not bad. And I never paid attention before really and didn’t plan to. We will see how it works out I guess.
 
DSM Turbos said:
I was a bit torn but my fees are less than .75% so it’s not bad. And I never paid attention before really and didn’t plan to. We will see how it works out I guess.
Click to expand...
I plan on leaving my real money alone and continue to let the professionals handle it. I'm just playing around in robinhood right now. I'm trying to figure out my "strategy" though. I am a "buy and hold" kind of guy and so far everything I have bought so far I plan to ride for a while. I've been watching the top 20 movers and am real tempted to start buying and selling off that list. Big risk big reward though.
 
Back
Top