Automotive bubble....has it burst?

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So 6 months and repos will be all over?
 
10% of loans are a month behind. And that was for end of 2021. That is quite an amazing statistic.
 
DSM Turbos said:
it was bound to happen at some point.

seeing all these people driving brand new 60k cars living in their 500k house knowing they must be strapped and leveraged out the ass

if anybody is surprised, i'm not sure why
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But what years dollars are we counting those in?!?
 
DSM Turbos said:
it was bound to happen at some point.

seeing all these people driving brand new 60k cars living in their 500k house knowing they must be strapped and leveraged out the ass

if anybody is surprised, i'm not sure why
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I'm surprised just because the thought of buying something you can't afford and owing insane amounts of money just blows my mind. Never even a possibility in my head. But I know I'm in the minority.
 
Y'all fall for the biggest bullshit headlines.

10% of the loans have *ever* been 30d late. They're not all 30d late right now.

Delinquency rates are currently well below normal and are expected to rise .... to return to normal.
 
LBarr2002 said:
I'm surprised just because the thought of buying something you can't afford and owing insane amounts of money just blows my mind. Never even a possibility in my head. But I know I'm in the minority.
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I am the same as you.
What I have come to realize from talking to some - is a whole lot of people did stupid. Over bought homes, and then the market explosion allowed them to sell and/or refinance to pull out a bunch of cash.
They saw the positive and mis-attributed it to their pleasurable behavior. They then repeat the bad action because they no longer fear the consequence.
 
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shawn said:
Y'all fall for the biggest bullshit headlines.

10% of the loans have *ever* been 30d late. They're not all 30d late right now.

Delinquency rates are currently well below normal and are expected to rise .... to return to normal.
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Id honestly like to see your stat source for this.

We are currently doing a project installing back up systems for one of the largest dealerships in the country across 80 some odd stores.

According to one of their GMs repossessions are currently at the 3rd highest level ever for this dealership who has been in business since the 40s.
Maybe its just their brands, or just their customers or maybe they did more risky finance...certainly there are reasons why your statement could eb true and he is seeing what he is seeing.

But I'd love to analyze the source.
 
Ron said:
Id honestly like to see your stat source for this.
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It's really easy.

Click on the WRAL article.

In the body of the article, click the link to the Experian article that they're badly paraphrasing.

Skim down to this part:
1657657407323.png


If you then apply your critical thinking skills, it makes sense. Banks flag your loans if they have ever been 30/60/90/etc days past due. Those are the records that Experian taps into to establish credit scores.
 
shawn said:
It's really easy.

Click on the WRAL article.

In the body of the article, click the link to the Experian article that they're badly paraphrasing.

Skim down to this part:
View attachment 376618

If you then apply your critical thinking skills, it makes sense. Banks flag your loans if they have ever been 30/60/90/etc days past due. Those are the records that Experian taps into to establish credit scores.
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Thats quiet the leap of logic you made.

they used the ever more than 30 past to rank the states. Thats one data point.
In a separate data point they also add that
North Carolina, 10.3 percent of people with car loans are 30 or more days behind, with 5.8 percent of people behind by 60 days and 4.1 percent behind by three months or more, according to Experian - a credit reporting company. The auto loan delinquency data is from the third quarter of 2021, so before inflation and interest rates went up, North Carolinians were struggling to make payments
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That is a separate and secondary data point.

And neither of them even address your assertion that
Delinquency rates are currently well below normal and are expected to rise .... to return to normal.
Click to expand...

And with just a few moments on google I find this:
1657658132448.png


From: US Auto Loans Delinquent by 90 or More Days

So that data seems to indicate that current delinquency rates are in fact higher than normal AND continuing to rise.

Between this thread and the housing thread you seemed determined to spread the word that "everything is fine. Nothing to see here." I understand why you (and I) hope that to be the case for the future of our respective (interconnected) professional industries.
But saying it doesnt make it so. No matter how many times, nor how loud, nor how definitive you say it.


This should probably be in a separate post but....what the hell its already in here...
From my chair

I don't think you have accepted yet that you aren't normal. You are extremely talented and extremely blessed. As am I and many in this community.
Reminder the median hosuehold income in this country is $69k COMBINED.
Someone $750 past due owes 1.5% of their total annual income. That's a lot to make up. Triple that. It probably isn't happening.

And that includes places with a lot lower cost of living than RDU a lot higher...
 
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