Random Thoughts.....

awheelterd said:
Said electrical company essentially folded yesterday. I believe there will be quite a few to follow now that new house starts are slowing and spec houses are starting to sit a little while
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As you know a large chunk of our customers are ECs and MCs.

You just identified one part of the problem. Me and the other seasoned guys have been talking for ~9 months. Lots of companies are broke and dont know it yet.
If you do what I do as long as Ive done it, you become amazed at the guys who routinely right 7 figure POs and dont understand pretty basic financials.

There is a lot of in process work out there and the subs are over extended and dont realzie it because they haven't completed a draw audit. As material prices have increased mid project, subs work is price locked on bid day values. So they happily toil away not realizing that the last 30% of the job is no longer funded.

Its going to get bad. My crystal ball says the wheels start to shake late Q1 next year and by Q3 they are fully off.
Hard times are coming - I think. Some good folks are going down, sadly.
The ant and the grasshopper...
 
Ron said:
There is a lot of in process work out there and the subs are over extended and dont realzie it because they haven't completed a draw audit.
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I only "LOVE" your post because so few folks "get it"


Trane is now telling us 32 week lead times on BASIC 5 ton units. I'm having to put out early chiller packages for Guilford county schools because ALL of the chiller MFGs are telling us 60week plus lead times. That PO has to be written and the submittal approved before the factory starts the build. There aren't many MC's that can float multiple jobs with over a year delivery on PO's. Especially now.
 
CasterTroy said:
ALL of the chiller MFGs are telling us 60week plus lead times.
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How is that even possible? I feel like I could just about start a mine, foundry, steel mill, and assembly shop to build a chiller in that time.
 
jeepinmatt said:
How is that even possible?
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Control modules, both for chiller command center, as well as ECM motors.

Second part is labor force
jeepinmatt said:
I feel like I could just about start a mine, foundry, steel mill, and assembly shop to build a chiller in that time.
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All by yourself? Find the workers, and pay them enough to still make a profit (right now)

Hell, I'll give you $1000 to find ME someone that knows revit, willing to live in the triad and show up to my office every day and put forth 1/3 of the work I can do in a weeks time. I could give a flying shit if they know mechanical/Plumbing/electrical.

I've got more than a dozen small business owners in Winston that would likely match that offer for a live body, that can work a full 8 hrs and actually produce something
 
CasterTroy said:
Control modules, both for chiller command center, as well as ECM motors.

Second part is labor force

All by yourself? Find the workers, and pay them enough to still make a profit (right now)

Hell, I'll give you $1000 to find ME someone that knows revit, willing to live in the triad and show up to my office every day and put forth 1/3 of the work I can do in a weeks time. I could give a flying shit if they know mechanical/Plumbing/electrical.

I've got more than a dozen small business owners in Winston that would likely match that offer for a live body, that can work a full 8 hrs and actually produce something
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Anybody in the steel biz?
 
CasterTroy said:
Control modules, both for chiller command center, as well as ECM motors.

Second part is labor force

All by yourself? Find the workers, and pay them enough to still make a profit (right now)
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See, there you go moving the goalposts :flipoff2:

First it was chiller, now its chiller and control modules and ECM motors, then its all that stuff and labor force. Friggin democratic socialist. Next thing you'll be wanting someone to do your job for you too!
CasterTroy said:
Hell, I'll give you $1000 to find ME someone that knows revit, willing to live in the triad and show up to my office every day and put forth 1/3 of the work I can do in a weeks time. I could give a flying shit if they know mechanical/Plumbing/electrical.
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Ha! That didn't take long! :p
 
jeepinmatt said:
See, there you go moving the goalposts :flipoff2:
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I'm cleaning out the skeletons in my closet to run for office of some kind. Tired of being poor. Ready to be worth a few $mil and own multiple homes
 
jeepinmatt said:
How is that even possible? I feel like I could just about start a mine, foundry, steel mill, and assembly shop to build a chiller in that time.
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I explain to people literally every day currently...(chillers are like generators.) The normal lead time is 8-12 weeks pre covid BS. It doesnt take 8-12 weeks to build them. In today's manufacturing environment it takes 4-6 hours. Given that they are made in a 3 shift 7 day plant, the rest of the time is literally waiting your spot in line.

Now compound this with Just In Time manufacturing, there isnt an iso 9001 plant in north america with more then 72 hours worth of parts on hand. Hell the plants dont even have floor space or racking to put parts if they did have them. In a typical generator there are around 7,500 parts. All it takes is one supplier to not show up the day before and your unit cant be built.


CasterTroy said:
I only "LOVE" your post because so few folks "get it"


Trane is now telling us 32 week lead times on BASIC 5 ton units. I'm having to put out early chiller packages for Guilford county schools because ALL of the chiller MFGs are telling us 60week plus lead times. That PO has to be written and the submittal approved before the factory starts the build. There aren't many MC's that can float multiple jobs with over a year delivery on PO's. Especially now.
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Luckily we are net 30 after delivery. So the issue isnt float, per se. Its all the pipe, wire, fittings...the small things that contractors dont buy in bulk at start of the job. They buy as they go. Those have all doubled during the project.
This is a REAL example Im dealing with right now for one of my customers. Rounded for simplicity.
Gen and Switchgear - $350k
Concrete Pad - $15k
Wire and Pipe - $200K
Labor - $40k
Total - $605,000
Overhead (10%) - $60,500
Profit (20%) - $121,000
Bid -786,500

He ordered then gen and the SWGR but not the Wire or pipe because of 50 week lead times.
Wire price has increased 40% since bid day. That $200k is now $280k.
His concrete sub has gone up 50% (7,500)
And his labor rate has increased just to keep his guys from sitting at home and now his labor number should be $52k.

So in short the material is now close to built, but if he starts the job he is now looking at working for 2 months to lose $10k. He told the owner. 'Find someone else. I'm not going to do it.'
Sure they can sue him and get a judgement. But they've now got 6 other bids. In todays dollars the cheapest bid they have received is just over $900k.

That is all fine and well.

Take that same scenario on a building project - and that contractor is 9 months along and paid out all his labor and too much for all his wire....and now he has to pay me and doesnt have enough left in his contract with the GC.
That contractor is broke and doesnt know it.
 
Dropped my pontoon off to get serviced today at the local dude up the street. Good ole country boy. He kept me there for probably an hour talking about everything under the sun. How he gets any work done I’ll never know. He does this to me every time. He sent me on my way with a sweatshirt with his business logo and a frozen ziplock bag full of bass fillet’s. I stopped back by with a cooler full of deer meat for him. I love living in the country. Swapping frozen dead stuff with friends.
 
CasterTroy said:
Control modules, both for chiller command center, as well as ECM motors.

Second part is labor force

All by yourself? Find the workers, and pay them enough to still make a profit (right now)

Hell, I'll give you $1000 to find ME someone that knows revit, willing to live in the triad and show up to my office every day and put forth 1/3 of the work I can do in a weeks time. I could give a flying shit if they know mechanical/Plumbing/electrical.

I've got more than a dozen small business owners in Winston that would likely match that offer for a live body, that can work a full 8 hrs and actually produce something
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How much these triad jobs pay?
 
benXJ said:
How much these triad jobs pay?
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Not as much as Raleigh or Charlotte jobs because housing and general cost of living is about half. Hence why we can't get anyone to come here. Well that, and the triad rolls up the streets and shuts completely down after about 11. Only thing open after that is taco bell and awful house
 
benXJ said:
Why does a judge have to get involved and 'request' police body cam footage?
Why is the footage not livestreamed and recorded 24/7 for anyone to view at anytime?
We demanded and pay for 100% of the infrastructure.
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Well, for one, imagine the bandwidth and storage and infrastructure required to livestream about 300k bodycams to anyone anywhere at any time. Also, on behalf of those who don't trust the government, I also don't trust bad actors and people who would try to track and ambush police and use it to their advantage.
 
I dont see a need for it to be live-streamed but it should be as simple as a FOIA request to get body cam footage. It took like 6 months, countless protests, some guy on twitter, and an act of God to get gastonia to release the body cam footage of the PD tasing Joshua's service animal.
 
benXJ said:
Ok...so maybe not Livestream, but my point still stands. Why can't I walk into a police department and ask for officer Johns body cam footage from today?
Where is the breakdown? What leg are the police standing on to keep it secret?
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So you think that any citizen should see literally anything and everything that any officer saw during that day?

Do you not see any major privacy concerns about that?
 
benXJ said:
Ok...so maybe not Livestream, but my point still stands. Why can't I walk into a police department and ask for officer Johns body cam footage from today?
Where is the breakdown? What leg are the police standing on to keep it secret?
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Iirc it's state law in NC. As you said earlier it's up to a judge to decide. The gastonia incident was the proof of concept/launch for Spike Cohen's PAC "You Are The Power". That's the only reason I know about it at all. I can get you in touch with the regional coordinator if you want to know more about what was involved or if you have a case you would like to get more attention.
 
So if a cop is called to your hosue for no reason, you want the footage into your home to be available to evryone>

I can see a greatway to case a joint via a LEO body cam.
 
Ron said:
So if a cop is called to your hosue for no reason, you want the footage into your home to be available to evryone>

I can see a greatway to case a joint via a LEO body cam.
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Come back with a warrant. Not sure why anyone would open the door.
 
RatLabGuy said:
So you think that any citizen should see literally anything and everything that any officer saw during that day?

Do you not see any major privacy concerns about that?
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Aren't they set up to only record when lights/sirens/official duties are happening? Not when they are in the bathroom. Duh.
Where is this cop going while on duty that is suspect?
What is this cop doing while on duty that they would be ashamed of?
We the taxpayers and voters asked and are paying for it.....so I'm still unsure why it was deployed in such a cumbersome, lack of transparent method (except that is the gov't way.....maybe that is just it?)
I'm not involved in a particular case, just more of a curiosity as I watch a number of police cam vids and often hear something like "after 6 months and 75 lawyers spending $10,000, the footage was released"
Seems that if we could see every police/citizen interaction within days, unedited, alot of issues could be avoided...hot head cops might think twice before getting too aggressive with a grandma over a mask 'violation' and we wouldn't have 'hands up don't shoot' riots that are often proven to be based on lies and misinformation.
We have the tech...why are we scared to use it?
 
benXJ said:
Aren't they set up to only record when lights/sirens/official duties are happening? Not when they are in the bathroom. Duh.
Where is this cop going while on duty that is suspect?
What is this cop doing while on duty that they would be ashamed of?
We the taxpayers and voters asked and are paying for it.....so I'm still unsure why it was deployed in such a cumbersome, lack of transparent method (except that is the gov't way.....maybe that is just it?)
I'm not involved in a particular case, just more of a curiosity as I watch a number of police cam vids and often hear something like "after 6 months and 75 lawyers spending $10,000, the footage was released"
Seems that if we could see every police/citizen interaction within days, unedited, alot of issues could be avoided...hot head cops might think twice before getting too aggressive with a grandma over a mask 'violation' and we wouldn't have 'hands up don't shoot' riots that are often proven to be based on lies and misinformation.
We have the tech...why are we scared to use it?
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Lord knows I’ve been quick to bark against over beating or over reaching LEO…

But let’s look at another angle.
Cop is called to grandmas house because she locked her self outside.( It happens more than you’d think) There is gramma with her grandma sagging boobs all humiliated …
Let’s broadcast that to the internet so creeps can come harass grandma.

Just one example of hundreds I can imagine.

Or what about your relatives lieing on the road dieing after a crash let’s broadcast that
 
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