jeepinmatt
..l.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2005
- Location
- On the internet
Yeah, but it would be you and a dozen other hipsters you don't know that live in the half million dollar shacks across the river.
Housing market trash
- Thread starter DonYukon
- Start date
GLTHFJ60
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Aug 17, 2012
- Location
- Durham, NC
Nearly 3k sq/ft houses in my neighborhood are selling at or below 400k for the first time in 3-4 years. The market is definitely cooling off around here.
drkelly
Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2005
- Location
- Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
Home prices forecasted to plunge, but US expected to avoid a repeat of 2008 financial crisis: Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae's latest economic forecast predicted home prices will drop by over 6% in the next two years but said the U.S. market is in good shape to weather the decline.
jeepinmatt
..l.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2005
- Location
- On the internet
Heck, they've already dropped more than 6% in the second half of last year.Home prices forecasted to plunge, but US expected to avoid a repeat of 2008 financial crisis: Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae's latest economic forecast predicted home prices will drop by over 6% in the next two years but said the U.S. market is in good shape to weather the decline.www.foxbusiness.com
rockcity
everyday is a chance to get better
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2005
- Location
- Greenville, NC
Value is what people are willing to (over)pay.
I think people quit over paying, so the values appear to have gone down.
RatLabGuy
You look like a monkey and smell like one too
- Joined
- May 18, 2005
- Location
- Churchville, MD
and yet at the bottom of the article...Home prices forecasted to plunge, but US expected to avoid a repeat of 2008 financial crisis: Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae's latest economic forecast predicted home prices will drop by over 6% in the next two years but said the U.S. market is in good shape to weather the decline.
Its hard for me to imagine there's any sizeable group of people financing today, statistically almost everybody has a lower interest rate already than they could get on a new refi.
rockcity
everyday is a chance to get better
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2005
- Location
- Greenville, NC
As compared to history, interest rates are not high. They are higher than they have been the last couple years but as a whole, they are still reasonably low.
RatLabGuy
You look like a monkey and smell like one too
- Joined
- May 18, 2005
- Location
- Churchville, MD
Depends what you mean by "history".
Its been about 15 years since this high.
So the only people with mortgages today who may have an interest rate higher would be somebody who has been in their current place for that long AND did not refinance during any of the much lower past, which would be insane not to.
What % of the population is that? It has to be a tiny amount of the mortgage market share.
jeepinmatt
..l.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2005
- Location
- On the internet
Mine also had this gem:
"If you are struggling in today's economy, you could consider taking out a personal loan to help you pay down your debt at a lower interest rate, saving you money each month. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score."
Which feeds directly into your point here:
The answer should be basically none, but I bet it's more like 30-40%. I had a coworker who's mortgage was north of 5%, but didn't want to refi when it was below 3% because they had "been in the house too long and it wasn't worth it". They also were cash strapped, and I pointed out they could get a higher rate and credit back or cash out and STILL pay less in interest, and they just looked at me like a deer in headlights.
rockcity
everyday is a chance to get better
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2005
- Location
- Greenville, NC
Or it could be someone that had shitty credit in the past and a terrible rate where today’s rates are “low”.
RatLabGuy
You look like a monkey and smell like one too
- Joined
- May 18, 2005
- Location
- Churchville, MD
I hear what you're saying, but think of the math. I'm trying to see if I can find a chart showing the distrobution of years everyone is into their mortgages, but that's pretty niche so don't know if I can.
If 100% of moertgages were 30 years (they aren't), and the # of new mortgages originated is the same every year (it isn't, its been a been boom the last 3 years), then literally at absolute most, half of all mortgages started 15 years ago or earlier. And even that era was a spike, not a long consistent trend, so many older loans are still lower than today's rates.
Now pile on the reality that any 15 year loan would have cmpleted already (or would be so close the cost of a refi is nonsensical) and that the vast majority of today's loans actually originated within the last decade, and the % of people that even have the opportunity to be a bad decision maker like your coworker is small.
RatLabGuy
You look like a monkey and smell like one too
- Joined
- May 18, 2005
- Location
- Churchville, MD
this is a very good point.
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2005
- Location
- Sharon, SC
Aktchually….
This ain’t true. It’s been repeated to be taken as a troof… but it’s statistically false.
I’ll dig up the data on a computer and not my phone. But short story rates have been under 5% more than they have been double digits in the entirety of US mortgage history.
People our age just were coming of age in the 80s and as a species humans tend to think their first experiences are the norm. So our norm was Reaganomics and historically high interest rates.
Edit - just read my post from earlier in this thread :
Housing market trash
That rent payment pays the insurance premium each month and sets some aside for deductibles. And the house should continue to appreciate. But yea.... having to deal with it sucks for the homeowner. What’s paying for the 100/night extended stay hotel? What’s paying for the 8k HVAC system?
nc4x4.com
GLTHFJ60
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Aug 17, 2012
- Location
- Durham, NC
Eh, higher than they have been, but still low historically.
Tom@Hilltop_Machine
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Mar 31, 2005
- Location
- Rural Retreat, VA
That is why my savings account at the bank was earning 6 percent interest in 1980.
RatLabGuy
You look like a monkey and smell like one too
- Joined
- May 18, 2005
- Location
- Churchville, MD
sure, but again, that only matters if you;re somebody who was in a mortgage > 20 years ago.
I personally don't really care about the long hostorical trend (other than random knowledge and arguments). I care about the future, which is not at all well predicted from the past (without considering a lot of other things too)
RatLabGuy
You look like a monkey and smell like one too
- Joined
- May 18, 2005
- Location
- Churchville, MD
drkelly
Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2005
- Location
- Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than 6% | Fortune
'I can’t afford to sell because I don’t want to lose that rate': 3% mortgage rates will loom large over the U.S. housing market for years to come.
fortune.com
Think about it like this, if you took on a $600,000 mortgage and your rate is 7%, your monthly principal and interest payment would be $3,992. But with the same size loan and a rate of 3%, your monthly payment is slightly over $2,530 a month.
awheelterd
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2007
- Location
- Kenly, NC
It would take a lot for me to change up now. My rate is 2.5. I don't imagine it will ever get back there again
UTfball68
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2008
- Location
- Granite Quarry
My best friend is living this hell right now. I mentioned him previously in this thread. Sold his house in Emerald Isle for $250k MORE than he bought it for 12 months prior. Apparently the island is like 95% developed, but they were able to snag a 2nd row lot to build a family home. Had a $700k budget, builder quoted like $6-650 for what they wanted, figured that left them a 10%-ish contingency. The build was delayed a few months as they navigated a misrepresentation of septic size. Rate increases over that time alone increased their mortgage payment roughly $1000/month…then the builder came back and said whoops, we underquoted by $200k. So now they’re basically back to having to buy what they just sold (and renovated) or find somewhere else to live.
cranbiz
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Nov 11, 2015
- Location
- Wentworth, NC
Same here.
benXJ
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2005
- Location
- Raleigh NC
Build smaller? Are they renting now?
UTfball68
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2008
- Location
- Granite Quarry
To build smaller would put them in about what they had…they have a potential rental lined up…but looked at a new listing that’s a strong contender that’s in roughly the same area…
drkelly
Dipstick who put two vehicles on jack stands
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2005
- Location
- Oak Ridge/Stokesdale, NC
Housing affordability is at the lowest level in over a decade | Fox Business
Americans' ability to buy a house is at the lowest level since 2006 because of high mortgage rates and steep home prices, according to Atlanta Fed data.