Housing market trash

“The runaway COVID housing boom of 2021 was insane, and never in line with underlying demographics, making it likely among the biggest real estate bubbles ever. Now it's unwinding.“

But is that In 2022 dollars?
 
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UTfball68 said:
I feel like someone predicted unsustainable prices somewhere around page 6, and others felt it was just a market correction for lack of supply and increasing inflation.
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Tin foil is making a comeback in the headwear accessory market. Here..... Want some?
 
UTfball68 said:
I feel like someone predicted unsustainable prices somewhere around page 6, and others felt it was just a market correction for lack of supply and increasing inflation.
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I think it was fleshed out better on page 10 myself, but F you for making me waste 5 minutes of my life re-reading the first 10 pages of this thread :flipoff2:

jeepinmatt said:
Yep, that covers a lot of it.

Notice that prices basically flat for 5 years from 2015-2020, other than some normal inflation. Then all of a sudden things go apeshit. So...

Did a bunch of people show up? You know I agree completely about inflation, but you are saying demand is the price driver, not inflation. Also, your chart has a deceptive start point. Stretch it back a little further, and you'll see a dip (or artificial bump) leading up to 2010:
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Things were pretty dang linear until Covid/Lockdowns/Shortages:
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If you look at the population growth line, and that highly technical linear overlay I did on the housing price graph, they aren't too far apart on the slope. In fact, the average housing price was trending fairly close to right at $1 per person, which is an interesting correlation. But then notice the population growth rate has slowed a bit, while housing prices have jumped.

All that to say: I think there is an artificial perception of excessive demand that is driven by low interest rates, massive inflation, FOMO/hysteria, corporatization of residential home ownership, market manipulation (see article about Zillow bowing out because they can't manipulate the market enough to be profitable anymore), and most everyone's natural desire to upgrade, plus general stupidity in a Covid world, which is driving us into 2008 Remix. There are too many people making too much money on it, and it's in their best interest to keep it going, even if it doesn't make sense.
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jeepinmatt said:
I think it was fleshed out better on page 10 myself, but F you for making me waste 5 minutes of my life re-reading the first 10 pages of this thread :flipoff2:
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Teamwork makes the dream work. It’s literally my job to plant a seed and watch it grow by people smarter than me.
 
UTfball68 said:
Teamwork makes the dream work. It’s literally my job to plant a seed and watch it grow by people smarter than me.
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At least somewhere in those 10 pages I came across the proper use of the word hypertardism. :D
 
RatLabGuy said:
My brother was a little slow getting his house up for sale after buying their new place, and now he is left holding the bag.
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We are 14 months out from our home sale and 12 months out from our home purchase.

I was sweating bullets trying to make sure we didn't end up on the wrong side of the bubble, or holding the mortgage for two houses.

We paid a bit more than we wanted, but we sold for more than we expected....glad we scooped up the low interest rate before the wheels fell off the bus.
 
UTfball68 said:
With gains like we’re experiencing, there’s always a bubble and the market always self-corrects. It may not drop to what it was, but I highly doubt my house will still be a half million dollar house 3 years from now. Even if it drops to a $400k house, it’s still a 30% increase from what I paid, that’s the inflation variable. If I sell at the half million peak, that’s still a realized gain of $100k. And frankly, I don’t think my house will even be a $400k house 3 years from now, I just don’t see how it’s sustainable.

Edit…but that’s also why I don’t play the real estate game and I’m a rather bland investor. Spikes and volatility make me anxious.
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shawn said:
Where is the evidence of a bubble?
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Futbalfantic said:
Every bull market ever?
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Page 5 btw
 
It’s only a bubble if it returns to pre inflation levels….
 
Ron said:
Only it’s not.
Rental doesn’t include property tax, repairs, structure insurance etc.
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Spoken like a slum Lord that owns his home as well as renting homes to others for profit 😇🤘🏼
 
CasterTroy said:
Spoken like a slum Lord that owns his home as well as renting homes to others for profit 😇🤘🏼
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While partially true…

The impetus was my son calling me this am telling me that a pipe burst in the house he rents, flooded his space and he was moving into a hotel paid by the owner for the next few weeks. And the HVAC went out as was replaced two weeks ago.

That owner has had a $25k loss this week. It’s cost he and I $0
 
My values look bubbly. Looks like a slowly deflating bubble. Id be happy if it settled around 100. Fyi, I don't have anywhere near the lowest value shown in it.

Edit: if anyone wants to rent it for zillows estimate, I'll pull up a trailer and rent you the house
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ncpartsguy said:
It pains me, but it's time to list the second home.

I hope I haven't missed the peak.....

You can find the listing here.
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I knew which one that was gonna be before clicking the link, haha. Super nice place, but $30mil really needs to come with more acreage and more house. 5.86 acres and 10k sqft is peasantry when you're talking $30 million dollar properties.
 
Starting to see a few houses in my hood sit for sale for a while now.
 
drkelly said:
Starting to see a few houses in my hood sit for sale for a while now.
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Ditto, folks down the street have had one up for two months now. Unheard of this time last year.
 
My wife’s aunt pulled hers off the market it had such little interest. It’s an extremely nice house in a prominent neighborhood. Still smells new inside. It was listed for a few months. I kept telling them that they need to get it listed a while ago, but they sat on it too long. They’re going to try again in the spring/summer. We shall see. It’s definitely slowing down.
 
That rent payment pays the insurance premium each month and sets some aside for deductibles. And the house should continue to appreciate. But yea.... having to deal with it sucks for the homeowner.
Ron said:
While partially true…

The impetus was my son calling me this am telling me that a pipe burst in the house he rents, flooded his space and he was moving into a hotel paid by the owner for the next few weeks. And the HVAC went out as was replaced two weeks ago.

That owner has had a $25k loss this week. It’s cost he and I $0
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