Housing market trash

jcramsey said:
Only upgrade to that view would be me stomping through the creek in my wife beater and cutoff jorts with a stringer full of trout
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Yeah, but it would be you and a dozen other hipsters you don't know that live in the half million dollar shacks across the river.
 
drkelly said:
www.foxbusiness.com

Home prices forecasted to plunge, but US expected to avoid a repeat of 2008 financial crisis: Fannie Mae

Fannie Mae's latest economic forecast predicted home prices will drop by over 6% in the next two years but said the U.S. market is in good shape to weather the decline.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com
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and yet at the bottom of the article...
If you want to take advantage of today's interest rates before they increase, you could consider refinancing your mortgage to lower your monthly payment. To see if this is the right option for you, contact Credible to speak to a home loan expert and get all of your questions answered.
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Its hard for me to imagine there's any sizeable group of people financing today, statistically almost everybody has a lower interest rate already than they could get on a new refi.
 
RatLabGuy said:
and yet at the bottom of the article...

Its hard for me to imagine there's any sizeable group of people financing today, statistically almost everybody has a lower interest rate already than they could get on a new refi.
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As compared to history, interest rates are not high. They are higher than they have been the last couple years but as a whole, they are still reasonably low.
 
rockcity said:
As compared to history, interest rates are not high. They are higher than they have been the last couple years but as a whole, they are still reasonably low.
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Depends what you mean by "history".
Its been about 15 years since this high.
So the only people with mortgages today who may have an interest rate higher would be somebody who has been in their current place for that long AND did not refinance during any of the much lower past, which would be insane not to.
What % of the population is that? It has to be a tiny amount of the mortgage market share.
 
RatLabGuy said:
and yet at the bottom of the article...

Its hard for me to imagine there's any sizeable group of people financing today, statistically almost everybody has a lower interest rate already than they could get on a new refi.
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Mine also had this gem:
"If you are struggling in today's economy, you could consider taking out a personal loan to help you pay down your debt at a lower interest rate, saving you money each month. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score."

Which feeds directly into your point here:
RatLabGuy said:
Depends what you mean by "history".
Its been about 15 years since this high.
So the only people with mortgages today who may have an interest rate higher would be somebody who has been in their current place for that long AND did not refinance during any of the much lower past, which would be insane not to.
What % of the population is that? It has to be a tiny amount of the mortgage market share.
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The answer should be basically none, but I bet it's more like 30-40%. I had a coworker who's mortgage was north of 5%, but didn't want to refi when it was below 3% because they had "been in the house too long and it wasn't worth it". They also were cash strapped, and I pointed out they could get a higher rate and credit back or cash out and STILL pay less in interest, and they just looked at me like a deer in headlights.
 
RatLabGuy said:
Depends what you mean by "history".
Its been about 15 years since this high.
So the only people with mortgages today who may have an interest rate higher would be somebody who has been in their current place for that long AND did not refinance during any of the much lower past, which would be insane not to.
What % of the population is that? It has to be a tiny amount of the mortgage market share.
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Or it could be someone that had shitty credit in the past and a terrible rate where today’s rates are “low”.
 
jeepinmatt said:
The answer should be basically none, but I bet it's more like 30-40%. I had a coworker who's mortgage was north of 5%, but didn't want to refi when it was below 3% because they had "been in the house too long and it wasn't worth it". They also were cash strapped, and I pointed out they could get a higher rate and credit back or cash out and STILL pay less in interest, and they just looked at me like a deer in headlights.
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I hear what you're saying, but think of the math. I'm trying to see if I can find a chart showing the distrobution of years everyone is into their mortgages, but that's pretty niche so don't know if I can.
If 100% of moertgages were 30 years (they aren't), and the # of new mortgages originated is the same every year (it isn't, its been a been boom the last 3 years), then literally at absolute most, half of all mortgages started 15 years ago or earlier. And even that era was a spike, not a long consistent trend, so many older loans are still lower than today's rates.
Now pile on the reality that any 15 year loan would have cmpleted already (or would be so close the cost of a refi is nonsensical) and that the vast majority of today's loans actually originated within the last decade, and the % of people that even have the opportunity to be a bad decision maker like your coworker is small.
 
rockcity said:
Or it could be someone that had shitty credit in the past and a terrible rate where today’s rates are “low”.
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this is a very good point.
 
rockcity said:
As compared to history, interest rates are not high. They are higher than they have been the last couple years but as a whole, they are still reasonably low.
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Aktchually….
This ain’t true. It’s been repeated to be taken as a troof… but it’s statistically false.

I’ll dig up the data on a computer and not my phone. But short story rates have been under 5% more than they have been double digits in the entirety of US mortgage history.

People our age just were coming of age in the 80s and as a species humans tend to think their first experiences are the norm. So our norm was Reaganomics and historically high interest rates.

Edit - just read my post from earlier in this thread :
nc4x4.com

Housing market trash

That rent payment pays the insurance premium each month and sets some aside for deductibles. And the house should continue to appreciate. But yea.... having to deal with it sucks for the homeowner. What’s paying for the 100/night extended stay hotel? What’s paying for the 8k HVAC system?
nc4x4.com nc4x4.com
 
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Eh, higher than they have been, but still low historically.
 
GLTHFJ60 said:
View attachment 392806

Eh, higher than they have been, but still low historically.
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sure, but again, that only matters if you;re somebody who was in a mortgage > 20 years ago.

I personally don't really care about the long hostorical trend (other than random knowledge and arguments). I care about the future, which is not at all well predicted from the past (without considering a lot of other things too)
 

99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than 6% | Fortune

'I can’t afford to sell because I don’t want to lose that rate': 3% mortgage rates will loom large over the U.S. housing market for years to come.
fortune.com


Think about it like this, if you took on a $600,000 mortgage and your rate is 7%, your monthly principal and interest payment would be $3,992. But with the same size loan and a rate of 3%, your monthly payment is slightly over $2,530 a month.
 
drkelly said:

99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than 6% | Fortune

'I can’t afford to sell because I don’t want to lose that rate': 3% mortgage rates will loom large over the U.S. housing market for years to come.
fortune.com


Think about it like this, if you took on a $600,000 mortgage and your rate is 7%, your monthly principal and interest payment would be $3,992. But with the same size loan and a rate of 3%, your monthly payment is slightly over $2,530 a month.
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It would take a lot for me to change up now. My rate is 2.5. I don't imagine it will ever get back there again
 
drkelly said:

99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than 6% | Fortune

'I can’t afford to sell because I don’t want to lose that rate': 3% mortgage rates will loom large over the U.S. housing market for years to come.
fortune.com


Think about it like this, if you took on a $600,000 mortgage and your rate is 7%, your monthly principal and interest payment would be $3,992. But with the same size loan and a rate of 3%, your monthly payment is slightly over $2,530 a month.
Click to expand...

My best friend is living this hell right now. I mentioned him previously in this thread. Sold his house in Emerald Isle for $250k MORE than he bought it for 12 months prior. Apparently the island is like 95% developed, but they were able to snag a 2nd row lot to build a family home. Had a $700k budget, builder quoted like $6-650 for what they wanted, figured that left them a 10%-ish contingency. The build was delayed a few months as they navigated a misrepresentation of septic size. Rate increases over that time alone increased their mortgage payment roughly $1000/month…then the builder came back and said whoops, we underquoted by $200k. So now they’re basically back to having to buy what they just sold (and renovated) or find somewhere else to live.
 
UTfball68 said:
My best friend is living this hell right now. I mentioned him previously in this thread. Sold his house in Emerald Isle for $250k MORE than he bought it for 12 months prior. Apparently the island is like 95% developed, but they were able to snag a 2nd row lot to build a family home. Had a $700k budget, builder quoted like $6-650 for what they wanted, figured that left them a 10%-ish contingency. The build was delayed a few months as they navigated a misrepresentation of septic size. Rate increases over that time alone increased their mortgage payment roughly $1000/month…then the builder came back and said whoops, we underquoted by $200k. So now they’re basically back to having to buy what they just sold (and renovated) or find somewhere else to live.
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Build smaller? Are they renting now?
 
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