Automotive bubble....has it burst?

shawn said:
Car loans are a real problem right now. Banks have tightened lending requirements. Lots of folks don't qualify anymore.
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Arguably the way it should have been all along. Not everyone needs to be able to finance a new car, just like not everyone needs to be able to finance a house.
 
paradisePWoffrd said:
Arguably the way it should have been all along
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No, fallout from liquidity/deposit flight problems with regional banks. They're originators of lots of car loans. We're not talking subprime, ppl with 700-750 scores.
 
paradisePWoffrd said:
Arguably the way it should have been all along. Not everyone needs to be able to finance a new car, just like not everyone needs to be able to finance a house.
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Except now we're going to punish those with good credit with an additional percent or 2 so we can give the sub-400 crowd better "Opportunities"

Because just like "equal opportunity employment" and MBE, it's clear they cannot do it on their own (which, if you really think about it, is a true insult instead of a leg up) they MUST have help from social justice warrior Karens who fight their fight FOR them
 
shawn said:
Mind you, this thread is 16 months old, and we're still waiting on the "market correction" that's coming any day now.

It may eventually come, but trust me, you won't like what it means for vehicle prices to go back to pre-2020 prices.
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Anyone expecting that is a fool. I think most people would just like to be able to buy a new car/truck at the same percent below MSRP that they could pre-Covid instead of paying MSRP or higher.
 
shawn said:
No, fallout from liquidity/deposit flight problems with regional banks. They're originators of lots of car loans. We're not talking subprime, ppl with 700-750 scores.
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Right.
Depending on which side of the balance equation you choose to look at - inflation is real and at a more aggressive micro rate than it has been in most of this forums member’s memorable history. (Ie most of us only know Reaganomics inflation by history books and didn’t “feel” it - so many have a textbook knowledge intellectual understanding of it but not a comprehensive experience of it.

But it isn’t the credit score that’s preventing auto loan approvals it’s the industry accepted debt to Income ratio. As car prices have escalated - both with inflation and other market factors- at a near exponent of salary increases the D:I ratio is broken. And they can’t extend loans long enough to offset the price increase and maintain the monthly number.

I believe:
There will either be a massive painful market correction to rollback much of the last 3 years inflation OR there will be a more pronounced wage escalation - which ironically would in theory stoke the flames in macro inflation even hotter.

People aren’t changing (reducing) their expectations of lifestyle - it’s not in the species nature.
 
benXJ said:
A. Since when was a brand new car part of this American Dream thing?
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You fail marketing and sales history 101
 
Ron said:
But it isn’t the credit score that’s preventing auto loan approvals it’s the industry accepted debt to Income ratio. As car prices have escalated - both with inflation and other market factors- at a near exponent of salary increases the D:I ratio is broken. And they can’t extend loans long enough to offset the price increase and maintain the monthly number.
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Possibly contributory, but no.

This: Lots of interesting news today

Leads to this:
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RatLabGuy said:
You fail marketing and sales history 101
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I mean I guess it is, eventually. And yea...the marketing teams want you (everyone) to buy a new car, but very few first gen migrants that want to experience the 'american dream' are buying a brand new car.

After you migrate here, get a place to stay, keep your kids fed, open a secure bank account, start a small local biz with used equipment or labor biz, maybe rent a nicer place....then buy a place....then educate your kids.....not live in fear of cartels and super corrupt governments

Then yea, that brand new car financed at 7 years is the next step.

Even being able to afford ANY car is a dream to many.
 
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benXJ said:
I mean I guess it is, eventually. And yea...the marketing teams want you (everyone) to buy a new car, but very few first gen migrants that want to experience the 'american dream' are buying a brand new car.

After you migrate here, get a place to stay, keep your kids fed, open a secure bank account, start a small local biz with used equipment or labor biz, maybe rent a nicer place....then buy a place....then educate your kids.....not live in fear of cartels and super corrupt governments

Then yea, that brand new car financed at 7 years is the next step.

Even being able to afford ANY car is a dream to many.
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Huh? Where the hell did 1st gen migrants come into this context? Why are you so focused on them when they are a small % of the population, and hardly relevant here?
 
Ironically I just got an email from First Citizens offering car loans for 5.99%
 
RatLabGuy said:
Huh? Where the hell did 1st gen migrants come into this context? Why are you so focused on them when they are a small % of the population, and hardly relevant here?
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You're being a bit sensitive on this one. He didn't seem to be knocking immigrants in the op. He was pointing out that "buying a brand new car" was not part of the American dream that people immigrate here for.
 
awheelterd said:
You're being a bit sensitive on this one. He didn't seem to be knocking immigrants in the op. He was pointing out that "buying a brand new car" was not part of the American dream that people immigrate here for.
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yeah I get that, I'm just wondering why immigration even needed to be brought into the discussion yet again. The "American Dream" applies to all of us, its not like auto marketing is focused on them.

Back to the point, the notion of owning a car, especially a shiny new car, has been part of the American ethos for a very long time. A huge portion of how we arrange our cities and lives are based on it. This is nothing new.
 
WUT...?
Just got this email from Carvana. Awhile (years) ago I priced an F150 for a friend.
Makes no sense
1683825501669.png
 
finance.yahoo.com

Used-car market in ‘uncharted territory’ as high prices remain sticky, Edmunds says

With spring car buying season in full swing, those looking for a deal in the used car market are likely not going to find one. According to a new report titled “Used Market Enters Uncharted Territory Post-Pandemic” released from car-shopping site Edmunds.com, though used car prices softened a...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

Edmunds’ data scoured from dealer retail pricing finds that the average used vehicle transaction price in Q1 slipped 6.4% year-over-year, but is still up 44% from five years ago.
 
drkelly said:
finance.yahoo.com

Used-car market in ‘uncharted territory’ as high prices remain sticky, Edmunds says

With spring car buying season in full swing, those looking for a deal in the used car market are likely not going to find one. According to a new report titled “Used Market Enters Uncharted Territory Post-Pandemic” released from car-shopping site Edmunds.com, though used car prices softened a...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

Edmunds’ data scoured from dealer retail pricing finds that the average used vehicle transaction price in Q1 slipped 6.4% year-over-year, but is still up 44% from five years ago.
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inconceivable.jpg
 
I've been browsing for used vans and thought the prices were nuts, so I went on Rice Toyota website to see what a new van costs. They are still marking them up $5k over MSRP. No wonder used ones are still priced so high. Fawk that. I'll keep driving what I've got.

XLE model:
1685643307656.png


Platinum model:
1685643332128.png
 
You just need to find the right website.
Helped my neighbor buy a new Ram last week.

While all the local dealers on a 1500 laramie were MSRP or just over - there is a dealer in Louisiana that was $23% under sticker.
 
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Yeah, you should be able to get one for MSRP. Of course it's gonna be about $50k. I'll be happy to put you first in line for our 2012 Sienna AWD Limited when the new ones go on sale in the next year or two.
 
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